Even if you (Lembo69) are referring to longer timelines (such as 4 years or more), you still seem to be referring to bitcoin as a kind of long term trade, and maybe in order to really think about bitcoin as an investment, you need to consider 10 years or longer?
I do frequently suggest that bitcoin can be an investment for 4-10 years or longer, yet those folks who are investing less than 10 years, such as somewhere between 4 and 10 years may well have health or age reasons that cause them to need to curtail their investment, yet it is difficult to consider some other excuse why a person might plan to invest into bitcoin for less than 10 years unless maybe he might be planning to trade it.. since it seems that if a person is recognizing bitcoin as a long term investment, then he would want to keep it forever, and surely once he gets to a status of having enough or more than enough, then at that point he might start to spend from it, but if we are just thinking about getting in and out of bitcoin, then to me, that sounds like a trade rather than an investment.
I will grant that sometimes a person may well be in an investment, and the strength of the investment thesis goes away or weakens, and in those kinds of circumstances, there may well be needs to get out of the investment or drastically reduce the investment based on the weakening of the investment thesis.
This is true. As an active bitcoin investor who possibly has a stable source of income that generates your discretionary income regularly, I don't think it's wise to sell off your bitcoin stash wholly or in part while still in service. Bitcoin is an investment and investments
(Real estate, Tree plantations, business ventures, etc) are aimed at self sustenance after retirement. This implies that for a person who started investing in bitcoin at 20 years before retirement, his initial HODLing target should be at least 20years (In the absence of any unforeseen circumstances that could not be handled by emergency funds and back up funds which could be life threatening). This allows the person make his retirement plan which also generates more income.
Sure. If you have identified bitcoin as a place to grow your investment, it does not necessarily mean that there is any need to get into "Real estate, Tree plantations, business ventures," as a retirement way to generate income, since bitcoin has been and likely will continue to be a better place to hold money for generating income, too.
Time-based sustainable withdraw assumes that bitcoin is going to continue to go up in value, and it seems likely that it will continue to go up in value more than any potentially competitive asset class areas.
Sure, you might want to buy real estate to live in, and maybe you like to own certain kinds of businesses based on your own personal interests, yet I doubt that you need to engage in that kind of investment in order to give yourself an income (especially if we are working with the presumption that you had already accumulated your bitcoin through whatever income you had over the prior 4-10 years or more, and yeah sometimes even 20 years or more. In other words, bitcoin is likely going to continue to be superior in terms of its returns as compared with other places that you can put your value, so you likely are able to live exclusively off of your bitcoin, even though you could have various other streams of income that might not necessarily be correlated to bitcoin, and you likely would also spend your various inferior assets prior to spending your bitcoin, even though I hate to proclaim a strict blanket rule since each guy has to figure out his various balances of investments and also the extent that he might continue to work even after reaching overaccumulation status..
Considering the current bitcoin price action which is less than 20 years old, price has risen from $0.09 in 2009 to $121k in 2025, 16 years later. Imagine if a person who is to retire in 2030 had joined the bitcoin accumulation in 2010, no real estate could possibly guarantee such profit at his retirement.
Let's try to use more realistic examples, since I hardly see much use in fantasizing about guys back in 2010 since we cannot turn back the clock, even though surely there are guys on this forum with various length of histories in bitcoin and various levels of aggressiveness in accumulating their bitcoin, and at the same time, surely we likely realize that in early times, it took less capital to reach overaccumulation status, even though the ways of measuring overaccumulation status might have had varied through the years, since the longer bitcoin exists, we might gain some ways in which we are attempting to measure the extent to which we have enough or more than enough or perhaps how ling we might need to spend accumuating bitcoin in order to reach a status of having enough or more than enough.
So first of all, I think every investor should kill the traders spirit which gets you to follow the chart always and also keeps you waiting for dips to invest.
I agree that if we are in our accumulation phase of our bitcoin investment, we likely need to focus on various ongoing buying ways to get bitcoin, and selling bitcoin in order to accumulate more seems like a gambling approach to bitcoin and filled with too many uncertainties, since if our goal involves accumulating more bitcoin we need to attempt to stay focused on ongoing buying of bitcoin in various ways, and sure at some point it might start to seem that we don't necessarily need to continue to buy bitcoin, even though at some point we will likely will need to calculate the extent to which we need to buy more bitcoin or perhaps transition into either a holding phase or maybe at some point we just buy on dips, since we mostly are getting close to having enough or more than enough bitcoin, and of course, I consider the goal to be entering into sustainable withdrawal and/or having bitcoin as a lifetime investment rather than either selling out of it or overly depleting it, unless a person might be close to death or have some age and/or health considerations that motivates needs to sell larger portions of bitcoin rather than more incrementalist ways of price-based and/or time-based sustainable withdrawals (selling of small amounts based on established parameters).
