Quote from: Biodom on August 03, 2025, 03:12:01 AM

It would be interesting to compare "retiring on bitcoin' numbers in the vid below with @JJG projections.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq_TD6KqNq0
In the vid: if you want to retire in 2025, it basically does not matter as age 25-65 has a narrow range of 10.13-10.71 btc needed to retire this year (at $100K/year) as bitcoin appreciation "bails" you out.
Of note: if you are 35 and want to retire in 2050 (at 60 y.o), you need to get to "just" 0.79 btc; if you are 45 and want to retire in 2040, you'll need 1.41btc (all at $100K spend/year).
If you want to spend 200K/year and retire right now, you'll need about 20 btc, current age almost does not matter.
Interesting.

EDIT: 7% inflation adjusted.

We end up with fairly similar numbers, but mine are more conservative since I am working from the bottom prices (the 200-WMA) and he is working from the trend line, which I take is somewhere in the middle between bottom and top, which he proclaims to be working with the idea of Powerlaw. I also attempt to retain the idea of diminishing 4-year cycles in my projections, and he seems to downplay 4-year cycles even more by just proclaiming the UPpity to be a trend line that is not exactly a straight line since its slope is gradually diminishing with the passage of time, which still the overall trajectory of each of us is not very different. Both of us are using 7% as our cost of living (debasement of the dollar) projection.

If we start with just the what do you need right now for $100k per year or $200k per year, my numbers show 19.656 BTC for $100k and of course, we would just double that number if we are needing $200k right now, which would be 39.312 BTC.

My future projection for $100k in 2040 or $100k 2050 would be 0.85 BTC and 0.28 BTC respectively.. My future projections are based on my fuck you status chart projections, though I have an updated chart that I have not published... but it looks like this: (See below post for AlcoHoDL's more user-friendly rendition - I was not able to figure out how to add that chart in this post without experiencing an error)

Date   SpotPrice   200 WMA   %gain/time   Spotvs200   gain/time   Coins/10%FU Status   Coins/4%FU Status   Filty-Rich^**
5/30/40   $1,539,268   $1,184,052   8.00%   0.00%   $87,708   0.67564597   1.68911493   84.45575
11/29/40   $1,664,872   $1,280,671   8.16%   102.00%   $96,619   0.62467268   1.56168170   78.08409
5/30/41   $1,803,443   $1,387,263   8.32%   102.00%   $106,593   0.57667488   1.44168720   72.08436
11/29/41   $1,956,549   $1,505,037   8.49%   102.00%   $117,774   0.53154822   1.32887055   66.44353
5/30/42   $2,054,376   $1,580,289   5.00%   0.00%   $75,252   0.50623640   1.26559100   63.27955
11/29/42   $2,151,959   $1,655,353   4.75%   95.00%   $75,064   0.48328057   1.20820143   60.41007
5/31/43   $2,249,066   $1,730,051   4.51%   95.00%   $74,698   0.46241414   1.15603534   57.80176690
11/29/43   $2,345,481   $1,804,216   4.29%   95.00%   $74,165   0.44340588   1.10851470   55.42573493
5/30/44   $2,509,665   $1,930,511   7.00%   0.00%   $126,295   0.41439802   1.03599505   51.79975227
11/28/44   $2,688,855   $2,068,350   7.14%   102.00%   $137,838   0.38678180   0.96695449   48.34772472
5/30/45   $2,884,678   $2,218,983   7.28%   102.00%   $150,634   0.36052545   0.90131363   45.06568129
11/29/45   $3,098,966   $2,383,820   7.43%   102.00%   $164,836   0.33559586   0.83898965   41.94948244
5/30/46   $3,222,924   $2,479,172   4.00%   0.00%   $95,353   0.32268833   0.80672082   40.33604081
11/29/46   $3,345,395   $2,573,381   3.80%   95.00%   $94,209   0.31087507   0.77718768   38.85938421
5/30/47   $3,466,164   $2,666,280   3.61%   95.00%   $92,899   0.30004350   0.75010876   37.50543790
11/29/47   $3,585,036   $2,757,720   3.43%   95.00%   $91,440   0.29009471   0.72523676   36.26183816
5/30/48   $3,800,138   $2,923,183   6.00%   0.00%   $165,463   0.27367425   0.68418563   34.20928128
11/28/48   $4,032,707   $3,102,082   6.12%   102.00%   $178,899   0.25789130   0.64472826   32.23641282
5/30/49   $4,284,444   $3,295,727   6.24%   102.00%   $193,644   0.24273859   0.60684647   30.34232361
11/28/49   $4,557,246   $3,505,574   6.37%   102.00%   $209,847   0.22820802   0.57052005   28.52600230
5/30/50   $4,693,963   $3,610,741   3.00%   0.00%   $105,167   0.22156118   0.55390296   27.69514786

