Quote from: kanftka on Today at 06:13:12 AM

Quote from: adultcrypto on August 01, 2025, 04:19:09 PM

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Yu kw, if you have $10k in pure discretionary income and no pressure elsewhere, going in heavy during a dip might not be a bad move.. But here is the thing, that approach assumes this dip is the bottom, and no one really knows that.

This is why i would say DCA is still the best approach over all. It removes the guesswork. You don’t even have to stress about whether now is the perfect time. You just stay consistent, and over time, your average cost balances out. That kind of peace of mind is underrated...

You have an extra $10k that you can invest into bitcoin, and you are a newbie, and you are suggesting that you DCA the $10k that you currently have?

What is the exact hypothetical?

Let's say that the person is brand new to bitcoin, and maybe he is in his late 20s, and he has an income that is around $30k per year, and he had been investing for the past few years in non-bitcoin investments.. maybe he has $10k in his various investments, but then he also has an additional $10k for some reason that he came across. Maybe he had been investing into bitcoin already for around 6 months, since the beginning of 2025 at $100 per week, and he plans to continue to invest $100 per week into bitcoin into the future.

So then what is he going to do with the extra $10k that he has? There are three categories. Invest right away, DCA and buy on dips. It seems logical that he at least considers all three categories, even if he has preferences in regards to one or another, yet $10k is divisible so he does not have to put all of it into one category, even while at the same time there is no requirement that he has to use all three categories - even though there seems to be some logic in terms of using all three categories.

If the guy looks at his current bitcoin holdings, he had invested right around $3,100 into bitcoin since the beginning of the year, so he had accumulated right around 0.032 BTC.. and so the fact that he already has a plan and a practice of accumulating bitcoin at aroudn $100 per week, that amount seems to be working for his current income situation.

Of course, another thing that he could do is to shore up some of his emergency funds and his reserve funds, if he might feel that they are not up to his comfort level, and if we might estimate that his monthly expenses are somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,700, then if he wants to have at least 3 months in his emergency funds, that would be right around $5,100 for his emergency funds..

Quote from: kanftka on Today at 06:13:12 AM

yu kw, you don’t have to pick one side. but would advise you consider DCA, bcus If I were in your shoes with $10k right now, I wound probably put in like around $3k–$5k if I feel the market is offering a solid discount, but i would still hold back some to DCA over the next few months. With that, if the price drops more, I will not be stuck watching from the sidelines.

In my supplement of the hypothetical the guy is already employing DCA, and he is not adjusting the DCA based on perceptions if the BTC price is high or low, but instead he is investing based on his being new to bitcoin and his wanting to build up a bitcoin stash for the next 4 years or more. Holding back on DCA seems problematic, and waiting to buy dips seems problematic. He has all three categories in regards to the $10k, and if you are suggesting to put $3k to $5k right now, and then wait with the remainder.. but then to stop with his DCA.. that surely seems problematic... which you seem to be betting more on down, even though you are not giving any evidence to show that you are actually sufficiently/adequately prepared for up.. and from my consideration, if you are not sufficiently/adequately prepared for up, then you likely have to keep buying in some kind of way, even if you hold back some of the value for buying dips... and of course, there is no one right answer, even though surely you can hardly say that you are continuing to invest in bitcoin if you stop or lighten up on your DCA merely because you had used $3k to $5k (which is only 30-50%) of the extra funds (the $10k) to buy bitcoin right away.

Quote from: kanftka on Today at 06:13:12 AM

So no, DCA is not just for people with little money, it is for anyone who wants to avoid emotional mistakes. Whether investing $100 or $10,000, having a plan that lets you stay calm matters more than anything.

Fair enough... even though you seem to be suggesting contradictroy actions that involve continuing DCA (at what level?) and cutting down on DCA at the same time... So maybe you can clarify what you mean in regards to presuming that you are going to be able to buy more at lower prices, which there is really no way to know if the BTC price will go lower, even if some of us still might purposefully choose to hold back some value to be able to buy some level of dips or maybe if we are largely doing BTC accumulation on a weekly basis, then we will consider that whatever dip might happen, then if we are buying every week, then we are still likely to catch some portion of any dip that might happen through our weekly buys and there might not even be any great justification to hold back any extra value for buying more on the dip when we are already buying bitcoin every week no matter the price... and surely even within the weekly buys, we might try to see if we can identify some dip prices within each of our weekly buys.. to the extent feasible.

Quote from: Tonimez on Today at 06:33:31 AM

It would be more acceptable if you encourage aggressive buys during the supposed dip. This aggressive buys would be good if someone has a spare money possibly set out for such opportunities or if the person eventually has an extra income. Whichever way, it is good to understand that dips can happen anytime.

You were saying to just keep buying DCA and don't get focused on the price, and then you start to proclaim some kind of benefit in regards to buying more aggressively on dips.

I am not opposed to holding back some value for buying extra on dips, yet there are trade offs with that strategy, and I doubt that it is helpful to change our level of aggressiveness based on BTC price changes, rather than changing our level of aggressiveness based on how solid our cashflow management is..

In other words, we should be able to set up systems that allow for some holding back of value for buying on potential dips, yet the more that we strategize the dips, the more likely we would be employing waiting strategies rather than buying strategies, which I have difficulties considering waiting strategies to capture the idea of what it means to be attempting to be accumulating bitcoin aggressively.

There is ONLY so much that we can do, and if we get so preoccupied about certain level of dips, that no longer seems like investing or even a reasonably measured way to attempt to employ aggressiveness in our bitcoin accumulation practices.

I am not even claiming the answers are easy or that there is any one correct answer since many of us likely prefer to accumulate as much bitcoin as we can, yet we cannot necessarily presume that the BTC price will drop from whatever price location that we are in.

