Next scheduled rescrape ... never
Version 2
Last scraped
Edited on 20/07/2025, 22:47:19 UTC
[edited out]
Hardly 'depressing' as 2518 days is about 6.89 years.In order to get to 1mil from here in 2518 days you need 38%/year appreciation.
Saylor predicts 30% yearly appreciation during the next 20 years, so the first 7 years (6.89 to be exact) very well may be at 38% per year average.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/strategys-michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-will-grow-30-year-next-20-years-could-he-be-right
On July 12 2020 bitcoin was $9589, so since then it appreciated 12.25X with an average of 65% per annum (approximately).
On July 12, 2015, bitcoin was $284.65, so since then it appreciated 413.21X with an average of 83% per annum (approximately).
As you can see, there was a smaller per annum appreciation in the last 5 years vs the prior 5 (specifically, appreciation between July 12 2015 and July 12, 2020 was 102% per annum).
Therefore, 38% per annum in the next 7 years or about strikes me as quite reasonable.
Like I said, we could go up into the 7 digits and then come back into the 6 digits, so it could take a while to determine if the bet is won.. o
Or maybe I could bet you that in the next 6.89 years or maybe even in the next 7 years, bitcoin will have had spent less than 2,518 days in 6 digits (which is presuming that it would spend a decent number of those other days, perhaps more than a few hundred in 7 digits). So then the bet would be resolved 7 years from now. I am not sure what the oracle for resolving the bet would be, if there is a reliable website or way to track.
Some other time, perhaps.
You gave a more bearish and a less bearish scenario, and I want with your less bearish scenario to suggest a bet, and sure maybe every proposition that a guy makes does not have to be bettable, but still you presented the scenario as if it were your base case... and maybe if your not willing to stand behind it, then it is not your base case.
I know that we are not guaranteed to go up or even to touch $1million in less than 7 years, yet the fact of the matter is that none of us hardly know, and we hardly have any clue in terms of the possibility that we could hit $1million in this cycle.. and even if we don't it could happen early in the next cycle... or even if we presume that this cycle ONLY has the rest of this calendar year (at most - as you seemed to also suggest, perhaps in another of your bearish posts), if we add a whole other cycle onto that (to the extent that cycles still exist, which both of us seem to be presuming that cycles still exist), then we have 5 years to finish the remaining of this cycle and then a whole new cycle to be able to touch upon $1 million and perhaps to start to spend some time in the 7 digits, which is still 2 years shorter than your 7 year timeline in which you think that we will be spending in 6 digits.
At this time, I am starting to question the supposed reasonableness of your reason. .. not that your reasoning wasn't in jeopardy at earlier points in time from the point of view of this here cat.
I am not sure what is there to bet on? My opinion did not say that we won't reach 1mil before 2518 days. Besides, it was (and is) an approximation.
The number of days comes from the math in OP (prior poster) table.
If you want to bet on something: I will bet you that bitcoin would be less than $100K/btc at some point between now and the next 1826 days (365x4+366 for 2028).
I can bet $100 (in btc), but would like a $250 commitment from you (1:2.5 ratio) since you keep calling me "bearish" (which is
This, I assume, would make you the "bullish one".
The bet would close on July 14 2030 or before if one of the bettors concede or if the price reaches below $100K.
You say what?
Version 1
Scraped on 13/07/2025, 22:52:20 UTC
[edited out]
Hardly 'depressing' as 2518 days is about 6.89 years.In order to get to 1mil from here in 2518 days you need 38%/year appreciation.
Saylor predicts 30% yearly appreciation during the next 20 years, so the first 7 years (6.89 to be exact) very well may be at 38% per year average.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/strategys-michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-will-grow-30-year-next-20-years-could-he-be-right
On July 12 2020 bitcoin was $9589, so since then it appreciated 12.25X with an average of 65% per annum (approximately).
On July 12, 2015, bitcoin was $284.65, so since then it appreciated 413.21X with an average of 83% per annum (approximately).
As you can see, there was a smaller per annum appreciation in the last 5 years vs the prior 5 (specifically, appreciation between July 12 2015 and July 12, 2020 was 102% per annum).
Therefore, 38% per annum in the next 7 years or about strikes me as quite reasonable.
Like I said, we could go up into the 7 digits and then come back into the 6 digits, so it could take a while to determine if the bet is won.. o
Or maybe I could bet you that in the next 6.89 years or maybe even in the next 7 years, bitcoin will have had spent less than 2,518 days in 6 digits (which is presuming that it would spend a decent number of those other days, perhaps more than a few hundred in 7 digits). So then the bet would be resolved 7 years from now. I am not sure what the oracle for resolving the bet would be, if there is a reliable website or way to track.
Some other time, perhaps.
You gave a more bearish and a less bearish scenario, and I want with your less bearish scenario to suggest a bet, and sure maybe every proposition that a guy makes does not have to be bettable, but still you presented the scenario as if it were your base case... and maybe if your not willing to stand behind it, then it is not your base case.
