Quote from: Popkon6 on July 16, 2025, 08:36:01 AM

Bitcoin DCA method is absolutely the best method to invest in Bitcoin, those who have followed this method from the beginning till today have not failed in their Bitcoin investment. Because Bitcoin price is saved on the purchase price in Bitcoin from both upward and downward directions.

DCA protects you because you are not able to know the BTC price in the future. For sure, if you know that the BTC price is going down, then it is better to wait and buy the dip, yet the overwhelming majority of the time, you don't know that the BTC price is going down, even when it seems that all signs are that the BTC price might go down, it ends up going up.

DCA does not protect you from down.. even though perhaps if you are buying all of the time (such as every week), there will be times when the BTC price is up and other times in which the BTC price is down, but you cannot really know in advance, so then your BTC price ends up being largely an average of the whole time that you had been buying, and if you are trying to time the downs, then you may or may not have success to have a lower price per BTC... yet it seems that even if each of us would like a lower price per BTC, there is almost no way that we we can accomplish the keeping of our average cost per BTC low if we are also wanting to keep buying bitcoin and growing our bitcoin stash... which in some sense it seems that it should be a higher goal to grow our BTC stash.

I have given quite a few realistic examples in the past to show that one guy had spent half or even 1/3 or even a fraction as much as another guy (and he even had a lower cost per BTC), yet the guy who had spent more money may have had 20% or 30% more BTC, but had double or even triple the cost, yet since bitcoin has historically performed so well, it would have had been way better to be the guy who had accumulated more bitcoin as compared to the guy who had a lower cost per BTC.

Do we need to go through such examples again? I am not opposed to going through such examples, especially if it will help guys to attempt to understand the various dynamics, yet it seems once of the better ways for guys to understand the dynamics is to figure out their own examples and even if they are living through their experiences.. . Guys who are trying to accumulate bitcoin every single week likely know that every single week they have to decide if to invest all of their available BTC purchasing money in DCAing into bitcoin or if they are going to hold some back for either buying on the dip or for some passage of time, and there are trade-offs since guys are never going to know whether the BTC price is going to go down or not..and many times, especially during a bull market is that the BTC price is going to go up, but even the presumption could be wrong.. which the same is true during a bear market, there maybe be a presumption that the BTC price is going to go down, yet the presumption could end up being wrong... So each guy has to decide each week, an there is a question regarding the extent to which it is valuable to hold back backing or to defer buying based on conjecture that there could be a dip that might not end up happening.

Quote from: Tamaperdana on July 16, 2025, 01:58:27 PM

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on July 16, 2025, 05:02:26 AM

Quote from: boyptc on July 15, 2025, 11:15:10 PM

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on July 15, 2025, 09:07:00 PM

That is actually how I see it too. You don’t need to wait till you have a huge amount or try to time the market perfectly. Just staying active and investing what you can afford goes a long way. It keeps you involved without pressure, and over time, that consistency makes a big difference.

Exactly!
This is the reason why there's the DCA strategy.
And people who think that they need more before they invest in Bitcoin, they're wrong with that. What they need to do is to start as soon as possible with any amount that they already have.

No need to set that limits and conditions to ourselves just to be invested. It's true that there's less pressure if we just do it in our own terms when we're able to buy any moment we wish to.
You've also said the key word in there, consistency. Being consistent in DCA will make you knock out those good spot and leverage traders as they proclaim.

‎Exactly, that is the whole point of DCA. Waiting for the perfect time or trying to gather a large amount before getting started only leads to missed opportunities. The market doesn’t wait, and neither should anyone serious about building their position.
‎
‎There is no need to overcomplicate it with selfimposed limits. The best move is simply to begin with whatever is available and stay consistent. That kind of steady approach not only reduces pressure but also builds real discipline over time.
‎And yes, consistency is everything. In the long run, that quiet, persistent DCA strategy often outperforms the flashy moves of spot or leverage traders. It is not about timing the market it is about time in the market.........

Investing in bitcoin using the DCA strategy is indeed an excellent buying strategy for all investors. However, we must remember that here we only discuss the benefits of DCA, but unfortunately, we rarely discuss the challenges faced when DCAing bitcoin. My experience shows that investing in bitcoin using the DCA strategy also has its challenges. One of them is that we really need to be smart about managing our finances and become even better. Personally, before DCAing bitcoin, my financial management was very poor. So when I started DCAing, everything went smoothly for the first and second weeks. But after the third week, I began to realize that DCAing once a week wasn't working for me. So, after that, I started to change my DCA strategy to accumulate about every two weeks. But after that, I started to feel like it wasn't working for me anymore. Then, I finally tried DCAing once a month, and the results were still the same it didn't feel right.

