Quote from: ivomm on Today at 09:24:08 AM

It's been almost 10 years since I started entering the world of Bitcoin and at no point have I learned to predict what will happen to the price within a few days. I don't even try anymore. But despite this, I have gained a sense from experience and can say within a given year what the behavior of Bitcoin will be, based mainly on the 4-year cycles. But any of the OG can do all this, I don't want to brag about it.

Since your forum registration is September 2016, I would surmise that you must have had gotten into bitcoin around a year-ish prior to your forum registration. My getting started in bitcoin only predates my forum registration by just 3-ish months.

Regarding short-to-medium BTC price direction predictions. Hm? It seems that the longer that we are in bitcoin, then the more we might get senses for BTC price directions, even based on having a sense that there are blow off tops and then extremes in the downward direction that kind of comes as a response, yet even proclaiming to have any real sense likely played out as our having kind of base case views of where the BTC price might go, yet we also know that even our strongest conviction about some short-term price target may well have decent odds of not playing out.

Another thing is that if we attempt to realistically go through our level of conviction and we get into details and we assign a number to all of the possible outcomes that we see that add up to 100%, then we might find that our base case only has like 30% to 40%, so many times the best that we can really get is being directionally correct rather than correct about any specifics, even when the price ends up hitting close to exactly some price level that we had been anticipating to be the top or bottom of that particular price wave.

Surely some of us might try to trade on some of our hunches too, so then our trade numbers might well reflecting our level of being correct (or maybe lucky?).

It seems quite likely that we are all not equal either, since there are some guys who get obsessed with certain numbers and maybe overly assign high probabilities to certain scenarios which also might be part of the reason that when we are speaking with real world no coiners (or low coiners) part of the reason that they don't act is because their conviction is not high enough in favor of bitcoin, and they might even have some anti-bitcoin conviction, yet another thing they might be hesitant and/or scared to act, even if they have some conviction in one direction or another. There can be a cost to action and/or inaction that is not completely measured out since sometimes normie no coiners and/or low coiners may well have all kinds of other non-bitcoin priorities that are even keeping them from dedicating any time to fitting bitcoin into their thoughts - even if they might have had given it some preliminary thoughts... not like some of the bitcoiners who might end up overly obsessed about bitcoin and even appear to have lack of focus and/or lack of priorities in other non-bitcoin topics, and our brain can only reasonably focus on a certain narrow number of topics at any given time.

Quote from: ivomm on Today at 09:24:08 AM

The curious thing is that at first, when my friends learned about my investment, they were surprised that I had taken such an "unreasonable" risk, because they know me as a very serious person of science who does not trust any company and does not invest in anything. Over time, they asked me more and more and were surprised that I knew what would happen. Today they look at me like I'm some kind of God, they treat me with such respect and trust in my advice. They often tell me: "I still can't understand when Bitcoin was a few thousand dollars, you were so convinced that it would go over 100,000 within 7-8 years and not only that, but that it would also be approved by the US government and be traded on the stock exchange? How did you know all this?

I sometimes get people telling me similar things and even suggesting that I knew more than I knew, since many times, I will proclaim that I did not really know, even though I had a variety of upside scenarios in view and many times even though the BTC price was going up and up and up, and non-convicted folks would end up selling way too much bitcoin too soon, for some of us, bitcoin does not seem like a thing that we sell, even if there may well be some various local tops that would seem like good places to sell for those who really have not considered greater implications around bitcoin as scarce asset.

Quote from: ivomm on Today at 09:24:08 AM

I didn't believe it would go to 10,000, and now things are going towards 200,000 and above. You deserve to reap the fruits of your wisdom and character, I'm happy for you! It's a shame that I won very little compared to you, but I thank you for your advice, because this is also of great importance for my life. I had friends who, unlike you, started with shitcoins and lost a lot of money. They did stupid things after stupid things, it's good that you told me to stay away from them."

Yes.. and many of these folks are still failing/refusing to act and also considering it too late to get started in bitcoin, since from their mind, the run had already happened... and if we have had longer term relationships that we might have had been telling about bitcoin since $400 in 2014 and then $600 in 2016 and then $2,000 in 2017 and then $7k-ish in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and $25k in 2023, and we likely continue to tell them similar things at various price points which signify that it is time to get started as soon as possible no matter the price, especially if they don't have any bitcoin.. and the ONLY way to prepare for up is to make sure to have some bitcoin... . yet they continue to take steps to get in, since no one wants to end up buying at the top.. and maybe they even have difficulties committing to 4-10 years or more investing timeline.. which is also part of what I have been telling any of the no coiners (or do we refer to them as pre-coiners?) for years and years.

Quote from: ivomm on Today at 09:24:08 AM

I notice that the media and people have started to change their attitude towards Bitcoin, and the mocking "this bubble is going to pop up at any moment" has almost disappeared. No matter how ignorant most people are, I am increasingly seeing statements like "modern digital gold". This is enough to change the thinking of most people, except for the most ignorant, who will always be there. So the mass adoption is underway but still far from its peak.

Likely the narrative of the media helps, yet surely we still don't see too many normies (or retail) really stepping up and making sure that they have some corn and some preparations for up. It seems that many normies do not perceive any urgency when it comes to making sure that they get off zero and make sure that they have some kind of a bitcoin stake.. It can be difficult to get started in buying an asset when such asset perceived to have had gone up so much in recent times, even if the best thing for them to do in order to get prepared for up is to actually buy some rather than wait for dips that might or might not end up happening.

Quote from: vapourminer on Today at 11:01:19 AM

Quote from: fillippone on Today at 10:55:50 AM

We are not ready for what is coming next.

speak for yerself lol

Dangers of the "royal we." Cheesy

even though surely many of us likely realize that if the BTC price goes shooting up, even if we feel that we are kind of ready financially and psychologically, it can be quite difficult to go through the experience.. and getting a sense of being lost and "not knowing what to do." I have felt it quite a few times in bitcoin both with the UPs and also with the DOWNs. I spent so much time considering various great upside scenarios and such great downside scenarios, yet when they are happening, I am still considering whether there might be some need to change something in regards to what I am doing based on the way things ended up happening even more spectacular than I had imagined or perhaps even if what was happening seemed to be within the framework of something that I thought "could happen."

There have been times that I tweaked what I did as compared to what I thought that I was going to do under such a scenario, and subsequently I felt good about the tweak, and there have been other times in which I tweaked and subsequently, I regretted my tweak.

By the way, sometimes participation in a forum like this will help to inspire thinking through a potential tweak and then even provide some guidance regarding to the extent of such a tweak if it were to happen.. .so even if everyone seems to be panicking, that can provide guidance, which might not be the correct guidance, even though guidance had been provided.