**10% FU status is $800k, 4% FU status is $2 million and Filthy Rich is $100million. In this chart, BTC spot price is calculated as being 30% higher than the 200-WMA (presumed bottom price)

I don't know how important it is to get such long future projections correct with precision, even though it is probably good to be somewhat correct with the present projections in terms of how much income is needed to pull the fuck you lever and then being able to live off of the level of expected income and not pulling the fuck you lever too soon or overly depleting the bitcoin stash based on getting the numbers wrong.

So for example right now if a guy were to need $100k per year, and if he is barely at the threshold level of 19.656 BTC with the size of his BTC stash, he could merely withdraw less BTC for a year or two and then he would have a bit of a cushion in his BTC stash or he could wait to withdraw for a year or two before he even starts to withdraw any BTC (and even add more to his stash, even though in later years adding more does not seem to have as much of a marginal effect as compared to just waiting a wee bit). So with merely waiting a bit, the numbers would change, and he would end up with a decent amount of cushion.

In that regard, I have ongoingly seen that the number of BTC needed has come down at really fast rates. So for example, merely 6 years ago on August 3, 2019, a guy would have had needed 241 BTC in order to be at his $100k per year withdrawal level.

Yet on August 3, 2020, he would have had merely needed 158.6 BTC to be at that $100k per year withdrawal level threshold.

I know that my own look at historical numbers are showing that I could likely project more aggressive withdrawal rates based on lower bitcoin stack sizes, yet I personally would prefer to error on the side of conservativism in order to not overly withdrawal too much BTC too soon.

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 03, 2025, 07:42:21 AM

Sticking to my guns, dumping 25% of the bag between $140,000 - $160,000 if possible. If we pump stupidly high I will ladder sell up and use it for dry powder in the bear market.

Your numbers keep gravitating upwards... and yeah, let's say that we go above $160k-ish by October-ish, then what would your plan be? Like continuing to sell 3% for every $20k price rise or something like that? Or would your increments be tighter or based on percentage?

And by the way, even though you are proclaiming to be selling within a ladder of $140k to $160k.. you are not really laddering very much since there is ONLY about a 14% difference between the top and bottom of your selling price range.

Remember your earlier version, from just a few weeks ago was going to sell your 25% between $125k and $150k, but then within a few days that you said that, the price went up to $123k. .surely making it real in terms of the beginning of the ladder being triggered.

My own preferential difference is smaller amounts at each increment and a larger range, and yeah maybe it would take me close to a doubling to get to 25%, but you are currently doing 25% within a 14% range... and sure, I understand that you would kick yourself if you were to spread it out too much and then:

1) you would end up selling some of your BTC within prices that are so low that it becomes unlikely that the BTC price is going to dip to a low enough level to be able to buy back (maybe you want a more than 50% price drop), and then
2) you might have some sell orders that never end up getting executed because the BTC price does another abrupt reversal that nips the cycle way earlier than expected, like what seemed to have had happened in 2021..

so then you end up going more by time rather than by price in terms of "time is running out" for us to have this UPpity period... which sure, I am a believer in the 4-year cycle.. yet it seems to me that you have some rigidness in your expectations of the cycle, or at least I suppose you are erroring on the side of conservatism, since you want to make sure that you don't miss your ability to make the 25% sales based on overexuberance mistakes of the past.

