Quote from: philipma1957 on July 26, 2025, 11:36:37 AM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on July 26, 2025, 07:00:07 AM

So when do we think the next breakout to the upside is going to happen?
We seem to have been stuck in a tight range of $115,000 to $120,000 for a while, even though it hasn’t been long at all. I must admit, I didn’t enjoy the dump during the last 24 hrs.

I think once we chip away at and eventually pierce the ATH of $123,000 we will run for a while, possibly touching $140,000. Maybe we stay in this range for another 2-3 weeks before we explode upwards.
The only thing that’s certain is nothing is stopping this train from hitting between $150,000 and $200,000 before the end of the year.

Holy shit 114.9k was not a dump a stumble sure . A pause for buddy to catch his breath okay fine, but not a dump.
123.1x.80=98.48 thats a dump
123.1x.93=114.483 no dump

note I use 123.1 as the high it was higher as I sold some at 123,123

Fair enough that $114,518^** was not a dump of meaning. .it was only 7%-ish from top to bottom.

**You know we are using bitstamp in these here parts, no?

Regarding our so far top that would be $123,236. You do have access to https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd in your parts, no?

You just want to be stubborn, right? Stubborn for the sake of being stubborn, right?

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 26, 2025, 11:36:37 AM

now do I think we go under 100k giving us a 20% correction then fly to over 200k in Nov sure why not it could happen.

I mentioned in another response to you that you seem to be considering the odds to go below $100k to be quite great.. Maybe greater than 70%? Too bad that you have so many orders waiting to be bought at prices that might not end up happening. I doubt that the odds are as great as you consider them to be. Sure it could happen, but not as great of odds as you are playing.

I will grant you that 20% corrections are not that unusual, but if we get up before down, then more than 20% will be needed in order to challenge $100k.

Sure if we go to $130k then 30%, and if we go to $140k then 40% and then if we go to $150k then 50%.. so it could become harder and harder to get all the way back down to $100k, even though we could get a 20% correction at any time, but we don't necessarily need a 20% correction at this time.

Quote from: shahzadafzal on July 26, 2025, 11:45:40 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 26, 2025, 11:36:37 AM

.......
note I use 123.1 as the high it was higher as I sold some at 123,123
....

sold some to buy back under 100k again.

we have a secret sauce now.

Phil cannot help himself. He likes having fun staying poor.

In relation to bitcoin, he's been doing it for years and years.

Quote from: ESG on July 26, 2025, 12:37:57 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 22, 2025, 08:49:42 PM

Quote from: ESG on July 22, 2025, 01:53:06 PM

_These same ones who have been buying large quantities for a few years,
like, Microstrategy, Elon, Trump, funds in general, they will also sell this someday, ...
...I wonder how and when they will do it...

Likely you need to worry about your own stack rather than being worried about various future sales of bitcoin that might or might not happen.
Have you been stacking bitcoin? If so, do you have enough or more than enough bitcoin? if you answer no to either of those questions then it seems that you need to keep stacking... through buying... you don't stack bitcoin through selling, contrary to the beliefs of some ill-informed folks who also might sometimes go by the name, "trader."

Since that day I have been thinking every day about how I can answer that I try to hold BTC and at the same time I try to trade to increase the BTC (Satoshi) that I try to keep, of course by trading, rarely do I succeed,... And at the same time last year I had to sell a good part of what I had saved because I don't have much money, and it was sad for me....... and nowdays is hard to buy without IDs, KYCs, and i dont want buy to pay taxexss for governaments... or, so that they know how much I bought and how much I have, and what I do with it.

_So, even so, I still think that those who buy large amounts, will sell part of it to buy back or even to withdraw a profit,....

I think that you are likely reading way too many trading forums (threads), and you likely need to concentrate on yourself rather than speculating that everyone is killing it trading, since there likely are not as many people trading and making a killing as you might believe them to be.

Holy sheit.. I also see you have been registered on the forum since September 2018, so you have had plenty of time to accumulate enough BTC.. yet there is still a secret to accumulate bitcoin as aggressively as you can without over doing it.. so if you ended up selling while you are still in your accumulation period, then you over did it.