That's when I started to wonder what was wrong with me, and after deeper reflection, it turned out my financial management wasn't very good. Sometimes I bought unnecessary items, so I ended up with no discretionary income to invest in Bitcoin. That's when I started to realize it and started improving my financial management. And sure enough, after I improved my financial management, I began to see a bright spot and was finally able to DCA more smoothly, whether it was weekly, biweekly, or monthly. So, with that in mind, for those of you who are currently DCAing Bitcoin, don't forget to manage your finances well so your DCA can run more smoothly.

I doubt that financial management is a downside of DCA, since you need good financial management no matter how you invest. DCA allows you to adjust, and yeah, if you are DCAing too much, then you might be spending beyond your discretionary income, and so you could DCA whimpily and have lesser chances of overdoing it... yet you are still not describing a disadvantage of DCA, but instead a disadvantage the you (and perhaps others) might end up buying BTC with money that they want to use for other things, and so surely the more that any of us chooses to put into BTC, then the more likely that we are going to suffer in other ways in the current times, because that money ends up getting locked up into bitcoin and perhaps might not be available for 4-10 years or longer.. which has some costs, especially for guys who choose to invest in bitcoin aggressively. They end up not having discretionary money to enjoy their life (consume) in the present.. .Their pleasure is deferred, which is not easy and is a problem with any investing, not just DCA.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 16, 2025, 02:06:21 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 14, 2025, 05:38:17 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 14, 2025, 05:18:45 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 12, 2025, 05:20:03 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 12, 2025, 04:46:37 AM

As I check Bitcoin's price and see that it has surged to another ALL TIME HIGH, I feel both happy and SAD.
Why?
Because the more it surges higher and higher from here, the higher possibility that we may never have the opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $100,000 again.
My next major Bitcoin purchase will be below $100,000 IF we are lucky to see it there again.

You should have regrets for waiting rather than buying, yet of course, when to wait and when to buy are personal choices.. and hopefully you were not sitting on too much cash waiting for a dip that did not end up happening.

Haha. Ser, I have ZERO regrets because my major purchase for HODLing was made when Bitcoin was still under $5,000. My post was more of making a point that having another chance of buying Bitcoin below $100,000 is a BIG opportunity, especially for those who haven't actually started their Bitcoin journey.

But again if we're lucky to see another crash below $100,000, everyone should be VERY bullish for the opportunity.

Sure it has all worked out for you, yet when you first registered on the forum in May 2016, bitcoin was right around $420, and it spent much of the remainder of 2016 between $500 and $700.. but instead, you waited to buy bitcoin until it went up to $19,666 in 2017 and then it crashed down to $3,124 in 2018, and then when it was recovering in April/May-ish of 2019, you finally decided to get started...nearly 3 years after you registered on the forum.

Even though I don't know your details, you still seem to be blinded by your own rationalizing that it is better to buy bitcoin at 10x higher prices because you were buying on a dip. And, I went through the numbers previously, so it is not like I need to go through the numbers again, right?

I was learning the HARD WAY when I got into cryptocurrencies. I traded shitcoins during the start and LOST a part of my savings, then I started to save again, and WAITED for a Golden Opportunity. Cool

I may be sort of "late" in my HODL journey, but checking the current price of Bitcoin today, I'm definitely not too late. No regrets ser.

Of course, I am sorry for your losses that may even go beyond your having had waited to buy bitcoin, yet at the same time, I was not really criticizing you for fucking up in the past, but instead criticizing you for proclaiming that waiting and buying on dips is the best way, which you continue to make similar mistakes in that direction and either explicitly or implicitly proclaim that waiting is a good approach to bitcoin and trying to time bottoms is a good way to invest in bitcoin. Sure, you are not tending to go in details regarding your preference, but you still have those ideas underlying many of your substantive posts.. and sure, maybe I am getting to know you too well? and I don't agree with pushing those ideas, since they are likely not generally good, and they probably are not good in your case either, even though sure you are free to make decisions for yourself, as you do continue to do.

Quote from: amihada on July 16, 2025, 02:17:42 PM

Quote from: Finebone on July 16, 2025, 10:42:59 AM

Quote from: kanftka on July 16, 2025, 07:10:14 AM

Also I honestly don’t even see Bitcoin as something risky anymore, not if you come in with the right mindset. It has already proven itself over the years. The main thing now is how smart and disciplined you are with it. It is not really about whether Bitcoin will work, it is now about whether we know how to plan and position ourselves properly.

Don't get carried away buddy, Bitcoin is quite risky, just as every other investment out there, but the risk is very little comparing to most investment, especially when held for a longer duration of time, and it's because of the risk attached to it that is why it is advisable to invest with what you can afford to lose, because we live in a world full of uncertainty, even tomorrow is not promised, so saying that you don't see Bitcoin as something that isn't risky anymore is not proper in my own opinion.

