Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 15, 2025, 07:23:01 PM

Quote from: Tungbulu on July 15, 2025, 07:57:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 14, 2025, 11:20:18 PM

Quote from: Tonimez on July 14, 2025, 12:40:05 PM

So first of all, I think every investor should kill the traders spirit which gets you to follow the chart always and also keeps you waiting for dips to invest.

I agree that if we are in our accumulation phase of our bitcoin investment, we likely need to focus on various ongoing buying ways to get bitcoin, and selling bitcoin in order to accumulate more seems like a gambling approach to bitcoin and filled with too many uncertainties, since if our goal involves accumulating more bitcoin we need to attempt to stay focused on ongoing buying of bitcoin in various ways, and sure at some point it might start to seem that we don't necessarily need to continue to buy bitcoin, even though at some point we will likely will need to calculate the extent to which we need to buy more bitcoin or perhaps transition into either a holding phase or maybe at some point we just buy on dips, since we mostly are getting close to having enough or more than enough bitcoin, and of course, I consider the goal to be entering into sustainable withdrawal and/or having bitcoin as a lifetime investment rather than either selling out of it or overly depleting it, unless a person might be close to death or have some age and/or health considerations that motivates needs to sell larger portions of bitcoin rather than more incrementalist ways of price-based and/or time-based sustainable withdrawals (selling of small amounts based on established parameters).

That's right. During the accumulation stage, selling is a totally bad option, even if the investor's intention is to buy later when the price is much lower in order to maximise profit, this is a trader's mindset and a totally bad idea considering the volatile nature of the market. It's impossible to predict what the market's next move would be and you could end up missing out on more potential gains while waiting for a dip that may likely not come, that's not a reliable strategy at all and anyone doing this could end up in losses, especially when the person is still in his accumulation stage.

Well yes. The loss of selling bitcoin at various points when a guy is still supposed to be trying to accumulate bitcoin comes from both taking the chances that the BTC prices goes down, but also potentially losing opportunities to continue to ongoingly build up his bitcoin holdings in a sure way (even if the value of his coins are ongoingly fluctuating), which is continued buying… and surely, a person could get lucky with some attempts to trade his bitcoin, yet it is likely not going to make as much difference to his whole stacking experience in terms of actually building his bitcoin rather than taking chances with it as just staying focused on ongoing, consistent, regular, persistent and perhaps even aggressive buying of bitcoin, which suredly contributes to the bitcoin stash growing and growing and growing with the passage of time, even if the value of it might also fluctuate considerably… so that 4-10 years or beyond down the road, the bitcoin accumulator can look at his bitcoin stash and even his bitcoin stacking history and ongoingly show that his bitcoin stash had been growing larger and larger and larger through the years and at all stages, and surely some coins will have higher costs than others, but still overall, he may well find that large portions of his bitcoin stash are in considerable profits.

There also might not be any major, material or significant difference between some of the coins that he bought at various price points through the years of his accumulation, since throughout his ongoing stacking of bitcoin through the years, he would have not really had much confidence about if the BTC price was going to go up, down or sideways especially while he was in the midst of stacking bitcoin, even though afterwards he can look back and see what happened, and it seems more clear, even though while he was stacking he did not really know if the BTC price would go up, down or sideways,

and in the end perhaps all of his coins that are older are likely well in profits by at these later points of 4-10 years or more down the road, and even the way that he starts to consider his bitcoin holdings has to do with how many bitcoin that he has in total rather than getting distracted into the specifics regarding which coins happen to be more profitable and which coins happen to be less profitable. By the time, he is trying to figure out what to do, he largely just has to consider how many coins that he has and if he had been ongoingly building his stash, then he likely ended up putting himself in a better place as compared with alternative ways that would have had been gambling the extent to which he might have had been able to accumulate more bitcoin or not..

For example, if a guy with a $30k per year income had spent 9 years accumulating bitcoin at about a rate of $100 per week, which would have been somewhere in the ballpark of 17% of his annual income, and after 9 years, he had invested right around $47k into bitcoin, and he had accumulated right around 12 BTC, right now, he may well be feeling quite good about his ongoing somewhat consistent investment into bitcoin, since right now he can measure that 12 BTC has a current spot price value of about $1.4 million and more importantly a 200-WMA value of nearly $600k, and so from the 200-WMA value of the stash, he considers that he may well be able to currently withdraw around $60k per year in a sustainable way, which is a doubling of his current, and he would not have to work beyond perhaps merely carrying out accounting duties, and if he were to be worried about withdrawing at a 10% withdrawal rate, he could choose a lower rate and still be able to generate persistent and sustainable income from his bitcoin that is way higher than his current income levels... so he has options, and he should be able to figure out some kind of a meaningful way to benefit from his options whether he thinks he has enough bitcoin or if he thinks that he needs to continue to accumulate bitcoin.