You have to have back up funds to attempt to account for mistakes that you might make, especially if you had been trying to accumulate bitcoin aggressively. You cannot (or you should not) be trying to accumulate bitcoin aggressively if you do not keep enough back up funds in order to account for your making mistakes, and you cannot be using back up funds (especially the emergency funds) to buy dips. You have to have some extra cash to deal with fluctuations in your income and/or your expenses.

if you make mistakes, then the selling of bitcoin to cover your mistakes may well end up causing you sales levels that you will never be able to completely recover from.

You cannot really do anything to make up for the past, and so you just have to figure out some bitcoin buying methods and cashflow management practices that allow you to be as aggressive as you are able to be without over doing it, and if you already ended up overdoing it in the past, you should try to learn from that mistake, which is that you likely need to keep more cash on hand than you had been keeping, so you ended up taking too many chances and then you had to pay for having had taken more chances than you should have had taken.

You can ONLY fix yourself from today.. and of course, you have to look at your bitcoin stash that you have so far accumulated. .and figure out how much more that you need. If you fucked up badly enough then you might need to focus on accumulating bitcoin through buying persistently, consistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively for at least another whole bitcoin cycle and perhaps more. From my perspective, you do not accumulate more bitcoin by selling.. so you have to figure out how to concentrate on buying.

Yeah, I know you cannot help yourself, you want to sell at the top or on the way up and to buy back lower, yet that is not an assured way to accumulate more bitcoin, since you have already identified that you need more bitcoin, so you should not be fucking around selling any bitcoin until you have reached overaccumulation status...

Overaccumulation status does not need to be the same as fuck you status, even though you still have to figure out when you have reached it and not to conclude wrongedly. Guys so much want to get into trading, so they want to get to overaccumulation status so that they can trade, but I don't believe in that way to deal with your bitcoin. From my perspective you never sell bitcoin with the intention of buying back cheaper because that is too risky... and it is worse if you had not already reached overaccumulation status. Another thing about overaccumulation status, even if you are authorized to start selling bitcoin because you are in overaccumulation status, you should not be selling so many bitcoin that you end up knocking yourself out of overaccumulation status. that is not good. You should not want to spend years getting to overaccumulation status in order to knock yourself out of such status. That would not make sense.

Anyhow.. maybe i have said enough on this point for now?

Quote from: kanftka on July 26, 2025, 04:18:14 PM

CAN YOU HODL??

https://x.com/lynk0x/status/1949050059162591354?s=46

Even that might be a bit rich, yet there could be guys who got 2,000-ish bitcoin in and around 2013, but if he bought 2,000 coins at $100 each that would have had cost around $200k.. which seems a bit much for an initial investment into bitcoin.. not impossible but a little detached from a regular guy's kind of a budget.

I consider investing $100k over 5 years to be potentially reasonable.. and sure there could be guys who came to bitcoin, yet they hade other investments, so they could have had moved their other investments into bitcoin, so that could have had gotten them a large budget in a short period of time.

Quote from: Yorubek on July 26, 2025, 04:35:32 PM

Nothing is impossible with Bitcoin. The end of 2025 could be the biggest rally in Bitcoin history.
Bitcoin Power Curve Cycle Cloud predicts $200,000 by the end of 2025.
The stars are aligning for a massive year-end rally.

https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1949093327892299895?t=19

A rally from $120k-ish up to $200k-ish is not the biggest rally in Bitcoin history. - especially if we think in terms of percentages.

But sure, bitcoin is getting BIGGER, so its size is starting to be noticed, and so rallies with BIGGER numbers come off as more impressive, even though they are not bigger in terms of percentages.

Maybe if we went from $120k-ish to $1.2 million-ish (that is a 10x-ish) within a 4- 8month timeframe, that would start to get to being a kind of impressiveness. in terms of "BIG" - even though such rally still would be less than the 2017 rally from $250 to $19,666 (which was 78x) in 2 years.

In other words, maybe we might consider going to $200k as the beginning of impressive rather than if it were impressive in and of itself and/or as if it were the top end of "impressive," when it is not even close to a real meaningful level of impressive that might be somewhere in the 10x ballpark... .. and even if we merely measured the beginning of the $69k Trump pump and then extent such Trump pump as a 10x, then that would give us $690k, and surely such a thing could be impressive if it were to hit within a year of when it started in October/November 2024.. so somewhere in October or November 2025 we might hit $690k, that would be fairly impressive. right?