I know that we are not guaranteed to go up or even to touch $1million in less than 7 years, yet the fact of the matter is that none of us hardly know, and we hardly have any clue in terms of the possibility that we could hit $1million in this cycle.. and even if we don't it could happen early in the next cycle... or even if we presume that this cycle ONLY has the rest of this calendar year (at most - as you seemed to also suggest, perhaps in another of your bearish posts), if we add a whole other cycle onto that (to the extent that cycles still exist, which both of us seem to be presuming that cycles still exist), then we have 5 years to finish the remaining of this cycle and then a whole new cycle to be able to touch upon $1 million and perhaps to start to spend some time in the 7 digits, which is still 2 years shorter than your 7 year timeline in which you think that we will be spending in 6 digits.
At this time, I am starting to question the supposed reasonableness of your reason. .. not that your reasoning wasn't in jeopardy at earlier points in time from the point of view of this here cat.
I am not sure what is there to bet on? My opinion did not say that we won't reach 1mil before 2518 days. Besides, it was (and is) an approximation.
The number of days comes from the math in OP (prior poster) table.
If you want to bet on something: I will bet you that bitcoin would be less than $100K/btc at some point between now and the next 1826 days (365x4+366 for 2028).
I can bet $100 (in btc), but would like a $250 commitment from you (1:2.5 ratio) since you keep calling me "bearish" (which is an absolute and irritating bs, of course).
This,
The bet would close on July 14 2030 or before if one of the bettors concede or if the price reaches below $100K.
You say what?
Original archived Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Scraped on 13/07/2025, 22:47:22 UTC
[edited out]
Hardly 'depressing' as 2518 days is about 6.89 years.In order to get to 1mil from here in 2518 days you need 38%/year appreciation.
Saylor predicts 30% yearly appreciation during the next 20 years, so the first 7 years (6.89 to be exact) very well may be at 38% per year average.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/strategys-michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-will-grow-30-year-next-20-years-could-he-be-right
On July 12 2020 bitcoin was $9589, so since then it appreciated 12.25X with an average of 65% per annum (approximately).
On July 12, 2015, bitcoin was $284.65, so since then it appreciated 413.21X with an average of 83% per annum (approximately).
As you can see, there was a smaller per annum appreciation in the last 5 years vs the prior 5 (specifically, appreciation between July 12 2015 and July 12, 2020 was 102% per annum).
Therefore, 38% per annum in the next 7 years or about strikes me as quite reasonable.
Like I said, we could go up into the 7 digits and then come back into the 6 digits, so it could take a while to determine if the bet is won.. o
Or maybe I could bet you that in the next 6.89 years or maybe even in the next 7 years, bitcoin will have had spent less than 2,518 days in 6 digits (which is presuming that it would spend a decent number of those other days, perhaps more than a few hundred in 7 digits). So then the bet would be resolved 7 years from now. I am not sure what the oracle for resolving the bet would be, if there is a reliable website or way to track.
Some other time, perhaps.
You gave a more bearish and a less bearish scenario, and I want with your less bearish scenario to suggest a bet, and sure maybe every proposition that a guy makes does not have to be bettable, but still you presented the scenario as if it were your base case... and maybe if your not willing to stand behind it, then it is not your base case.
I know that we are not guaranteed to go up or even to touch $1million in less than 7 years, yet the fact of the matter is that none of us hardly know, and we hardly have any clue in terms of the possibility that we could hit $1million in this cycle.. and even if we don't it could happen early in the next cycle... or even if we presume that this cycle ONLY has the rest of this calendar year (at most - as you seemed to also suggest, perhaps in another of your bearish posts), if we add a whole other cycle onto that (to the extent that cycles still exist, which both of us seem to be presuming that cycles still exist), then we have 5 years to finish the remaining of this cycle and then a whole new cycle to be able to touch upon $1 million and perhaps to start to spend some time in the 7 digits, which is still 2 years shorter than your 7 year timeline in which you think that we will be spending in 6 digits.
At this time, I am starting to question the supposed reasonableness of your reason. .. not that your reasoning wasn't in jeopardy at earlier points in time from the point of view of this here cat.
I am not sure what is there to bet on? My opinion did not say that we won't reach 1mil before 2518 days. Besides, it was (and is) an approximation
The number of days comes from the math in OP (prior poster) table.
If you want to bet on something: I will bet you that bitcoin would be less than $100K/btc at some point between now and the next 1826 days (365x4+366 for 2028).
I can bet $100 (in btc), but would like a $250 commitment from you (1:2.5 ratio) since you keep calling me "bearish" (which is an absolute and irritating bs, of course).
This , i assume would make you the 'bullish one".
The bet would close on July 14 2030 or before if one of the bettors concede.
You say what?