Quote from: kanftka on Today at 06:58:24 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 18, 2025, 09:04:39 PM

Surely there could be guys who are selling up to 10% of their BTC stash every time it doubles (and they don't have to wait for a doubling, they could sell 1% every time it goes up 10%), and maybe they started doing that several years ago. As long as BTC continues going up, they are never going to run out of coins, and BTC keeps gaining in value more than the amounts of their sales. This is price based sustainable withdrawal.

Yeah, this is exactly what i was trying to say. Some of these guys have been deep in the game since way back. So when someone like that decides to offload 1% here and there, it’s not because they’re bearish, it’s just part of the play. They must have been holding for 10+ years, so they have earned the right to take some chips off the table now and then.
They could also employ time based sustainable withdrawal.. for example to sell 10% of the dollar value of their stash every year based on the 200-WMA value.. and the 200-WMA is quite likely going up more than 10% per year.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 18, 2025, 09:04:39 PM

They could also employ time based sustainable withdrawal.. for example to sell 10% of the dollar value of their stash every year based on the 200-WMA value.. and the 200-WMA is quite likely going up more than 10% per year.

That 200 WMA method is actually smart. Most of us don’t even look at stuff like that, we are too focused on daily movement and hype. But if basing yearly sell on something solid like the 200 week average, which usually trends up anyway, then position is still been preserved while locking in value slowly. This seem like a chill, sustainable way to manage long term gains..

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 18, 2025, 09:04:39 PM

Hopefully you are buying and building and not just hodling.. but hey that is your choice..

Yeah no doubt, I’m definitely building too, doing it based on my financial strength right now and stacking what I can, been staying consistent lately and holding tight. Rn I see it as long term, trying not to rush things..

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 18, 2025, 09:04:39 PM

Guys frequently make mistakes of selling too much too soon and they also make mistakes of failing to continue to accumulate. From my perspective HODL is good once you have enough or more than enough, but if you have not come close to that level of BTC accumulation, then you need to keep buying bitcoin consistently, persistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively.. and don't get too worried about BTC price, especially in your first cycle of accumulating and maybe even in your first two cycles, depending on how much a guy had been able to accumulate in his first cycle of buying.

You’re absolutely right though, a lot of people either sell too early or stop buying too soon, and then they miss the full ride. For me, I know I’m still in my first real cycle, so I’m not letting price movements distract me. My goal now is to accumulate as much as I reasonably can without overextending, and just keep showing up. .

It is likely going to take longer to build your holdings these days as compared with bitcoin historically, even 5 years ago, but it is not like we can turn back the clock or identify some bitcoin 2.0 to divert our capital into. Bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best place to put time, energy and value, so in several senses, each of us just need to do what we can within our means to continue to accumulate bitcoin through ongoing buying techniques and perhaps from time to time make some reassessments regarding the extent to which we might need to change any aspects of our ongoing and persistent bitcoin accumulation through ongoing buying strategies.

Quote from: Silikiem on Today at 02:33:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 18, 2025, 09:58:56 PM

Quote from: |MINER| on July 18, 2025, 09:24:41 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 18, 2025, 09:04:39 PM

Quote from: Tonimez on July 18, 2025, 06:39:35 AM

When holding, we should target at least 4 to 10 years time so that we give enough time when possibly, we stand chances of making higher gains even though you are not obliged to sell off after this holding period too.

Even if you are mentioning 4-10 years or longer as a possible timeline to hold your bitcoin, you still seem to be thinking about bitcoin in terms of a trade rather than an investment since it seems to make little to no sense to build up a bitcoin investment in bitcoin and then transition into selling all of it.. but yeah, people have difficulties considering that they would continue to hold their bitcoin investment through their life, even if they might also be selling parts of it from time to time.

In fact, Bitcoin should not be considered as either a trading or investment asset, but rather as an asset that is a lot like holding gold in reserve.
Because gold is an asset that increases in value over time 50 years from now, on the other hand, if we keep the money we traditionally keep in a bank for 50 years, that amount will decrease several times due to inflation.

No, I am not saying to people that put all their eggs in one basket. If someone wants, they can spend the minimum amount they can afford here like 10$ per week but that should be regularly, like we deposit our salary on banks.
And if people take Bitcoin as their strategic reserve in this way, then in the future they will be able to beat the inflation of the fiat currencies in their banks and will be economically strong.

And besides, it's not like a person can't take any other strategy separately rather investing $10. In addition to the weekly investment of $10, he can also make a 4-year to 10-year investment plan if he wants. Wink

Even though I might not disagree with you (since we might be saying similar things, but just choosing different ways to say it), your description of how to consider bitcoin comes off as a bit strange the way that you described it and the way that I understood it.

I don't really disagree with the idea of building up wealth in bitcoin, and then when the wealth level gets up to a certain level it can start to be used to live off of, yet if a guy has other sources of income besides his bitcoin wealth then the bitcoin income (wealth) may well supplement his other kinds of income, to the extent that he might choose to draw from his bitcoin or just live completely off his other income and even build up his bitcoin holdings from his work-related income..

It seems to me that people are able to get to a sizable level of bitcoin wealth that they are able to live off of their bitcoin for the rest of their lives without working, yet at the same time, if they choose to work, then they could live off of that earned income first, and maybe continue to build up their bitcoin from that earned income in the event that they might want even more bitcoin to build up since the more bitcoin they accumulate, then the higher their level of sustained withdrawal could be from their bitcoin holdings at any time that they might chose not to work or might not need to earn income from work in order to sustain their chosen lifestyle - and sure hopefully if they are at a point in their lives of withdrawing from their bitcoin holdings, then they would be able to do it in a sustainable way, which largely means that their bitcoin is gaining in value at a faster rate than they are withdrawing from it.

Very real and I like the fact that you were able to analyze some sustainable bitcoin withdrawal methods which when practiced will not only be for an investors profit making but also it will add more value to their holdings instead of it reducing in value. The point is bitcoin is not a get rich quick investment, but it has a potential wealth for the future and at such anyone venturing into it and for the person to enjoy this potential wealth in the future and to be able to live off of your bitcoin investment incase the person doesn’t have any other means of earning should not embark on selling or trading especially if the accumulation target isn’t met yet. It is advisable you even get to your over accumulation stage and even more so, with additional 20-25% of your bitcoin Value before one can comfortably be able to withdraw or decide to sell part of his holdings without negatively affecting his investment. With the right approach and sustainable withdrawal method one can be able to withdraw from his bitcoin holdings and it will not negatively affect his portfolio instead it will increase in value.

I was not making my own systems of sustainable withdrawal, even if I have some ways of framing sustainable withdrawal that seems to be particularly applicable to sustainable bitcoin withdrawal.

Traditional sustainable withdrawal system have tended to allow 4% annual sustainable withdrawal with assumptions that on average your portfolio would perform at leas 4% or better.

I merely applied that to bitcoin and used the 200-WMA as the measure of value, since the 200-WMA tends to represent bottom prices, and also tends to ongoingly go up (and surely has way less volatility as compared with BTC spot prices). Another great thing about the 200-WMA is that it is a delayed indicator, which can give some confidence in regards to continuing to withdraw, yet if the spot BTC price starts to perform poorly in its relation to the 200-WMA, then we can maybe anticipate that the 200-WMA is going to start to go up more slowly in the future and/or that we might want to adjust our withdrawal rate based on the relationships of BTC prices as compared with the 200-WMA.. and it works in both directions to withdraw more slowly when the BTC prices are low as compared with the 200-WMA or to withdraw some months in advance if the BTC price is playing out as much higher than the 200-WMA. I discuss these various considerations in my sustainable withdrawal thread.