Your financial security is very important and that is why you need to be intentional about how your future would be having accumulated enough bitcoin during your active days. Investing with your Discretionary income by DCA would give you an edge over premature sales.
Buying bitcoin within our discretionary income, and practicing good cashflow management are surely ways to build up our bitcoin holdings, and we also would likely need to make sure that we are holding a decent proportion of our bitcoin in self-custody.. perhaps 80% or more of it.
@Jayjuangee has for long advised at least 4-10 years HODLing period during which bitcoin would have passed through at least 1 to 2 or more bitcoin cycles and have possibly met a likelihood of sustained ATH which gives higher chances of making a maximum gain; he has not also limited HODLing to 4 to 10 years but beyond even though everyone has the right to do whatever pleases him with his funds.
You are still framing this in a weird way, since it seems that each time a person buys any bitcoin, he should be considering that bitcoin to be 4-10 years or more in his possession before selling it, except maybe some spend and replace situations.
How much time a guy sets as his investment timeline surely relates to personal circumstances including perhaps whether the guy might have age/health issues that might cause him to have an investment timeline that is less than 10 years, but then also the extent to which a guy is able to be aggressive in his BTC accumulation is going to likely affect his investment timeline as well as how much of his income is discretionary income, since a person who has higher discretionary income is going to be in a position to potentially reach overaccumulation status faster than someone who is barely able to figure out the extent to which he has any discretionary income and some guys are in a place where they are not really able to increase their discretionary income which may cause their timeline for investing to be longer, yet surely sometimes younger folks will have abilities to potentially increase their cashflow and their discretionary income with the passage of time..
so there can be quite a few variables including some guys who are better at managing their cashflows so that they are not putting their bitcoin holdings in overly risky circumstances, so in that regard, some guys might screw up in their determination of being aggressive and to cross over into being overly aggressive without necessarily realizing it and/or if they end up losing, then maybe if they realize their mistake before it causes considerable amounts of damage to their situation... in other words some kinds of mistakes are not greatly damaging, and other kinds of mistakes could set a person many years back or even cause it so that he can never reach fuck you status, if his aim might have had been to reach fuck you status (which just means a status in which a person can quit their job and be able to live off of their bitcoin).
[edited out]
Emergency fund it is very important to our daily life activities and when it is also related to Bitcoin investments, emergency fund play an important role in Bitcoin investments that serva as a backup incase of unforeseen circumstances, so every investors needs to plan when and how to back up his/her investments, my attention goes to the highlight capital sentence above that investors should create his/her emergency fund alongside your investments, such a statement is not wrong but for the purpose of being capable of
identifying or sperating the one that is your investments and emergency fund, i will advise that you should give a month difference or more after you have invested for proper clearfication of the investment and emergency fund.A lot of guys get sloppy, and they don't have any emergency fund, so then their bitcoin (their investment) ends up serving as their emergency fund. So then that bad practice likely becomes a matter of being too greedy, when frequently it is better to hold back a certain amount of cash and to keep that cash on hand to cover various situation that might come up and certain situations that might last quite a long time, so many times there is a recommendation to have at least three months of emergency funds, but if a guy is in his early stages of building up his bitcoin investment, he might build his emergency fund at the same time as building his bitcoin investment, and yeah sure during that period of time that both are being built simultaneously, it is true that the guy might suffer some emergency in which his emergency fund is not enough, so there remains a balancing of determinations to build up his emergency fund and bitcoin investment simultaneously (which I think is the better way forward) or to build up his emergency fund prior to investing into bitcoin (which I believe is an inferior approach and even maybe showing that the guy does not understand the importance of getting started investing into bitcoin).
There are guys who might have less than 10% of their income that they are able to split into investing into bitcoin and also building their emergency fund, and if you think about it if they are investing only 5% into bitcoin and 5% into their emergency fund, it could well take around 5 years for them to build their emergency fund and their bitcoin to point that they have invested 3 months of their income (which is 25% of their annual income) into each... so those lower levels of investment take a long time to build up investment portfolios, and even in that particular example once the emergency fund is 3 months of expenses, then at that point then more emphasis could be given to just investing into bitcoin, even though some folks want to build reserve funds too.. so reserve funds have more flexibility to be used for other things and I imagine if a guy is taking 5 years to build up 3 months of expenses of an emergency fund, he may also be tapping into that emergency fund from time to time, which will cause him to have to replenish any amounts that he had tapped into and depleted the emergency funds.