Quote from: Tungbulu on July 15, 2025, 07:57:57 AM

It makes a lot more sense to focus on consistent buying/accumulation, especially if the investor's goal is to build a long term and solid Bitcoin stash. As you advance and get closer to your goal, it wouldn't be bad to reassess and if necessary, make a few adjustments to suit your current financial situation. Buying on DIPs can be a great way to add more sats to one's stash, and I think it's also pretty awesome that you're thinking a out sustainable withdrawal strategies.

Surely not everyone wants to get to sustainable withdrawal strategy status and to be able to have a passive income, whether that income can completely support them or if it would be an income to merely supplement their other income sources.

Quote from: Tungbulu on July 15, 2025, 07:57:57 AM

Having Bitcoin as a lifetime investment is such an amazing idea and you're absolutely right to consider factors like age and health when considering which withdrawal strategies to use. Incremental withdrawals based on established parameters I believe can be quite an effective approach, and it's always a good idea to plan ahead of every situation before taking decisions.

In the beginning of our bitcoin investment, we might be a little lost in terms of what we might be wanting to achieve, since it can be quite unclear how adding bitcoin to our investment portfolio (whether we have any other investments or not), will end up helping us to reach various goals that we might have, so surely each of us likely has to make various assessments along the way to try to figure out where we are at and where we might want to go, which likely includes attempting to assess our 9 individual factors and also monitoring the various 3ays that our 9 individual factors might need to be reassessed as our bitcoin stash presumptively get larger and perhaps as our cashflow management practices also get stronger.

Quote from: Tungbulu on July 15, 2025, 07:57:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 14, 2025, 11:20:18 PM

Frequently, a person will have difficulties seeing progress in their investment, even in the first 4 years of investing, unless they were able to front load the investment and even then, any investment, including bitcoin tends to take a while to play out in order fot the value to start to compound upon itself, and surely it helps the more that a person can keep putting in, and surely even now a guy who starts accumulating $200 worthof bitcoin every week may well have difficulties even accumulating 0.5 BTC in the next 10 years.. since $200 per week for 10 years results in $10,400 invested per year and $104k invested over 10 years, which might not even result in half of a bitcoin, so we have to figure out our own level of aggressiveness and reasonableness in terms of our various targets which may well be to invest and accumulate as much as we can and to perhaps tweak what we are doing from time to time,

and surely after a cycle or two we might start to feel that we are making progress, yet we still might have to continue to accumulate if we might be hoping to get to fuck you status.. and even getting to fuck you status is not guaranteed, even if we do everything perfectly, so we have to figure out ways to balance what we are doing so that we are financially and psychologically prepared for a variety of outcomes, even if at the same time we may well recognize bitcoin to be amongst the best of investments, if not the best place to put value that is open to anyone and everyone who has a discretionary income.

Your points about the challenges of seeing progress in investments I believe is spot on, especially in the early years. And front loading can in fact be the perfect boost and help in this case, but regardless, one should not expect an instant result because the value would normally take some time to compound. How fast an investment grows depends on the investor's consistency and resilience because the more one invests, the better.

Your example about accumulation $200 worth of Bitcoin every week is a perfect example to illustrate the challenges of reaching a particular milestone. It's also very important to set realistic expectations and be flexible enough to make adjustments in your strategy when/if necessary. Even with a solid plan, it's still very much possible that an investor may not reach 'fuck you status' but if you really get to think about it, you'll see that it's all part of the journey. Bitcoin is a very unique asset and an amazing investment opportunity which is why investors should be financially and psychologically prepared and ready for every possible outcomes.

Guys might attempt to invest into bitcoin as aggressively as they are able to invest within their financial parameters, and some guys might ONLY be able to invest 5% of their income into bitcoin and others might be able to invest 25% of their income into bitcoin, so surely the more that they are able to invest, then the more likely that they will be able to sooner enjoy the compounding effects of the value in their investment, and surely compounding effects also have a time factor, and surely sometimes bitcoin will go shooting up in a short period of time, but it also has periods of going down for extended periods of time, and so it can be challenging to really figure out how to apportion our investment whether we try to front load or maybe if we think that the price might be going down we don't do as much frontloading until we are more comfortable with bitcoin's price situation, and surely some guys might end up slowing down on their DCAing into bitcoin, which might not be a correct move.

