Quote from: paxmao on August 03, 2025, 10:14:11 PM

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

Natuarally, Bitcoin ROIs have been shrinking over years and market cycles so with most optimistic view, my prediction is only x2 (100% ROI) for each of next two market cycles and I believe in future market cycles, Bitcoin will not increase more than x2 from its price as ATH of a previous market cycle.

You can check history of Bitcoin ROIs in past years.
https://www.casebitcoin.com/