Next scheduled rescrape ... never
Version 1
Last scraped
Edited on 03/08/2025, 19:52:07 UTC
[...]
If you don't mind, let's update that information from 2010 to 2157 so that the similarly generated data is all contained within one table... so this is the raw data that I have in my Excel spreadsheet for the actual facts from December 2010 to May 2025, and the projected out data from November 2025 to May 2157.  
[...]
[ Table data edited out ]
Alright. I tried some tricks, but still could not make the forum accept the entire table. So I started chopping off years, in 5-year chunks, as per your suggestion. I was able to go up to year 2090. That's quite a limitation, as the entire table is not that large... I guess SMF 1.1.19 (2006-2009) doesn't like big posts (as the Bitcoin White Paper doesn't like big blocks). LOL!
[edited out]

That looks nice, and sure it would be nice to go up to 2157, yet there is still a lot of likely to be more relevant information that is in the period up until 2090... within 65 years from now.. and still that is so far into the future up until 2090 that there seem to be a lot of variables that are likely to affect the projections.

Furthermore, I might need to spend a little bit of time attempting to explain some of the columns to the extent that any of the columns are not either self-evident and/or already explained within some of my previous posts.  It is nice to have a reader-friendly version of this going from 2010 to 2090.. so thanks for that.

Just as a quickie.. the 10% FU status represents $800k valuation at the 200-WMA, and so how many coins are needed to be at that quantity of wealth and therefore able to withdraw at that rate, from my point of view.. which would be withdrawing at $80k per year.

The 4% FU status represents $2 million in valuation at the 200-WMA, and traditionally it has been though that withdrawing at 4% per year.. still accomplishing $80k if sticking to a 4% withdrawal rate.. which I consider to be way too conservative.  

I threw in $100 million for filthy rich for this particular chart, since some members likely want to consider aspiring to filthy rich status or maybe admiring folks who have reached that level of wealth.. Of course, with my updated way of thinking about matters, I do consider that filthy rich could withdraw up to 10% or $10million per year in a sustainable way.. which means forever and ever... and sure, if they want their wealth to continue to grow then they could choose to withdraw at a lower rate.

Even though within the table, I have projected the BTC spot price as being 30% higher than the 200-WMA, many of us recognize that historically the BTC spot price has been all over the place, yet it has tended to be quite a bit higher than the 200-WMA in bull years, even by decently large amounts, and even right now, as I type this post, current BTC prices are right around 125% higher than the 200-WMA.  During bear years the 200-WMA had not tended to be below the 200-WMA, yet it has frequently touched on the 200-WMA, yet even from June 2022 until October 2023, bitcoin spent a very long amount of time at or below the 200-WMA, and it even got as low at 35% below the 200-WMA, so even though that is unusual (and even some of that shows in the table), the 200-WMA continued to move up at least right around 20% per year even in the lowest of times.. and it might have had slipped slightly below 20% per year, even though the table only approximately captures the lowest periods of 200-WMA growth between June 2022 and October 2023.

One of the main questions that this table can help to answer might be how many coins we might need in the future to reach certain levels of wealth that we believe would be enough to live off of at our current projection of where we want to be in regards to our standard of living, which I consider to also be helpful in looking at sustainable withdrawal projections that currently I would consider 15.725 as the threshold level to start to be able to live forever off of $80k per year and presuming a 7% per year increase in the dollar amount withdrawn from the BTC, yet there can be some devil in the details regarding how any guy should engage in such withdrawals, which it seems helpful to have some cushion level, even though I personally have confidence that a guy could start with the threshold level and sustain himself in perpetuity at $80k per year..
Original archived Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Scraped on 03/08/2025, 19:22:17 UTC
[...]
If you don't mind, let's update that information from 2010 to 2157 so that the similarly generated data is all contained within one table... so this is the raw data that I have in my Excel spreadsheet for the actual facts from December 2010 to May 2025, and the projected out data from November 2025 to May 2157.  
[...]
[ Table data edited out ]
Alright. I tried some tricks, but still could not make the forum accept the entire table. So I started chopping off years, in 5-year chunks, as per your suggestion. I was able to go up to year 2090. That's quite a limitation, as the entire table is not that large... I guess SMF 1.1.19 (2006-2009) doesn't like big posts (as the Bitcoin White Paper doesn't like big blocks). LOL!
[edited out]

That looks nice, and sure it would be nice to go up to 2157, yet there is still a lot of likely to be more relevant information that is in the period up until 2090... within 65 years from now.. and still that is so far into the future up until 2090 that there seem to be a lot of variables that are likely to affect the projections.

Furthermore, I might need to spend a little bit of time attempting to explain some of the columns to the extent that any of the columns are not either self-evident and/or already explained within some of my previous posts.  It is nice to have a reader-friendly version of this going from 2010 to 2090.. so thanks for that.