When someone considers Bitcoin to be a risk-free investment, it means that he or she fully understands how to manage and overcome risks. No one can deny that Bitcoin investment has risks that need to be considered, but investors need to manage risks well to minimize losses. So, it is very important to understand Bitcoin before investing, such as conducting research, diversifying, and setting risk limits. Once you have mastered how to manage risk, investors will be more confident and able to make more informed decisions to reduce potential losses.

I largely get your points, yet you seem to be stating some of your points wrong.

Sure there are a variety of kinds of risks that we can identify, and then we can potentially take actions to mitigate the various risks, so for example, if we recognize various scenarios that bitcoin could go to zero (or sufficiently negative that it ultimately means zero), we can make sure that we do not invest more than we can afford to lose and we can even hedge downward. I don't personally engage in hedging...

So a lot of times we may well manage risks with our position size, and even considering downside possibilities with upside possibilities, but we sill might choose not to put everything into bitcoin because we recognize several scenarios that include downside possibilities.

We also may recognize that downside possibilities in 2025 are likely not as great as they were in either 2014 (the year of my forum registration) or 2017 (the year of your forum registration). So over the years we might create our position sizes in accordance with our perceptions of various risks, and we likely know folks who completely chose not to invest in bitcoin in either 2014 and/or 2017 because they thought that the risks outweighed the possible benefits, yet those guys are not doing as well as even the guys who took relatively modest positions and to only invest 10% of their bitcoin investment portfolio in bitcoin... or maybe some of us might have had purposefully chosen not to front load into bitcoin in the early years, and instead to spread our investment over 8 years through DCAing. Those are implementation choices to help to deal with our perception of risks, and if we overly focus on the risks, some of us might have had lost out on bitcoin's reward over the past 8 or even 11 years.

Probably in the end, position size is one of the great ways to mitigate risks, even though position size does not completely get rid of any of the risks whether known or unknown... just mitigates the risk to a level that each of us can completely decide upon, which is how much money do we want to put into bitcoin as compared with other places that we could put the money (presuming that we are referring to discretionary income).

There are also various execution risks that relate to how well we calculate and manage our money, we can create more risks if we manage/calculate badly.

Other execution risks might relate to how we store our coins (with third parties or privately) and maybe how much we might attract attention to ourselves (or our bitcoin) in terms of getting attacked, either in person or through various anonymous or quasi-anonymous ways.

By the way, another risk that each of us might consider is that there might be a variety places that we might have investments, and sure as our investments grow (even if we don't have any bitcoin), we might recognize that our various kinds of investments still have a kind of dollar (fiat) component that underlies them, so a guy who earns $30k per year might spend more than 10 years investing in various assets at a rate of around 15% of his income... so after 10 years, he would have had invested right around $45k into the investment.. so then after the 10 years, he might look at his various investments and try to figure out the extent to which they appreciated in value or depreciated in value, and are they worth more than $45k or not? Surely many assets have appreciate in terms of dollar value, especially over 10 years, we may well have a doubling of value of our various assets, yet the dollar is likely worth ONLY half as much as it was 10 years earlier.. so frequently assets will ONLY tend to keep up with their debasement rather than outpace the debasement of the dollar, and any of the asset that might haver had been kept directly in dollars rather than invested, then it would be likely worth only half as much (in terms of its purchasing power) after 10 years. Those are risks, and surely a pretty BIG risk to keep too much value directly in dollars, which is part of the reason that many of us suggest to not be over-exuberant in regards to how many dollars that we are holding beyond the three months of expenses of our emergency fund.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 17, 2025, 06:52:11 AM

If any pleb is selling his/her Bitcoin right now because "it's a good price", then let me tell you something. You're merely letting those billionaires win against you because you're giving away the only financial advantage you have against them - Your precious Bitcoin.

We have already front-ran them. Don't give them the opportunity to front-run YOU by selling now. Sell later, sell when it's in a seven figure price valuation, sell when Bitcoin has surged above Gold's total market value. 👀

Quote

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I doubt that there are any specific needs to sell our bitcoin in large amounts rather than employing some kind of a sustainable withdrawal system that can be price-based and/or time-based, even though I consider that time-based sustainable withdrawal may start to make sense earlier than time-based sustainable withdrawal.

Quote from: Kaliandra on July 17, 2025, 12:24:17 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on July 17, 2025, 06:52:11 AM

[edited out]

That's a reasonable explanation, and of course, if we sell our BTC now, those who hold a lot of it will certainly win. However, if we hold on to it, it will certainly disappoint those people because when they sell their BTC, it will certainly rise even higher, and they will certainly regret their sale.
It's indeed too early to sell BTC because it will certainly continue to rise, and the stronger we hold on, the greater the profit we will make.

