Quote from: 9ja Amaka on July 21, 2025, 02:11:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 21, 2025, 03:26:56 AM

Even with myself. I had been through the downside of the 2013 cycle and both the upside and downside of the 2017 cycle, but even in 2019-2021 when the BTC price went up from $4,200 in April 2019 to $64k in April 2021 and then it dropped to $30k in summer 2021 and returned to $69k in November 2021, there can be some periods of surprise to have some wallets go up somewhere in the ballpark of 16x from the bottom to the top.

Even some folks in this particular cycle might have had some coins that they bought or held in November/December 2022 that were in the $16k to $20k prices, and even now when we had BTC prices go up to $120k, so then those coins had gone up 6x to 7x, which is also nothing to sneeze at, and there are folks who never had experienced 2x or 3x in value appreciating through their lives and then they are able to personally experience 6x/7x price appreciation in the past 2.5 years.. and if a guy is still accumulating he might not know what to do. If a guy had done most of his accumulation prior to October 2023, he might just feel so amazed to be on the journey, if we might consider the possibility that some guys had gotten enough BTC, yet there are way more guys who are still needing to accumulate and not to get thrown off by past bitcoin price performance in regards to their need to keep accumulating bitcoin no matter the price so that maybe they will be in a better place 4-10 years or more down the road.

What the newer folks need to know is that even if they have experience the bull run in one or two cycles, it cant affect your portfolio value in terms of numbers or fraction in the portfolio but it shakes your foundation. Let me explain more further. Like the example you gave, someone who is up 6x or 7x since 2022 may think they are there yet but when they rethink of what the value in fiat is, and the purchasing power their thinking shifts. That's basically the period where most folks start justifying their actions, gradually deviating from their initial plan by either pausing their accumulation completely or reduce the way they accumulate believing they have bought enough.

Again that is exactly what place the older folks at an advantage over the newer folks. Its not because we/they are smarter, but because they have already lived through many experiences especially in the early stage. Either selling too soon or timing the market when we should have actually buy. So yeah, it's not by looking at charts, pressing the calculator on how much we wish to buy. But its about staying focused long enough to keep DCAeing even after our portfolio has made 6x or 7x as the case may be. No matter the cause, let's at least keep buying high/low and holding long enough to make more ATH.

Sure. There likely are folks that get too caught up upon short term changes, and surely if the guy had done most of his accumulation prior to 2021, then he likely would be in a better position than the guy who just got started in 2022.. and even the guy in 2022 might not have had the courage to lump sum buy at various points in 2022, so then many of us likely realize that even if we have lump sum amounts available it takes time to build up a bitcoin position, even though surely we can take a snapshot of our bitcoin holdings in November/December 2022 and we can take snapshot of those same holdings today and see that their dollar value is 6x to 7x higher than in was in late 2022.

Guys cannot go back in time, either, and they have to figure out if they had already been accumulating bitcoin aggressively for 1, 2 or 3 years, then they are likely in a better place than a guy who is just starting to accumulate BTC right now, yet the guy just starting to accumulate bitcoin right now, has to focus on his accumulation right now since he is likely going to be much better off than his peers (those of similar economic levels) 4-10 years or longer down the road... and yeah, some guys who have been accumulating BTC more than 3 years might start to wrongly conclude that they have enough bitcoin or more than enough, and they may well not even be close enough to having enough.. especially if they have an income of $30k and they have invested way less than $30k into bitcoin over the past 3 years or so.

I frequently proclaim that even a guy who invests around 25% of his income into bitcoin, it still is going to take him 4 years to invest a whole year of his income into bitcoin, and not too many folks are able to focus themselves sufficiently to consistently and persistently buy bitcoin with 25% of their income over 4 years or longer... so yeah, maybe after a person has invested 4 years into bitcoin and 25% of their income each year and a full year's income into bitcoin over 4 years, then maybe he might be in a position to slow down in his accumulation of bitcoin after 4 years, yet he probably would not be in a position to start selling any, yet... even if he may well be tempted to engage in such selling, it may well be for his own good to accumulate another whole cycle, and whether he accumulates at the same rate or maybe he slows down his accumulation rate, but at least maybe after two cycles, he might be getting closer to a position that he might be able to start to engage in sustainable withdrawal of either price based and/or time based. perhaps? perhaps?

Like you mentioned, guys make their choices, and they are not always correct in their assessment of what to do. Sometimes they make the mistake of ending up selling too much of their BTC too soon or they end up making the mistake of slowing down in their BTC accumulation too soon.

Quote from: Miramax12 on July 21, 2025, 02:43:50 PM

Quote from: 9ja Amaka on July 21, 2025, 02:11:20 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 21, 2025, 03:26:56 AM

Even with myself. I had been through the downside of the 2013 cycle and both the upside and downside of the 2017 cycle, but even in 2019-2021 when the BTC price went up from $4,200 in April 2019 to $64k in April 2021 and then it dropped to $30k in summer 2021 and returned to $69k in November 2021, there can be some periods of surprise to have some wallets go up somewhere in the ballpark of 16x from the bottom to the top.