You are also hoping that you are lucky to be able to get close to the top.. which gives you greater odds of being able to buy back upon a 50% drop.. .. and personally I question the extent to which 50% price drops are feasible to happen if we don't have a bit more of a blow off top. If our top is merely $140k to $210k, 50% would be $70k to $105k. I don't buy it. But if we go north of $250k, then maybe 50% or more (of $125k) corrections start to make sense.. I am trying to not be rigid either in my own thinking since we know that even if we end up projecting out some kind of a base case, the cornz can end up going beyond our expectations in one direction or the other. There is no bright line that we can really identify, so we just have to find some balance that we are willing to accept for ourselves. and you seem to have found some kind of a balance, even though you are also adjusting it at various times, and I doubt that short term happenings really justify your seeming changes, and we have to remember that short term happenings can also retain misleading information.

Quote from: fillippone on August 03, 2025, 08:18:10 AM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 03, 2025, 07:42:21 AM

This could very well be the dip before the rip.
$180,000 top around October maybe?

Sticking to my guns, dumping 25% of the bag between $140,000 - $160,000 if possible. If we pump stupidly high I will ladder sell up and use it for dry powder in the bear market.
@thescalpingpro
Bitcoin peak is near. Don’t repeat your old mistakes.

https://x.com/thescalpingpro/status/1951908394476224678

Your graph reminds me of this one:

Conclusion are not overly different, but a good parameter to keep in mind.

I cannot recall ever thinking about it like that... right now we have the 200-WMA at $51k and we have the previous ATH at $69k, and the 200-WMA is moving up around $50 per day, yet the rate per day is likely to continue to increase beyond $50 per day, so there is still room for the 200-WMA to reach that level.. we still have another $18k to go.

By the way, my current fuck you status chart shows the 200-WMA crossing into $69k-ish at the end of November.. . whether it happens or not might be another story. (See below post for AlcoHoDL's more user-friendly rendition - I was not able to figure out how to add that chart in this post without experiencing an error)

Date   SpotPrice   200 WMA   %gain/time   Spotvs200   gain/time   Coins/10%FU Status   Coins/4%FU Status   Filty-Rich^**
5/31/24   $68,372   $35,188   21.23%   94.30%   $6,161   22.73502330   56.83755826   2,841.8779
11/29/24   $95,662   $41,513   17.97%   130.44%   $6,325   19.27107171   48.17767928   2,408.8840
5/31/25   $104,011   $47,916   15.42%   117.07%   $6,403   16.69588446   41.73971116   2,086.9856
11/30/25   $89,699   $68,999   44.00%   102.00%   $21,083   11.59436421   28.98591053   1,449.2955
5/31/26   $107,639   $82,799   20.00%   0.00%   $13,800   9.66197018   24.15492544   1,207.7463
11/30/26   $123,784   $95,219   15.00%   95.00%   $12,420   8.40171320   21.00428299   1,050.2141
5/31/27   $138,638   $106,645   12.00%   95.00%   $11,426   7.50152964   18.75382410   937.6912
11/30/27   $154,443   $118,802   11.40%   95.00%   $12,158   6.73386862   16.83467154   841.7336
5/31/28   $177,610   $136,623   15.00%   0.00%   $17,820   5.85553793   14.63884482   731.9422
11/29/28   $204,784   $157,526   15.30%   102.00%   $20,903   5.07852379   12.69630947   634.8155
5/31/29   $236,742   $182,110   15.61%   102.00%   $24,584   4.39295866   10.98239665   549.11983
11/29/29   $274,427   $211,098   15.92%   102.00%   $28,988   3.78970834   9.47427085   473.71354
5/31/30   $299,126   $230,097   9.00%   0.00%   $18,999   3.47679664   8.69199160   434.59958

Edited:
Added projected spot price for each of the charts and filled in data for the spot vs 200 column, and added second chart to show that my own current projections expect 200-WMA to reach previous ATH of $69k in approximately November 2025.