[edited out]
You're right that it can be very very challenging to attempt timing the market and trying to outsmart the cycles. I know a lot of folks who actually think they can buy low and hold during the highs, but this approach is even more difficult than it sounds and can be pretty tough to execute perfectly. A more reliable way to accumulate a sizable amount of Bitcoin remains to prioritize and engaging in consistently accumulating Bitcoin over a whole cycle or even more.
When we are in the midst of building our bitcoin holdings it can be difficult to know if we are doing the right thing or not, and you can imagine that poor people are likely not used to accumulating so much wealth, and so they might already start to conclude that they have enough or more than enough bitcoin and they have not even hardly accumulated 25% of their annual income into bicoin, yet it still seems like a lot of money for them to have so much in one place, and they are not used to having had accumulated so much wealth in their whole life, and it is ONLY 25% of their annual income, and maybe it took them 2 or 3 years to get to that level and they feel really rich.. even though it would likely be better for them to keep accumulating until they have invested a whole year or more in to bitcoin.. .and no I cannot really determine for someone else how much is enough or more than enough.
I do know that my standards are different right now as compared to what they had been in 2014 and 2015 when I was starting to come to the conclusion that I had accumulated enough or more than enough bitcoin.
The idea of reaching a state of overaccumulation can be quite interesting. It's not just about stacking up a particular amount or number if Bitcoin somewhere, but also more about having that feeling that you're financially secure and also have a good amount of confidence in your investment strategy. For most investors, it's a long term process that requires a lot discipline, patience and of course resilience.
When we are coming to such a conclusion about over accumulation status then we have to likely consider all of
our personal factors.. and surely each of them are important in regards to figuring out how we might move from accumulation status to maintenance status and then to some kind of a sustainable withdrawal status, and I doubt that it makes sense to move straight from one to another without some customization... even though there are some people who seem to accumulate bitcoin for many years and then just sell it all. .which seems to be an example of selling too much too soon, since there don't seem to be many cases that it would be justified to complete get out of bitcoin, even if there might be some justification to start to sell some of the BTC.
About deciding to front load one's investment, yeah, to an extent it can certainly give folks a pretty great head start, but this doesn't in anyways guarantee that they'll reach financial independence or reach a fuck you status. Even with a sizable chunk of Bitcoin, it's still important to prioritize consistent buying and an effective financial management in order to achieve one's long term management goals.
I agree with you since if we start to talk about people who have enough money to invest a year or two of their expenses into bitcoin (which would be a pretty strong start), there does seem to be some value to continue to periodicalloy buy more bitcion through a whole cycle, yet there are some folks who prefer to engage in lump sum buying and even maybe combining that with buying on the dip, if they are able to.. It is not really a good recommended strategy, yet if someone were to front load with one or two years of their expenses into bitcoin right from the start, then they might feel that they ONLY want to add more to their bitcoin if the price either dips after they had already bought or if it were to dip at some later point, even if it does not dip below their original purchase price.
I do think that there is some value to consistently buying for 4 years and then perhaps starting to have average bitcoin buy prices that are starting to go below the 200-WMA.. There is some good feeling to be able to achieve that with ongoing bitcoin accumulation and even getting through a whole bitcoin cycle.
One very unique perspective about this whole process is that it's not really about how much amount of Bitcoin you've managed to stack up, but mostly about the financial habit and discipline you've managed to develop along the way as you accumulate. Through consistent investing and learning, you'll be able to build quite a solid foundation for financial stability, security and success, irrespective of the temporary fluctuations of the market.
Like you suggest, it is probably a good thing for a guy to learn about bitcoin as he invests into it and then to build his bitcoin position through various purchases, whether they were front loaded in the beginning or even if they might have had been DCA's for a whole cycle or more... Yet it is still difficult to prescribe what another person should do, since they should be working towards investing in accordance with
their own personal factors. [edited out]
A Gold investment is another hedge against inflation, but with lower volatility. I believe that's relevant especially today that Central Banks have been the largest buyers, accumulating since 2020.
Personally, I have a small investment, which I may add more if the price DIPs.
Fuck gold... and yeah of course, you can do whatever thing you want, even dumb shit.
[edited out]
I may feel that I have enough Bitcoin, but I know that keeping my savings in cash would bear an opportunity cost + inflation risk.
I am not sure if that makes sense. Either you have enough bitcoin or you don't. Of course, if you are still earning an income and you have extra income you have to figure out where to put such income and if you are not spending it all, then sure you could buy more bitcoin with it or buy other stuff, yet if you have reached a status of having enough bitcoin then there is no need to buy more. it is kind of optional. .and I am pretty sure that there were times that I was buying more bitcoin because there was ONLY so much cash that I was willing to keep.. but that could also be relative to your bitcoin stash, so if you were to have several times your income in bitcoin, then sometimes it might be optional whether to put more into bitcoin, yet if you were to have 20 to 30 years or more of your income in bitcoin, then it might be even less necessary to put more income into bitcoin..... and of course, it makes a difference if you are valuating your bitcoin in regards to how much you put in or perhaps according to the 200-WMA valuation or alternatively in accordance with the BTC spot price, and of course the spot price is moving around a lot more than the 200-WMA.. which I tend to like the 200-WMA since it does not move around so much.. .even though if I were to buy or sell any bitcoin I am having to do it at current BTC spot prices.
I don't know how gold is relevant.. except someone who is lost in regards to the value of bitcoin, and surely at most, you might hold up to 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment int gold and even 10% is probably too much.
A Gold investment is another hedge against inflation, but with lower volatility. I believe that's relevant
especially today that Central Banks have been the largest buyers, accumulating since 2020.Personally, I have a small investment, which I may add more if the price DIPs.
surely gold is another hedge against inflation with low volatility but may not come close to bitcoin in advantage. for me i dont see any reason of taken gold as a consideration when we have the digital gold that is more important, many guys are even selling gold to buy bitcoin knowing the potential of bitcoin in the long run. well its your decision to buy some portion of gold and i cant question you. the only thing is that it is better than saving in fiat especially if you want to diversify.
even if central bank buy gold does not make it as important as bitcoin. central bank are just afraid of bitcoin high volatility and also because bitcoin is a decentralized currency that the price can not be manipulated that's why they go for a more stable or less volatile asset like gold. the profit made buy bank by investing on gold since 2020 can not come close to the profit made by MicroStrategy that buys bitcoin all the time, and other large organization.
Persons, institutions, governments and/or banks holding gold for the past 16 years have been getting their lunches eaten by bitcoin and they are likely to continue to get their lunches eaten by bitcoin.. so they an stick with the inferior asset (namely gold) or transition into bitcoin, including hopefully not holding any more than 10% of the value of their bitcoin in gold, and perhaps even 10% is too much... but yeah, they can do what they like, even dumb shit.