Even some folks in this particular cycle might have had some coins that they bought or held in November/December 2022 that were in the $16k to $20k prices, and even now when we had BTC prices go up to $120k, so then those coins had gone up 6x to 7x, which is also nothing to sneeze at, and there are folks who never had experienced 2x or 3x in value appreciating through their lives and then they are able to personally experience 6x/7x price appreciation in the past 2.5 years.. and if a guy is still accumulating he might not know what to do. If a guy had done most of his accumulation prior to October 2023, he might just feel so amazed to be on the journey, if we might consider the possibility that some guys had gotten enough BTC, yet there are way more guys who are still needing to accumulate and not to get thrown off by past bitcoin price performance in regards to their need to keep accumulating bitcoin no matter the price so that maybe they will be in a better place 4-10 years or more down the road.

What the newer folks need to know is that even if they have experience the bull run in one or two cycles, it cant affect your portfolio value in terms of numbers or fraction in the portfolio but it shakes your foundation. Let me explain more further. Like the example you gave, someone who is up 6x or 7x since 2022 may think they are there yet but when they rethink of what the value in fiat is, and the purchasing power their thinking shifts. That's basically the period where most folks start justifying their actions, gradually deviating from their initial plan by either pausing their accumulation completely or reduce the way they accumulate believing they have bought enough.

Again that is exactly what place the older folks at an advantage over the newer folks. Its not because we/they are smarter, but because they have already lived through many experiences especially in the early stage. Either selling too soon or timing the market when we should have actually buy. So yeah, it's not by looking at charts, pressing the calculator on how much we wish to buy. But its about staying focused long enough to keep DCAeing even after our portfolio has made 6x or 7x as the case may be. No matter the cause, let's at least keep buying high/low and holding long enough to make more ATH.

It’s wild to think about how some people have seen their BTC holdings multiply 6x, 7x, or even more, especially when compared to others who’ve never even experienced a 2x or 3x gain in their lifetime.

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to be amazing in the realm of returns, especially for folk who errored on the side of ongoing accumulation and not selling their bitcoin... So even the person who experienced 6x to 7x gains since November 2022, he would have had ONLY experienced such gains on the coins that he was holding at that time in late 2022, and it seems to me sometimes difficult for someone to persistently have had been buying bitcoin through 2020, 2021 and 2022, and some of the coins the guy would have had bought would have had been bought at higher prices in 2021, yet if he had started sufficiently early in 2020, he might have had bought some coins in 2020 that were in the sub $10k territory that might average out and offset several of the coins that he bought in 2021 that might have had been in the $30ks, $40ks, $50ks and even $60ks..., but if the guy had been accumulating $100 of bitcoin per week for 4 years from January 2020 until January 2024, then he might have had invested right around $21k and accumulated a whole bitcoin. Surely not a bad place to be.

Yet, sure, some coins cost more and some coins cost less, and his persistence then got him to a decent place, and surely 1 BTC might not be enough for a guy like that, and he maybe well have had been better off to keep accumulating bitcoin. So maybe if in 2024 he increased his weekly DCA to $200 per week, then from January 2024 until April 2025, he would have had invested another $13.4 k and accumulated another 0.2 BTC.

So then his current costs would be about $34.4k with a total of 1.2 BTC... not a bad place to be, but still maybe not enough BTC for someone who might have a $30k or more income that he might be looking to replace with bitcoin passive income in the future. Right now with his 1.2 BTC, he probably ONLY has eniugh BTC to sustain about a $6k per year income, so he might need to keep stacking for another cycle and he might get close to having 1.2 BTC or whatever additional amount that he is able to stack to be enough to support a $30k to $50k-ish per year income. I think such a guy is on the right path if his goals are to achieve a $30k to $50k passive income, and he mayight be able to achieve such within another cycle-ish.. maybe 5-6 years from now would be more realistic if he keeps investing into bitcoin at around $200 per week..

I think if he chooses to not invest anymore into bitcoin and just stays with 1.2 BTC, then it might take close to two whole cycles before that 1.2 BTC would be able to support passive income of $30k to $50k-ish per year.

Quote from: Miramax12 on July 21, 2025, 02:43:50 PM

But what really hits home is the reminder that this journey isn’t just about quick wins it’s about the long game. Whether you’re just starting to accumulate or have been holding for years, staying steady and focused on the future can make all the difference. Bitcoin’s price may fluctuate, but patience and consistency could set us up for something greater down the road.

Bitcoin seems to be a great opportunity for those willing to take it and to figure out a way to invest as aggressively as they are able to without overdoing it... Yet it is also not guaranteed to be successful since there is both execution risk and also risk of the asset itself.