Quote from: AlcoHoDL on August 03, 2025, 10:11:19 AM

Read first, then ignore.
Just let your brain be the judge.
Not some forum script!

Oh my!!!!! I don't ignore any forum member either, but my not ignoring surely does not mean that I read their posts.

I will engage in a kind of glancing at the posts.. but yeah, we some times could end up getting sucked into posts that are gobble-dee-gook, and we had not realized that we were looking at someone who we already deemed to be a gobble-dee-gook proliferator.. and there is a scroll wheel, too... .. but yeah, if we ignore we don't see any of the materials of certain members, unless their post is quoted by some member who we are not ignoring... and yeah like you and OOM, I don't consider it within my own interest to completely ignore forum members, even though I might only, at most, glance at their post once I see their username and I might already have ideas (judgements) about them in my head..

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on August 03, 2025, 10:11:19 AM

Ten coins? You're a whale!
Gives the thread a new title.
The Whale Observer!

You consider that there are quite a few of us who have at least 10 BTC.. it is like the mindrust threshold of 2020.. remember that mindrust seemed to have had put so much effort into getting to 10 BTC in 2020.. and surely at that time in 2020, even 10 BTC was starting to be difficult to achieve.. Yet, I think that I have frequently proclaimed (in recent times) for any of us who did that vast majority of our BTC accumulation prior to 2021, then we could have had chances to reach decent sized stashes.

At the same time, 4 years prior to 2021 is 2017.. so surely guys who did most of their BTC stacking between 2018 and 2020 (that would be 3 years), then they would have had done pretty good by now.

By the way, I just looked it up quickly, and I see that if a guy stacked weekly between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2020, he would have needed to buy $474 per week in order to reach 10 BTC in that timeframe.. which would have had been a budget of $75k. it is not outrageous for a westerner to be able to put in that kind of money into bitcoin within a 3-year bitcoin accumulation window, and someone who might have had some luck in timing some of the dips or maybe just being able to accumulate more during some of the dips during that period, I would have had not been unreasonable for a guy to get 10 BTC for around $60k. or even the very lucky to have had bought mindrust's coins at around $4,500, so 10 BTC for $45k... not completely unreasonable, yet sure perhaps some luck contained therein.

Of course there are other variations of how this could play out with more time or even with some guys who might not have had gotten into bitcoin as earlier than 2018, yet they still might have had been building up their investments in other non-BTC investments, so then by the time 2018-2020 came, they might have had the funds to have had been able to inject good sizes of funds at strategic points, which I tend to embrace a combination of DCA and lump sum, yet if someone gets somewhat lucky with part of his lump sum, then he might not feel justified to continuing to put money in when he had just grabbed a big chunk of BTC at a decently good price.

Many of us might recall the 2018 drop that took the BTC price down to $3,124 in November-ish 2018, and a guy could have had been watching that and saw that we spent much of December 2018 to March 2019 bouncing between $3,600 and $4k, so there was nearly 4 months in which a guy could have had lump summed $40k or even a wee bit more than that and got 10 BTC or more in one injection of cash, and maybe such a guy might not have had really felt inclined to put any more money into bitcoin except maybe in March 2020 or maybe during the 2022 dip period... yet even a guy who might have had invested around $40k in to bitcoin in 2018/2019, he might have been able to come up with another $40k in 2022..and maybe picked up another 2-ish bitcoin...

It is hard to really know, since sometimes even guys with relatively modest incomes, they might have abilities to get their hands on extra funds from time to time and once they know about bitcoin, they may well could end up putting those extra funds into bitcoin. .and there is nothing wrong with DCA'rs getting sucked into some lump sum buying, even though I tend to think that the DCAers are a wee bit more committed to buying bitcoin.. and there is a reinforcement that come from regularly, consistently, persistently and ongoingly buying bitcoin that has the potential of causing them to be more aggressive in their overall bitcoin accumulation and likely results in more bitcoin, even if the cost per bitcoin might end up being a wee bit higher than the lump summer.

The punchline may still be that it still would have taken a decent amount of capital to get to 10 BTC, even for a guy who started accumulating bitcoin in early 2018, and yeah as compared with today, it can be almost impossible to get to 10 BTC plus, and I would suggest that even a guy who is accumulating at $474 per week ($24,648 per year), he still might have some difficulties having confidence that he would be able to accumulate a whole BTC in 10 years....

Quote from: Paashaas on August 03, 2025, 01:26:42 PM

Imagine, from ~$200,000 down to capitulation wick $75,000 V shape recovery towards another massive bullrun pre-2028 halving combined with the halving effect hitting the anticipated $1,000,000 in 2029.
R.I.P classic 4 year cycles.

X.

Every time guys are proclaiming the death of the 4-year cycle, and from my perspective, we cannot proclaim the death of the 4-year cycle until after such death happens, and I imagine the death of the 4-year cycle is greatly exaggerated (even if there has not been any intent to exaggerate such observations).

I will concede as I just asserted in my earlier post that draw downs of 50% or more do not seem so feasible if we don't have some kind of an outrageous run up first. Right now, I have troubles considering anything less than $250k as being an outrageous run up...and from my own perspective $250k is merely a 9x run up from $27k in October 2023, and even our 2021 run up was 16.5x from $4,200 in April 2019.

And, many of us are suggesting that the 2021 run up was stifled.

I don't have a problem with the idea (law of large numbers) that it becomes more and more difficult to achieve blow off tops that are similar magnitudes as previous blow off tops.. and sure, it could be possible that something like a $200k top could still result in a retest or going below of $100k, but I don't buy it. I doubt that bitcoin is in such a state that it is likely to get a 50% drawdown from a top of somewhere in the $200k range.. It just does not seem to be enough to be frothy enough to justify a 50% drawdown... and, yeah, sure I could be wrong.. like I frequently am about a variety of these up and down cyclical matters.

Quote from: d_eddie on August 03, 2025, 03:57:35 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 03, 2025, 02:45:44 PM

Your graph reminds me of this one:

Conclusion are not overly different, but a good parameter to keep in mind.

I cannot recall ever thinking about it like that... right now we have the 200-WMA at $51k and we have the previous ATH at $69k, and the 200-WMA is moving up around $50 per day, yet the rate per day is likely to continue to increase beyond $50 per day, so there is still room for the 200-WMA to reach that level.. we still have another $18k to go.

Which would translate into (69k$ - 51k$) / 50 $/day = 360 days, aka one year if the 200-WMA doesn't speed up significantly - which it could, but probably just a bit.

You are correct overall, yet I think historically during the periods of BTC price spikes, the 200-WMA starts to increase at its daily increase significantly in a short period of time. I don't know. I don't claim to be an expert, but my fuck-you status charts show (in 6-month snapshots) how the 200-WMA has historically performed, and we see short term spurts and of course it is a lagging indicator so it takes a bit to ramp up, but it will stay ramped up for a short period while the spot price already has been dropping.