Some people currently believe that a bearish season is coming, and a good way is to sell now and buy back in the bearish season. This will certainly allow us to obtain a large amount of BTC while BTC is currently falling.
However, if we use a technique like yours, we will certainly sell BTC at a very high price, and it's possible that even during a bearish season, the price of BTC will not be less than $120,000. It's true that the person who holds BTC the longest will win.

Yep. Selling and trying to buy back cheaper when we are still in our accumulation stage is not a good idea since it may well end up slowing down BTC accumulation.

Even once we reach overaccumulation status there should be no reasons to sell bitcoin with expectations of buying back cheaper. It is not a good way of managing our holdings even if we are authorizing ourselves to sell certain quantities of our BTC based on price and/or based on time.

Quote from: MainIbem on July 17, 2025, 06:46:44 PM

Quote from: Zackz5000 on July 17, 2025, 02:56:43 PM

Investors who has been accumulating Bitcoin since 2016 or below can still sell out little of Bitcoin holding if need be because they have been accumulating and holding bitcoin for a long time it's not wrong if they won't to see small of their Bitcoin while those who hasn't gone far with their Bitcoin accumulation shouldn't even think of selling or wait for the value to increase before they can sell no since such people are still in their early stage they should concentrate more buying even if the price of Bitcoin keep adding values until they have gotten enough Bitcoin portfolio or has been accumulating and holding for a period of 4-10 years and, the DCA strategy is there to help accumulate Bitcoin gradually regardless of bitcoin price and hodl.

For those set of people selling some portion is a choice if they've met their target but selling all is a big mistake and wrong idea cause it would be unwise to hodl for that long and sell everything now when there's still hope for better days of bitcoin in the future.

There can be a question of selling based on a target and/or selling within some kind of an acceptable system...

So for example maybe a guy considerably front loaded his bitcoin investment in his first cycle, and then he waited another cycle and then perhaps he set some selling targets.

Le't use your forum registration date since you are just over years of registration.

So let's say that the guy had a $30k per year salary, and a desire to invest a whole year of his income into bitcoin within the first whole cycle that he was in, which means that he would have had been investing 25% of his income into bitcoin. So he invested $150 per week from April 2017 until April 2021, and he ended up investing $31k and accumulating 5.08 BTC, which he assessed that perhaps after waiting another whole cycle, he would start to be able to sell in 2025 - however, in 2022 he saw that BTC price were going down so much that he could not resist to continue buying BTC between April 2022 and November 2023, and he bought at $200 per week during that time and so he ended up investing an additional $17k and accumulating about 0.7 BTC.

So then his total invested was $48k with a stack size of 5.78 BTC, and his total cost per BTC was around $8.3k, and he considered once the BTC price reached 10x his costs then he could start selling, which means he could start selling at $83k. He could authorize himself to sell up to 10% of his holdings at that $83k price, and then maybe every time the BTC price went up an additional 10%, he could sell up to 1% of his holdings. That would be some variation of price-based sustainable withdrawal.

Alternatively, if his goal was to be able to generate a passive income that was at least 2x his current income (meaning $60k per year), then he would have to get the 200-WMA up to $600k, and in December 2023, the 200-WMA only puts his stash at $168k, so it seems that he might need to keep stacking rather than presuming that he has enough bitcoin or more than enough.

So maybe in January 2024, he decides to go back to stacking sats, but he is going to do it at $150 per week, since $200 per week was too much of a stresser on him, so then over the next 15-ish months, he invests another $10k and accumulated an additional 0.15 BTC.

So then now his total is $58k invested and 5.93 BTC, which ONLY puts him at about half of his goal and ability currently to produce a sustainable income of $29.6k, which truly is not bad but not quite where he wanted to be... and maybe in some sense he could either continue to stack BTC or he could stop stacking bitcoin and let the price come to him, since probably after another 1-2 years or maybe 3 years on the outside, the BTC amount, even if it stays the same at 5.93 BTC, might be able to produce enough income for him to draw upon it at $60k per year.... which largely means that he wants to wait for the 200-WMA to reach $100k, which seems to have reasonable odds of happening in the next two years.

Quote from: MainIbem on July 17, 2025, 06:46:44 PM

However one who's not even lasted in their hodling journey for up to a circle or decade is the biggest lower and would definitely regret in future when the number goes higher, many who did that in the past all regretted and had their own stories and advice all over the media, bitcoin has shown potential of being an investment opportunity which offers generational wealth for those who remain patient and hodl for long-term not for those who come into it for quick wealth.

I think that it is better for a guy to reach overaccumulation status first and then not to sell so much as to take him out of overaccumulation status, and you are likely correct that there are guys who sell too many BTC too early and they end up knocking themselves out of the possibility of reaching overaccumulation status even before they get there.