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Version 2
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Scraped on 13/07/2025, 02:24:50 UTC
If projecting the trend from the latest 10x period then it is 2518 days until 1mil, but if we project based on the cycle before 9and the fact that the days jumped almost 4X in comparison with the prior 10x period), then it is 3438 days.
In actual dates:
2518 days from today is June 1 2032 (1115->1882->2518 (2612-94))
3438 day from today is Nov 30, 2034 (352->1115->3438 (3532-94))
A bit long, but possible, I guess.
In actual dates:
2518 days from today is June 1 2032 (1115->1882->2518 (2612-94))
3438 day from today is Nov 30, 2034 (352->1115->3438 (3532-94))
A bit long, but possible, I guess.
Those are some bearish and depressing time-line estimate numbers you are providing Biodom.
Sure we might spend quite a bit of time in the 6 digits, but we could go up to the 7 digits and then return back down to the 6 digits, and surely there is no guarantee that we are done with the 5 digits, yet, even though we are quite likely done with the lower 5 digits and below.
We could even spend 2-3 years in 6 digits and then a few hundred days in 7 digits and then return to 6 digits for another year or so, and that still might ony amount to 1,500 days or less, similar to 3 digits and 4 digits.
I am not claiming to know the answer, even though I doubt that there is any meaningful need to end up spending more than 2,000 days in 6 digits...even though it is difficult to know from this relatively beginning point, with less than 100 days already in 6 digits (and the lowest of the low of the 6 digits at that).
I understand that there are real world consequences to how high and how fast bitcoin goes up to higher prices, and it could be that gold parity is right around the bridge between 6 digits and 7 digits, at least by the time we get to 7 digits gold might be getting there at the same time... in terms of a $20 Trillion-ish market cap.
Hardly 'depressing' as 2518 days is about 6.89 years.
In order to get to 1mil from here in 2518 days you need 38%/year appreciation.
Saylor predicts 30% yearly appreciation during the next 20 years, so the first 7 years (6.89 to be exact) very well may be at 38% per year average.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/strategys-michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-will-grow-30-year-next-20-years-could-he-be-right
On July 12 2020 bitcoin was $9589, so since then it appreciated 12.25X with an average of 65% per annum (approximately).
On July 12, 2015, bitcoin was $284.65, so since then it appreciated 413.21X with an average of 83% per annum (approximately).
As you can see, there was a smaller per annum appreciation in the last 5 years vs the prior 5 (specifically, appreciation between July 12 2015 and July 12, 2020 was 102% per annum).
Therefore, 38% per annum in the next 7 years or about strikes me as quite reasonable.
Version 1
Scraped on 13/07/2025, 02:00:07 UTC
If projecting the trend from the latest 10x period then it is 2518 days until 1mil, but if we project based on the cycle before 9and the fact that the days jumped almost 4X in comparison with the prior 10x period), then it is 3438 days.
In actual dates:
2518 days from today is June 1 2032 (1115->1882->2518 (2612-94))
3438 day from today is Nov 30, 2034 (352->1115->3438 (3532-94))
A bit long, but possible, I guess.
In actual dates:
2518 days from today is June 1 2032 (1115->1882->2518 (2612-94))
3438 day from today is Nov 30, 2034 (352->1115->3438 (3532-94))
A bit long, but possible, I guess.
Those are some bearish and depressing time-line estimate numbers you are providing Biodom.
Sure we might spend quite a bit of time in the 6 digits, but we could go up to the 7 digits and then return back down to the 6 digits, and surely there is no guarantee that we are done with the 5 digits, yet, even though we are quite likely done with the lower 5 digits and below.
We could even spend 2-3 years in 6 digits and then a few hundred days in 7 digits and then return to 6 digits for another year or so, and that still might ony amount to 1,500 days or less, similar to 3 digits and 4 digits.
I am not claiming to know the answer, even though I doubt that there is any meaningful need to end up spending more than 2,000 days in 6 digits...even though it is difficult to know from this relatively beginning point, with less than 100 days already in 6 digits (and the lowest of the low of the 6 digits at that).
I understand that there are real world consequences to how high and how fast bitcoin goes up to higher prices, and it could be that gold parity is right around the bridge between 6 digits and 7 digits, at least by the time we get to 7 digits gold might be getting there at the same time... in terms of a $20 Trillion-ish market cap.
In order to get to 1mil from here you need 38%/year appreciation.
Saylor predicts 30% yearly appreciation during the next 20 years, so the first 7 years (6.89 to be exact) very well may be at 38% per year average.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/strategys-michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-will-grow-30-year-next-20-years-could-he-be-right
On July 12 2020 bitcoin was $9589, so since then it
As you can see, there was a smaller per annum appreciation in the last 5 years vs the prior 5 (specifically, appreciation between July 12 2015 and July 12, 2020 was 102% per annum).
Therefore, 38% per annum in the next 7 years or
Original archived Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Scraped on 13/07/2025, 01:55:08 UTC
If projecting the trend from the latest 10x period then it is 2518 days until 1mil, but if we project based on the cycle before 9and the fact that the days jumped almost 4X in comparison with the prior 10x period), then it is 3438 days.
In actual dates:
2518 days from today is June 1 2032 (1115->1882->2518 (2612-94))
3438 day from today is Nov 30, 2034 (352->1115->3438 (3532-94))
A bit long, but possible, I guess.
In actual dates:
2518 days from today is June 1 2032 (1115->1882->2518 (2612-94))
3438 day from today is Nov 30, 2034 (352->1115->3438 (3532-94))
A bit long, but possible, I guess.
Those are some bearish and depressing time-line estimate numbers you are providing Biodom.
Sure we might spend quite a bit of time in the 6 digits, but we could go up to the 7 digits and then return back down to the 6 digits, and surely there is no guarantee that we are done with the 5 digits, yet, even though we are quite likely done with the lower 5 digits and below.
We could even spend 2-3 years in 6 digits and then a few hundred days in 7 digits and then return to 6 digits for another year or so, and that still might ony amount to 1,500 days or less, similar to 3 digits and 4 digits.
I am not claiming to know the answer, even though I doubt that there is any meaningful need to end up spending more than 2,000 days in 6 digits...even though it is difficult to know from this relatively beginning point, with less than 100 days already in 6 digits (and the lowest of the low of the 6 digits at that).
I understand that there are real world consequences to how high and how fast bitcoin goes up to higher prices, and it could be that gold parity is right around the bridge between 6 digits and 7 digits, at least by the time we get to 7 digits gold might be getting there at the same time... in terms of a $20 Trillion-ish market cap.
hardly 'depressing' 2518 days is about 6.89 years.
In order to get to 1mil from here you need 38%/year appreciation.
Saylor predicts 30% yearly appreciation during the next 20 years, so first 7 years (6.89 to be exact) very well may be at 38% per year average.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/strategys-michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-will-grow-30-year-next-20-years-could-he-be-right
On July 12 2020 bitcoin was $9589, so since then it is appreciated 12.25X with an average of 65% per annum (approximately).
on July 12, 2015, bitcoin was $284.65, so since then it appreciated 413.21X with an average of 83% per annum 9approximately0.
As you can see, there was a smaller per annum appreciation in the last 5 years vs the prior 5.
Therefore, 38% per annum in the next 7 years or so strikes me as quite reasonable.