Even if we look at bitcoin's history in the past 2.5-ish years since November 2022. We can see that BTC price has largely been going up during that whole time, so frontloading and aggressiveness from the beginning would have had paid off quite well, yet it can still be difficult to know when we are in the midst of it.

Yet the newbie bitcoin accumulators are always faced with a similar dilemma in regards to their hardly having any BTC when they are first starting, so part of their ongoing strategy might also depend on how they start and if they are able to front load into the investment. Some guys are not able to front load into their bitcoin investment and the best that they can do is merely to regularly invest into bitcoin from their regular income and perhaps attempt to determine that it might be a good idea to hold some value on the side for buying dips that may or may not end up happening.

I have ideas about what I would do in regards to my ongoing bitcoin accumulation, yet guys still have to come to those conclusions for themselves and sometimes there can be plans that have differing emphasis and that are going to lead to different results, yet there is not necessarily any compelling case that one plan is more appropriate than another, without actually knowing all of the guys various personal factors in which he needs to account those factors (and the balances) for himself..

Quote from: Tungbulu on July 15, 2025, 07:57:57 AM

Acknowledging the potentials of Bitcoin while also recognising uncertainties is the right way to approach Bitcoin investment. It's also very crucial for investors to find a balance between investing in Bitcoin and also being prepared for different scenarios, it's mostly about about acknowledging your unique financial situation and making informed decisions that aligns with your financial situation and also staying committed to your long term goals

I agree that there may well not be any perfect way forward and the guy has options, and the extent to which he might invest aggressively or whimpy or the extent to which he might hold money for buying the dip or the extent to which he might want to build up emergency funds and/or reserve funds has quite a bit of flexibility in which no answer is completely correct outside of the guy weighing the various balances, and surely there are some balances that will work out better for his own situation, which probably should include accumulating and building a bitcoin holdings, yet even guys who agree about that might not come to the same conclusions in regards to how whimpy or how aggressive they should be.

Quote from: Tonimez on July 15, 2025, 09:50:12 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 14, 2025, 11:20:18 PM

Buying bitcoin within our discretionary income, and practicing good cashflow management are surely ways to build up our bitcoin holdings, and we also would likely need to make sure that we are holding a decent proportion of our bitcoin in self-custody.. perhaps 80% or more of it.

This is very correct and knowledgeable. Cashflow management is key. A person may think that his cashflow management is right until the entire system is tested. Cashflow management can be tested by natural exigencies and disasters, sickness and daring health conditions.

Extreme movements in the bitcoin price can also end up testing your cashflow management systems, especially extended period of bitcoin price moving negatively and even staying in the negative for a long time, including your bitcoin portfolio potentially being negative for long periods of time.

Quote from: Silikiem on July 15, 2025, 10:57:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 14, 2025, 11:20:18 PM

[edited out]

Perhaps some of those folks who falls to this category can be able to fix things up with this strategy and stop being greedy in their investment decisions, and gradually build up their portfolio no matter how little, what matters most is being consistent with their accumulation and HODL for the long term goal.

It is true that sometimes it is better to invest into bitcoin a little bit less aggressively rather than making the mistake of not having enough money to cover your various expenses, and surely sometimes there are surprise expenses that might have had been difficult to detect in advance, yet if we are failing/refusing to make adequate preparations, we likely end up contributing to our own emergencies, since we likely need to have some cushion in our budget, especially if we are trying to be more aggressive in our bitcoin investing, we are likely ONLY in a solid place to be aggressive with our bitcoin in terms of our having already created some budget cushion that not only accounts for emergencies but also accounts for mistakes that we might make.. .and to test our own boundaries and even to figure out how far we might be able to push ourselves without over doing it, we likely need to practice and pay attention and even attempt to be honest with ourselves in regards to some of the risks that we might sometimes be taking when we push aggressively, which might well be signs that we are actually overdoing it, even if the situation does not end up imploding upon us.

"Time" is very important for the effect of compounding. The price of Bitcoin can suddenly fall and then rise. By investing systematically, knowing the position of the financial market with certainty, you will have the ability to deal with market risks, even if it becomes difficult and challenging at times. When investing, it is important to consider personal financial situation, trends and long-term investment, but these are not evidence and evidence, and informed decisions are the foundation of a stable investment strategy.