Quote from: Biodom on July 26, 2025, 05:36:19 PM

For those who trade to increase the stash and not to DCA...
When was the last time you should have sold NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, etc etc in the last, say, 15 years?
The correct answer is probably "never".

A. Back in some interviews (https://youtu.be/ykLZ_xg6FB4?t=669 or even better articulated here: https://youtu.be/o0Qe1CZssek?t=1829) said that when you are 'in' an exponential asset, it is difficult to sell thinking that you'll buy back. Most likely, you won't be able to, unless, buy-sell is your "granular" DCA strategy that @philipma1957 and @JJG are espousing.

For me, it seems that it is never (or almost never) a good time to sell btc...I tried a couple of times with a non-insignificant sells and was never able to buy those coins back. Lesson learned.

I really doubt that Phil is following such DCA strategy that involves never selling his BTC. Phil cannot resist selling portions of his BTC from time to time, which also means that during those periods that he is selling, he is not buying because he is too busy waiting to be able to buy back cheaper. I would not call that a DCA strategy in the sense that you are mentioning since there are sales of BTC with expectations to buy back cheaper.

Quote from: Bluedrem on July 26, 2025, 07:41:03 PM

When I look at my bank balance 🏛️ I'm poor 🥴😥 Because it says: $800

When I look at my crypto balance 📈 wow im so rich 🤑 because I own "****" BTC

Crypto .. holy shit!!!

Might have to poor one out for you if you own crypto.

Quote from: Biodom on July 26, 2025, 07:58:55 PM

Regarding that 80K btc ($9.4 bil) guy/gal (most likely guy) sell...
Remember, he/she/they bought at $0.675/btc in 2011.

Two years (or about) later, btc went to $1176, which is a 1742X return in just two years (174222% exactly).
The will power that was needed not to sell back then...big respect.

Later on, fluctuations were less violent, so I can see how this (hodl) developed.

You are trying to make sense out of selling 80k bitcoin all at once right now? You make no sense.

With your numbers, the guy paid right around $54k for his 80k bitcoins.

In 2013, he could have had sold 10k BTC at $600 each - which would have had been $6 million, and he would have still had 70k bitcoin worth around $42 million.

In 2017, he could have had sold 10k BTC at $12k each, and he would have had gotten $120 million and he would still had 50k bitcoin remaining worth around $600 million

In 2021, he could have had sold 10k BTC at $52k each, and he would have had gotten $520 million and he would still had 40k bitcoin remaining worth around $2.8 billion

In 2025 (right now), he could have had sold 10k BTC at $115k each, and he would have had gotten $1.15 billion and he would still had 30k bitcoin remaining worth around $3.45 billion

I see no reason to sell them all at once, and surely there is not even any need to do exactly what i am suggesting in order to have had still profitted stupendously but still have been holding billions of dollars worth of bitcoin without selling all of it.

Quote from: Biodom on July 26, 2025, 07:58:55 PM

Quote from: Bluedrem on July 26, 2025, 07:41:03 PM

When I look at my bank balance 🏛️ I'm poor 🥴😥 Because it says: $800

When I look at my crypto balance 📈 wow im so rich 🤑 because I own "****" BTC

sure, if you own four digits worth of bitcoin, you ARE rich, lol

Gosh.. that is confusing because if we happen to be talking about dee actual cornz, then we have 8 digits, too.

Quote from: nutildah on Today at 03:02:05 AM

JJG, you lower the quality of all threads you participate in with the unspoken promise of easy merits for asskiss posts.

That is your characterization of the situation, and you are entitled to your opinion..

Even though you are most likely:

wwwwwwrrrrroooooooonnnnngggggg.

You are concluding that you are able to remove my smerit sending behaviors from my own other kinds of participation and to suggest that I am going to participate in the same ways if we just change the smerit sending part?

You believe that only one element of my behavior can be changed so that then supposedly, in your fantasy world the quality of the threads (that I participate in - presumptively all of them) would improve.

The supposed problem, to the extent it exists, goes much the smerit sending behavior of one forum member, namely yours truly...

So fuck off with your ongoing smerit micromanaging attempts as if you have some kind of divine wisdom regarding how to balance smerit sending and the various kinds of forum participations, including human behavior that you have under your abilities to perceive the cost/benefit tradeoffs of the merit system and how forum members are sending their smerits.

