A valid change would be based upon inflation rates (debasement of the dollar rates) that were beyond expectations, so 2020 seemed to have had shown us that we cannot count on our previous 2% to 3% inflation rates, to the extent that was true in the first place.

I have tentatively come to conclude that whatever amount of wealth we believe that we need, then if we have a withdrawal rate that is based on that amount of wealth, then the income that is produced would need to be adjusted upward approximately 7% per year in order to continue to mostly reflect the initial withdrawal rate.

I understand another dilemma comes from guys when they are potentially earning good money through their regular job, so if they are actually going to pull the fuck you lever, they have to be sure that they are going to be able to mostly replace whatever lost income they experience from pulling the fuck you lever.


That is a good point.  I also thought that the train takes us to the rocket, so that can become a bit confusing too.

Chopper is not taking off every $10k increase, it is merely appearing to help to show us where we are at as compared to where we had been previously, since there will likely be some quant information contained therein, too.


I understand that your question is somewhat rhetorical.

Yet I am still going to attmept to answer by saying that we are somewhere in progress - like a never ending top for those of us who have coins it feels good, but for the no coiners (and sometimes low coiners), they ongoingly consider that the cornz is going to crash at any moment..

The no coiners (and maybe even low coiners) get lulled into thinking that potentially, they are going to be able to buy into bitcoin in later time line and at some price point when the prices are "more reasonable," and really "more reasonable" never ends up coming.

The best (and perhaps only?) way to prepare for UP is to actually buy some coin no matter the price and then go from there.. at least once a normie newbie (or a no coiner) buys some coin and converts into a low coiner, then at least he has gotten started..... even though an ongoing tendency and an ongoing problem for no coiners (and even some low coiners, too?) remains their hesitancy to get started and then to also just keep on buying for perhaps 4-10 years or longer, depending on their budget and their ability to frontload their investment into bitcoin.


I stated the bet terms, which was largely to proclaim that we would not spend 2518 days or even the next 6.89 years in 6 digits... and I was even going to allow for a whole 7 years, even though the problem might come from counting the days that we actually end up in 6 digits when it comes to 7 years from now.


I am not just spewing out bets because I am inching to bet.  I believe that I have already stated that I would be willing to bet that sub $75k would never be reached again, but so far, I had not been willing to go higher than that, especially since I have an outstanding proclamation (and even offered it as a bet since about March 2024) that the BTC price would not go below 25% above the 200-WMA until after the end of 2025, and right now the 200-WMA is right around $50k, so that is really only $62.5k right now, but probably only in the last couple of weeks, I was willing to say (and even bet) that bitcoin will never go below $75k as a supplemental proposition.

In other words, we are still pretty far from me saying that sub $100k will never be reached again, and I even believe in the discussion of my bet with WatChe, I said that I probably would ONLY start to consider that sub $100k is no longer in the cards once the BTC price gets above $333k.. but at the same time, if the BTC price were to get to $333k too fast, I might not be willing to proclaim that sub $100k is no longer possible (or at least no longer probable is the reason for betting).


Holy cow!!!!   

You are going into details of a bet that is not even close to anything that I had said.. and I was mostly challenging what you said, not making any real proclamations of my own...at least nothing as controversial as what you stated..

And, yeah, you have these little bear-streaks that come through your posts from time to time, and I have no problem with bear-streaks until they start to seem over the top, which your proclamation of  2518 days or even the next 6.89 years in 6 digits seems to qualify for "over the top."


I suppose if I am calling you a bear as a sort of criticism, then the underlying presumption would be that I am less bearish than you, and sure, by definition more bullish than you.

By the way, I will point out that I am not going to deviate from my tentative ideas that there are probably 50/50 odds that the BTC spot price touches upon the 200-WMA at some point in the coming 2-ish years, and I even have allowance in my own projection of possibilities (and personal preparations) that the BTC price could end up going 35% below the 200-WMA... yet at the same time, the 200-WMA is constantly moving, yet we still have to have bullish as fuck BTC prices to get the 200-WMA to move up to $100k in the next year.  The 200-WMA would have to start to move up more than $137 per day, and currently it is ONLY moving up right around $50 per day.. so it is not impossible to get the 200-WMA to $100k or higher, and surely when the 200-WMA starts to get closer to $100k, I might be starting to willing to proclaim that the BTC price will never again go below $100k... We have to see how matters play out in the coming 6-9 months, and surely there are several of you (bears) who are proclaiming that the bull market is going to be over by October/November.. which does seem a bit presumptuous, even though surely it would be within parameters of previous bitcoin cycle patterns, even though I will again proclaim that cycle patters are great and wonderful presumptions, but bitcoin could still break out from the cycle patterns and even have a bit of a prolonged price run that might go into 1st or 2nd quarter of 2026.. and at the same time, sure, I recognize/appreciate myself as a wee bit of a broken record on this topic since I was making similar proclamations in 2021 and even in 2017 and none of those kinds of longer cycles came to pass in any material and/or meaningful way.


I say that you are trying to change the topic away from your earlier assertion about how many days you expect the BTC price to stay in 6 digits..