Quote from: Tonimez on Today at 06:33:31 AM

Quote from: Oshio-man on Today at 04:04:48 AM

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Your tone of enthusiasm about buying at $115k was that of a FOMO investor and just in less than 8 hours we're at $114k. This is the reason why you should learn to manage your anxiety in bitcoin investment, follow your DCA strictly and only trying aggressive buys when you are sure you have additional money or lesser responsibility. Dips will always occur and your DCA period can always land on dips sometimes.

This all makes sense. We are not likely going to catch any exact dip, even if we are buying weekly, even though we might buy around such dip, and in the whole scheme of things, it may not really matter very much if we were able to buy our extra $100 of the week at $113k or at $116k, even if we would have had preferred to buy that one at $113k rather than $116k, yet if we have 5-10 years of BTC accumulating, we might have had more than 250 purchases over 5 years and more than 500 purchases over 10 years, and sure there might have had been times that we could have had gotten more bitcoin for our money, yet over the 10 years, we likely never knew with any level of confidence whether the BTC price would be going up, down or sideways, especially within short-to-medium time frames..

Quote from: Tonimez on Today at 06:33:31 AM

Quote from: Oshio-man on Today at 04:04:48 AM

but never you be in a competition with anybody in bitcoin investment because your financial status is different from other investors, invest what you can afford to lose in bitcoin investment which is my advice to newbies.

You're very correct when you said an investor is not to be in competition with anyone due to difference in financial stabilities. Some people end up measuring their success with others which is not right because even if you earn same amount with someone, it's not a guarantee that you have same pace of progress because responsibilities differ and your colleague might have a different income source without telling you.

Quite a few things within the personal factors could have subtle differences even if there may appear to be similarities.

Quote from: Tonimez on Today at 06:33:31 AM

However, saying that an investor should invest only what he can afford to loose in bitcoin sounds like a trader's advice.

Suggesting that investors to invest only what they can afford to lose is standard advice that applies to both investing and to trading, since there is no guarantee in either investing or trading, even if we might consider that trading brings higher levels of risk than investing due to the practice of getting in and out of positions more frequently with expectations that there are abilities to time markets and to profit from such timing which might work 9/10ths of the time, and then cause the loss of all profits on the 1/10 of times that it does not work within anticipated parameters.

Quote from: Tonimez on Today at 06:33:31 AM

When someone's target is a long term holding up to 4 to 10 years time or more, the chances of loosing assets are nearly erased as he stands greater chances of making good profit.

That is not true. A longer time frame allows for time to play out, and so more things can end up happening over time - even though longer time frames does tend to lessen the impact of short-term volatility, especially if the asset (such as bitcoin) ends up having sufficiently strong fundamentals in order to trend upwards in price into the future as it had been trending upwards in the past. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so we are largely engaging in an asymmetric bet that involves the most that we can lose is 100% of what we put into bitcoin as long as we don't engage in leveraging, then we are limited to losing 100%, yet at the same time, there continue to be decently good odds that are bitcoin returns will equal or exceed other places that we could have had been putting such value during that time.

Quote from: _BlackStar on Today at 06:01:51 PM

Quote from: Ricardo11 on Today at 05:38:00 PM

Quote from: Umulala-alala on Today at 04:44:55 PM

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I agree with you that this can be a very good option, people delay starting their investment by learning about Bitcoin before they start investing, which is of course unnecessary, and as a result they miss out on good opportunities to start their investment. There is no need to have complete knowledge about Bitcoin when starting your investment, you keep your investment consistent and gain knowledge about Bitcoin while investing, in that case your investment is not being delayed and you are able to accumulate Bitcoin holdings at an average price as a result of continuous investment and at the same time you are able to learn about Bitcoin, which is of course very positive. Over time, as you learn to understand Bitcoin, as with that also your holdings will continue building at an average price.

You can still delay becoming a trader if you don't understand how the market works and what strategies can make you profitable - but not with investing. You don't need to delay investing any longer if you've learned the basics - but if you're still too new to the concept, then don't invest in any assets you don't understand.

Regardless, everyone should at least know what Bitcoin is and learn the basics before investing. You shouldn't invest simply because you're jealous of someone else who's already achieved returns - while you don't know what Bitcoin is. So, in short, basic knowledge is essential for any prospective investor.

I would hate for anyone to be delayed in getting started with bitcoin based on some abstract need that they have a certain knowledge level in order to get started investing in bitcoin. Surely anyone getting started in bitcoin might not even need to commit to investing or to 4-10 years or longer, in order to get started, they may well merely start out with $10 and not really know what they fuck they are doing and/or what the fuck they are intending in regards to bitcoin, except they are intending to get started and to learn as they go.

In other words, there is some logic in getting started and even even starting out more conservatively in such a way that position size can make up for knowledge.. at least in the beginning, and as they learn more, they can increase their position size whether it is weekly through DCA or if they might at some point consider lump sum buying I would imagine that the more aggressive that they choose to become, then their increasing their level of aggressiveness would be based on their increasing their knowledge, their comfort levels and/or making sure that they have sufficient and adequate cashflow management systems and practices in place that may well include various sufficiently adequate back up funds.

It might be dangerous to suggest some level of knowledge that is needed in regards to bitcoin before starting with bitcoin, even though surely I would consider that there is a need to have some knowledge ikn regards to whether a person has discretionary funds or not, and if a person is not mistaken about his having discretionary funds, then he is able to at least get started.. but yeah, he may need to learn more if he continues to buy bitcoin over an extended period of time, even though for each purchase, the most basic knowledge is whether he has discretionary funds or not, even though at some point he may well need to learn more about what he is investing into in order to make sure that he is investing rather than trading and that he might consider that an investment in bitcoin may well need to have a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, in order to be serving as an investment rather than a trade or a gamble.