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Edited on 21/07/2025, 06:40:42 UTC
Quantum computers need to reach at least 1 million qubits to be able to threaten bitcoin instead of 10-20 million as before. But meanwhile, the most powerful quantum computer today is IBM's Condor, with 1,121 qubits. And as far as I know, quantum computers have been researched and developed since 1980, which means after 27 years, they have only achieved 1,121 qubits. At that rate, how many years do you think it will take to reach 1 million qubits?
The 20-30 year time frame is a fairly conservative prediction, as at the current rate of development, quantum computers could take much longer to get there.
The 20-30 year time frame is a fairly conservative prediction, as at the current rate of development, quantum computers could take much longer to get there.
The rate of development increases exponentially, not linearly, so judging future progress based on what has been achieved so far is incorrect.
There are engineering problems that take years to solve, then it’s just a matter of scaling and further optimizing the technology for the consumer market.
| Year | CPU Model | Transistor Count |
| 1971 | Intel 4004 | ~2.3K |
| 1985 | Intel 80386 | ~275K |
| 1993 | Intel Pentium | ~3.1M |
| 2000 | Pentium 4 | ~42M |
| 2006 | Core 2 Duo | ~291M |
| 2008 | Core i7 (Nehalem) | ~731M |
| 2011 | Xeon/Core i7 (6-core) | ~2.27B |
| 2014 | Xeon Ivy Bridge-EX | ~4.3B |
| 2019 | AMD Ryzen 3000 (Zen 2) | ~5.8B total |
| 2020 | AMD Ryzen 9 3950X | ~10B |
You can observe this technological progress in every field. Take cars, for example: 30 years ago, 500 hp and sub-4-second times to 100 kph were reserved for exotic supercars. Today, you can find these numbers in family wagons and SUVs, while exotic cars have moved to 1,000+ hp and sub-2-second times to 100 kph, even with all the ecological restrictions imposed on them.
We are not at the technological peak, we are still cavemen who have barely stepped out of the cave, and the snowball has just started to roll.
By the way , Bitcoin uses the SHA-256 algorithm, which is also the algorithm that banks, corporations , and even governments are using to protect confidential information. If quantum computers can threaten bitcoin, traditional systems will suffer the same fate as bitcoin.
Yes, but banks and other entities you pointed out can recover faster and upgrade more easily, as they are centralized and do not lose much business in the process.
Bitcoin would lose a significant portion, as people would lose trust in it, and it is neither easily recoverable nor easy to upgrade (hard fork).
Original archived Re: Safely storing bitcoins
Scraped on 21/07/2025, 06:11:08 UTC
Quantum computers need to reach at least 1 million qubits to be able to threaten bitcoin instead of 10-20 million as before. But meanwhile, the most powerful quantum computer today is IBM's Condor, with 1,121 qubits. And as far as I know, quantum computers have been researched and developed since 1980, which means after 27 years, they have only achieved 1,121 qubits. At that rate, how many years do you think it will take to reach 1 million qubits?
The 20-30 year time frame is a fairly conservative prediction, as at the current rate of development, quantum computers could take much longer to get there.
The 20-30 year time frame is a fairly conservative prediction, as at the current rate of development, quantum computers could take much longer to get there.
The rate of development increases exponentially, not linearly, so judging future progress based on what has been achieved so far is incorrect.
There are engineering problems that take years to solve, then it’s just a matter of scaling and further optimizing the technology for the consumer market.
By the way , Bitcoin uses the SHA-256 algorithm, which is also the algorithm that banks, corporations , and even governments are using to protect confidential information. If quantum computers can threaten bitcoin, traditional systems will suffer the same fate as bitcoin.
Yes, but banks and other entities you pointed out can recover faster and upgrade more easily, as they are centralized and do not lose much business in the process.
Bitcoin would lose a significant portion, as people would lose trust in it, and it is neither easily recoverable nor easy to upgrade (hard fork).