Quote from: bitmover on Today at 01:23:55 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 11, 2025, 11:23:41 PM

So, for example if a person is considers his entry-level fuck you status to be $80k per year and that would be $6,666 per month, so then if he were be considering that he could employ a 10% withdrawal rate based on the 200-WMA value, then at today's 200-WMA values of $49,681, he needs to have a $800k bitcoin portfolio size based on the 200-WMA, which would signify that today his threshold level of bitcoin would have to be 16.103 BTC to get him to his 200-WMA having a $800k value. Meaning that he would have to have at least that amount for that withdrawal rate, and surely I have recently been recommending to always be withdrawing from the overaccumulated amount, so if he has more that 16.103 then he would not want his quantity of BTC, at least as of today (July 11, 2025) to drop below 16.103 BTC.

Currently the tool is showing a monthly withdrawal allowance of 0.13419167 BTC (or $15,550), which truly is $8,884 higher than $6,666 allowance, which should have had given him a monthly withdrawal rate of 0.057689312 BTC ($6,666 / $115,880).

Currently, the tool calculates basically everything based in the Spot price.

Adding a button to change the calculations to 200WMA price would allow you to see the 200WMA scenario directly, and you would see the 6,666 allowance instead of the 15,500.

I think this is extremely conservative, as I believe it is unlikely we will ever see the 200WMA price again. But it is an interesting perspective.

Should I add that button? It could be something like the Logarithmic scale checkbox or a switch.

Quote

I checked on a few of my devices, and on the Mac, the brush chart shows up in Safari but it does not show up in Chrome.
On IOS the brush chart shows up in Chrome but not in Safari.

I don't have an IOS to try, but it might be something in your cache. Please try to clear cache and reload (CTRL+F5 in windows or Command + Shift + R in IOS)

Some kind of a button sounds good, and I know that the way that I have been describing how to do it is different from what currently shows on the website, even though I personally can still figure out what I need to figure out, but it may well be a good way to toggle and to see if that actually ends up addressing my concerns.

Regarding your suggestion that I am being conservative, I am not going to deny that there is a bit of conservativeness in several ways that I think about time-based sustainable withdrawal, yet I am also claiming that 10% annual withdrawal is sustainable in bitcoin when 4% might not be sustainable in traditional investments, yet I am caveating my approach by saying that it needs to be measured from the 200-WMA rather than from spot price, even though surely whenever we buy and sell, we are doing it at spot price, so yeah, there is ongoingly a difference between the 200-WMA and spot price, which is part of the value of this cite (tool) to show that difference on any date in bitcoin's history.

You know that so far in bitcoin's history, every single cycle, spot price has returned to touch upon the 200-WMA, and holy shit in 2022 and 2023, we spent right around 16 months from June 2022 to October 2023 at various stages of being mostly below the 200-WMA, and even reaching some short periods of 35% below the 200-WMA. I think that the odds are pretty low that BTC prices won't touch the 200-WMA again at some point whether in this upcoming cycle or maybe in the next cycle.. yet at the same time, I have started to develop a tentative theory to proclaim that during the bull market, the BTC price tends to stay at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, yet during the bear market, there are decent odds that the BTC price will either touch the 200-WMA or alternatively within a very close range, such as less than 10% distance.

For sure, aspects of bitcoin's price dynamics have some decently good chances of changing into the future, so we cannot overly rely upon any one model or any overly narrow parameters and/or expectations... yet at the same time, I am not going to give up upon past BTC price dynamics that I consider to be relevant, even though at the same time we are for sure not locked into any of BTC's price dynamics having to hold as if they were mandatory requirements.