Quote from: bbc.reporter on Today at 03:16:40 AM

It appears there are still people who have not understood what is the definition of a market bubble and also arguing that because bitcoin has reached some acceptance from the government and from traditional finance then it will not die. I am sorry, however, on a very long time horizon our society including bitcoin might not exist and it might be studied as another bubble, the other definition, similar to the South Sea bubble on 1720.

It is very headshaking that humans are very arrogant and have forgotten the realities of life. In any case, the definition of bubble I am using is a market bubble only where they form on bull markers causing prices to be unsustainable. But according to this article it might not occur this year.

Bitcoin price has long followed a familiar rhythm: every four years, a halving slashes the new supply of coins, setting off a bull run. Then, when the price gets too frothy and sentiment a pinch too euphoric, traders take profit and the price nosedives into a bear market.

That playbook is now dead, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise.

“The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker,” Hougan said on X on Friday. “The halving is half as important every four years, the interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, and blow-up risk has attenuated.”

For Hougan, the structural forces behind Bitcoin’s classic boom-and-bust cycles — like the halving’s impact on supply — are weakening. Meanwhile, a new macro and regulatory environment is working in Bitcoin’s favour.

Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/experts-explain-how-bitcoin-price-cycle-is-changing/

language matters

it will retreat a lot from the peak

I 100% believe that.

My definition is when a bubble burst it is done kaput and over with.

You are saying a bursting bubble is the down point in the 4 year cycle

btw so far if you go out ten years it is ever upward

so using a 10 year viewpoint their is no 4 year cycle.

below from my other posting in a different section

Quote

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5551668.msg65628133#msg65628133

<snip>

the 10 year prediction model has been up up up

do not count 2009

Using July 1 numbers for each year

2010 to 2020 up 8 cents to $ 29,200
2011 to 2021 up $13.50 to $33,572
2012 to 2022 up 7.50 to $19,000
2013 to 2023 up $ 100 to $30,000

2014 to 2024 up $ 634 to $62,857 100x is the lowest gain

2015 to 2025 up $ 258 to $105,657

a ten year hodl prediction of any time from July 1 2010 was easy

huge gain.

I start with July 1 2010 as I have clear prices to Start from

but any day from block 2 a 10 year hodl means huge gain

and frankly this may remain true forever unless of course someone finds a way to crack sha-256

"every 10 year viewpoint the gains are huge."

so based on a 10 year viewpoint BTC has always been in a bull market

find me any day since day one that ten years later BTC has not whaled or bulled