There are likely even guys here who have been stacking bitcoin for several years, and who might feel that their progress is slow, yet part of the challenge is to keep stacking even during times that the BTC price is going up... and each person has to figure out how to deal with how to keep stacking and dilemmas regarding the extent to which they might hold some cash in reserves for buying on dips... dips that may or may not end up happening.
you have said right, however I agree with you more that even though one has some funds kept to buy the dips there is no guarantee that the dips will even happen, so what's best is to keep stacking up whilst hope the dips happens some day which one could grab the opportunity to buy more, having the benefit of buying in discount. Its also good to plan to buy the dips, buy lump sum but best buying gradually and consistently which is more likely to be referred to as DCA.
Investors are expecting to buy Bitcoin at dips but I think it is currently going through a period of relative dips. Most investors are sceptical about whether the dips that some investors are expecting will ever come to the market in the future. This is because the time is now more bullish and small investors are holding tight and new investors who are accumulation through discretionary income are holding to their own methods (DCA) regardless of the price. There may be some scepticism from a lump sum buying during a price rise but it should not be, if your excess floating cash is likely to be spent in different sectors, then buying Bitcoin will be an excellent decision.
In the long-term plan, buying at any time of the market is a good decision, especially continuous DCA. But I have doubts about how suitable this bullish period is for a one-time purchase. I think that the best step would be to maintain the continuity of investing in the green market and prepare the floating fund strongly as a preparation for a one-time purchase. Because, I think the market of the dip is better as a one-time purchase. The main reason for this is to buy more Bitcoin at a low price and deposit more Bitcoin in the investment fund and take a step forward towards achieving the goal. Even buying at a low price will have the possibility of increasing your profit. It may be the right decision to make a one-time purchase in the green market rather than necessarily spending floating funds.
I don't see any reason to be overly focused on profits, especially during the first few years of bitcoin accumulation.
You're right, when you said about few years some investors can only hold for like 2 to 3 years and start focusing on selling thier bitcoin investment when they are supposed to maintain the ongoing buying of bitcoin for like 5-10 years before they will start attempting to sell thier holdings, the truth is a lot of people is very curious to taste profit which is why they always end up selling their holdings in the middle of thier accumulating journey.
Sure there is no problem to pay some attention to profits, but many newbie bitcoiners within their first cycle or maybe even longer are likely going to be just buying bitcoin on an ongoing basis and sure if they are able to catch some dips then fine, but there budget would likely mostly be focused on ongoing buying so that they stay focused on accumulating bitcoin rather than being concerned about how much they are in profits or not in profits.
Being concerned about how much they are in profits or not in profits is the reason why alot of people keep making unnecessary imaginations and dreaming of having 1
BTC in thier portfolio but in reality they don't even have a single stash of bitcoin in thier portfolio. That is because they're just looking for a possible means that would lead them into owning 1
BTC so that they can be swimming on top profit, without knowing that thier consistency will determine if they will achieve the dream of owning 1
BTC or not, Because when you stay focused in accumulating bitcoin your dreams can come through.
Frequently, a person will have difficulties seeing progress in their investment, even in the first 4 years of investing, unless they were able to front load the investment and even then, any investment, including bitcoin tends to take a while to play out in order fot the value to start to compound upon itself, and surely it helps the more that a person can keep putting in, and surely even now a guy who starts accumulating $200 worthof bitcoin every week may well have difficulties even accumulating 0.5 BTC in the next 10 years.. since $200 per week for 10 years results in $10,400 invested per year and $104k invested over 10 years, which might not even result in half of a bitcoin, so we have to figure out our own level of aggressiveness and reasonableness in terms of our various targets which may well be to invest and accumulate as much as we can and to perhaps tweak what we are doing from time to time,
and surely after a cycle or two we might start to feel that we are making progress, yet we still might have to continue to accumulate if we might be hoping to get to fuck you status.. and even getting to fuck you status is not guaranteed, even if we do everything perfectly, so we have to figure out ways to balance what we are doing so that we are financially and psychologically prepared for a variety of outcomes, even if at the same time we may well recognize bitcoin to be amongst the best of investments, if not the best place to put value that is open to anyone and everyone who has a discretionary income.