Have you ever thought about nominating yourself as forum smerit sending oversight Czar?

Sure you have thought about it.. and wouldn't that be a great addition to the forum's overall participatory and quality of posts dynamics? Go figure.

Quote from: nutildah on Today at 03:02:05 AM

It is weird that you require constant validation from strangers, but you're right, I can't change that.

It is weird that you happen to be amongst the greatest, if not the greatest, of wannabe interwebinal arm-chair psychologists that never did exist.

Quote from: nutildah on Today at 03:02:05 AM

And I have as much right to point it out as you do to encourage an intellectually crippled beggar culture on the forum.

You go girl, with your self-identification of rights.

I just realized that I am the reason that we cannot have nice things around these here parts.. according to Uncle Nutildah, the smerit Czar wannabe, dweeb. Cry

Quote from: Cipherpz on Today at 03:08:20 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:26:53 AM

Of course, I frequently talk about not starting to withdraw until reaching overaccumulation status, yet there could also be situations in which a guy might have had been accumulating bitcoin for 1 or 2 cycles and he is forced into withdrawing from his BTC because he lost his income and/or his expenses went up in such a way that he no longer has enough discretionary income to buy bitcoin. so either he just pauses his bitcoin buying and merely just HODLs for a period of time, or he might still start to employ sustainable withdrawal and perhaps make some downward adjustments to his earlier ideas of how much income he was going to need to withdraw from his bitcoin, so maybe drawing from his bitcoin either supports him at a lower level of income or his bitcoin merely supplements some other sources of income that he has...

Surely guys can still benefit quite a lot from getting into bitcoin and building up their bitcoin holdings even if they do not end up reaching overaccumulation status... especially guys who had largely been focusing on ongoing accumulation of bitcoin for 1-2 cycles or more and without selling any of their bitcoin during that time... Even if they have not reached overaccumulation status their having had built up their bitcoin stash can still be quite helpful to them and likely would have had improved their lives in term of their having had gotten into bitcoin as compared with another alternative universe in which they had not gotten into bitcoin.

HODLing is not only about patience, but also about the ability to prepare for future security in the face of financial uncertainty.
This is perhaps the most realistic and secure future for Bitcoin.

I am not exactly clear about your meaning, even though many folks who have been in bitcoin for a while are able to see bitcoin having an ongoingly upward price trajectory, even if we account for quite a bit of volatility and sometimes seemingly great price drawdowns.

Yet the future is not guaranteed to continue to go up and to the right in terms of the BTC price charts.

So, we still need to figure out our strategy in accumulating bitcoin, since we are not going to start out with a stash of it, and whether we are poor or rich, it can take a bit of time to establish our bitcoin position... . and sure, in some sense, many of us might see a lot of problems within various traditional asset systems, so even if we might not know for sure if bitcoin is a savior from the various messes of traditional asset systems, bitcoin can still serve as a hedge, so in that sense, there are likely a lot of guys who are able to get hope through bitcoin, where they might not have had seen hope in regards to how much mess and shenanigans seem to be happening in various aspects of traditional assets and debt systems.

Quote from: Cipherpz on Today at 03:08:20 AM

Withdrawing Bitcoin during times of daily financial stress or danger is not a failure, but can be a benefit of earlier prudent decisions. If you hold Bitcoin as part of your long-term investment savings, and you find yourself in a situation where your income decreases or your expenses increase, then it will also make sense to withdraw some of that savings because it is a form of utility for that savings.

If you are early in your bitcoin investment journey then you likely would want to make sure that you have cash backup systems to cover your various cashflows in the event of discretionary income falling, yet if you have been investing in bitcoin for a decent amount of time, then you have had chances to build up back up systems and your bitcoin investment so that you may not be wanting to have your bitcoin investment serving as your back up funds or emergency funds.. so part of the reason to create those back up cash systems would be so that you can stay committed to investing into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer and then at some point hopefully reaching overaccumulation status (meaning that you have enough or more than enough bitcoin).

Quote from: nutildah on Today at 03:32:10 AM

Quote from: Cipherpz on Today at 03:08:20 AM

Case in point.

You are doing such a good job nutildah. I am sure that theymos has you on the short-list for smerit czar, and you are going to be able to really crack down once your official powers start to kick in.