In my opinion, the peak of the Bitcoin price (in each bull cycle) is always a test of one or another hypothesis of traders and investors. Let me give you a specific example...

The maximum price of the first cryptocurrency at $19,000 in 2017 became a test of the hypothesis that the price of Bitcoin could be $20,000. When it turned out that this was not the case, the bear market began (since 2018). It should be noted that throughout the bear market, the average price of the first cryptocurrency was about $10,000. In 2021, the hypothesis that the price of Bitcoin could be $100,000 was actually tested (disproved). At $69,000, the growth of the Bitcoin price stopped. Then the price went down. At the same time, the price of $20,000 became the average price of the first cryptocurrency in the new bear market.  What hypothesis (sequence of hypotheses) will traders and investors test in this bull cycle?
There could be different options here...🧠

Perhaps this hypothesis is that the price will be $200,000. Then we will have a peak around $160,000.
Perhaps the final hypothesis is that the price will be $300,000. In this case, the peak of the first cryptocurrency will be around $220,000-$260,000.🧘
Then the peak will be around $220,000-$260,000.
If the final hypothesis of traders and investors is that the price may be $500,000 (this seems completely unbelievable now, right?), then we may well have a peak of $380,000.
In any case, traders and investors have already become accustomed to the price of $100,000 and consider it a normal, fair price. Why do I think so? This price has hardly changed since November 2024 on average.  It should be recognized that we cannot predict the price peak in advance - everything will depend on the chain of hypotheses that traders will test. ✍️

In my opinion, since we are talking about an initial price of $ 100,000, the hypotheses will test the possibility of reaching a price multiple of $ 100,000 ($ 200,000, $ 300,000, $ 500,000). In my opinion, this is the only thing that can be said for sure now.💫

In my opinion, the peak of the Bitcoin price (in each bull cycle) is always a test of one or another hypothesis of traders and investors. Let me give you a specific example...

The maximum price of the first cryptocurrency at $19,000 in 2017 became a test of the hypothesis that the price of Bitcoin could be $20,000. When it turned out that this was not the case, the bear market began (since 2018). It should be noted that throughout the bear market, the average price of the first cryptocurrency was about $10,000. In 2021, the hypothesis that the price of Bitcoin could be $100,000 was actually tested (disproved). At $69,000, the growth of the Bitcoin price stopped. Then the price went down. At the same time, the price of $20,000 became the average price of the first cryptocurrency in the new bear market.  What hypothesis (sequence of hypotheses) will traders and investors test in this bull cycle?
There could be different options here...🧠

Perhaps this hypothesis is that the price will be $200,000. Then we will have a peak around $160,000.
Perhaps the final hypothesis is that the price will be $300,000.
Then the peak will be around $220,000-$260,000.
If the final hypothesis of traders and investors is that the price may be $500,000 (this seems completely unbelievable now, right?), then we may well have a peak of $380,000.
In any case, traders and investors have already become accustomed to the price of $100,000 and consider it a normal, fair price. Why do I think so? This price has hardly changed since November 2024 on average.  It should be recognized that we cannot predict the price peak in advance - everything will depend on the chain of hypotheses that traders will test. ✍️

In my opinion, since we are talking about an initial price of $ 100,000, the hypotheses will test the possibility of reaching a price multiple of $ 100,000 ($ 200,000, $ 300,000, $ 500,000). In my opinion, this is the only thing that can be said for sure now.💫