Quote from: Gachapin on Today at 08:50:21 AM

how low do we go?

maybe we need to test 100 one last time before boarding the winter rocket

Never say never, yet it is hardly even necessary to get that level of correction in order to shake out quite a few weak hands.

With our 200-WMA still lingering at $50,400, I am not willing to bet any higher than $80k in terms of where I would be saying that the BTC price will not go below such price point prior to the end of 2025 and therefore never again.. since by the time we get to the end of 2025, the 200-WMA should be at least $75k by then.. god willing... yet my own personal bitcoin management system recognizes (and therefore accepts) that BTC's spot price could go 35% below the 200-WMA in bear markets, so maybe mid-to-late 2026 or thereafter.

During bull markets, which we are in right now, the spot price should not even come close to going below 25% above the 200-WMA, and $0k is close to 60% above the 200-WMA, so it would even be a risky bet for me to take in regards to my assertion that sub $0k will never be touched again, even though I am willing to take it for funzies... I personally believe that sub $100k is less than 50/50 odds within the next several weeks, yet at the same time, I would not bet it.. ..I am not even sure what number I would put on sub $100k. Maybe ballparkedly 42% or so?.. not that 42% is much different from 50%. just slightly different in the whole scheme of things.. which is maybe again why sub $100k is not bettable from my perspective, unless I am able to receive odds, like 90% or something like that.

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 03:19:19 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on Today at 01:18:20 PM

It's the last friday of this month, so Future's gap(s) wanna be filled.
I'll prepare for recovery on monday, maybe even earlier.
#nothingtoseehere

Then we will be "poor" for only a few days

I've recently turned my luck around when it comes to selling BTC, because usually whenever I sell the price would jump in the next 24 hours, now when I sell the price drops. It's not about large amounts, but about something that helps a little to make it easier to survive until the next monthly salary.

Part of the difficulty in selling is to figure out when to buy back in so that you actually end up having more BTC than you had upon selling.

Personally, I would not recommend anyone to sell, unless they don't have any expectation of buying back lower.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 04:32:52 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:11:32 AM

Quote from: kanftka on Today at 05:33:55 AM

Never stop DCA’ing

Personally, I prefer weekly rather than daily, but sure at that rate of $50 per day or maybe $350 per week, maybe a couple of times a week for the buys would be cool with me to try to buy during dips in the week.

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 05:50:56 AM

Buying the dip at $115K is a crazy thing to experience. Not going to lie, I thought we would all be flying around in helicopters when Bitcoin hit $4K, so maybe hitting a million is that far fetched. I always thought that if it happened people would be too rich, but looking back I guess I always thought that…

It is funny how redistribution of wealth takes place in a somewhat invisible kind of a way. Some folks take a bit of time, too, to get used to figuring out how to spend their money.

50/day or $350/wk is a solid 18.2K/year DCA and it is probably close to a maximum that a family (or a person) with middle class income (70-150K) in US can afford sans a ramen "diet".
However, 18K a year starting mid 2025 would most likely would not make someone "rich" in 2030, but they might have a good "emergency fund".

Ok.... I am not even sure if that rate of stacking would get them a whole bitcoin after 10 years. Perphaps? Perhaps?

$18,200 per year is $182k invested over 10 years.

Sure it is possible that might have had been able to get a whole bitcoin in 10 years, and the BTC price may be bounding around a million or more at that time.

Yes, I know you had proposed 7 years for our staying in the 6 digits and it is looking like I am being more bearish.

By the way my current projection of the 200-WMA, only shows between $550k and $600k for mid 2035... . and I am not showing the 200-WMA going above $1 million until either late 2038 or early 2039... yet of course, the numbers can change based on either upwards or downwards steppenings.

By the way, my projection of the 200-WMA shows right around 1.5 BTC as entry level fuck you status in mid-2035, so it could be possible that a guy investing $350 per week, and then maybe adding some various buys at other times during the year (like if he got bonuses), could assure himself to make sure that he reaches a couple of BTC. I figure that a guy who is able to invest $350 per week or $18.2k per year, he is likely making more than $60k per year, otherwise it is difficult to imagine normal guys being able to put that much in bitcoin, even though surely some of the wages are going up, even with the dollar ongoingly debasing.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 04:32:52 PM

If you'll have an average of 40% yearly appreciation during 2025-2030 time frame, my approximation shows a final sum of about $279K value, give or take $20K (compound interest calculator gives a 248-291K value depending on interest rate being a fixed yearly 40% or compounded yearly 40%)).
A nice "fund" for emergencies and buying a house, for example, but definitely not "rich".

I have $230k for the 200-WMA in mid-2030, so it seems that spot prices are going to be higher, even though sure 2030 might be a correction year, to the extent that cycles might still exist... and yeah, 2030 is not that far away, so better to just assume cycles to still exist.