Quote from: yixichloro2xx on Today at 05:07:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 03:24:56 PM

You know the meaning of CAGR? It is the compounded annual growth rate, so it is difficult to have high numbers such as 20% or higher over long periods of time. Bitcoin's long term CAGR is likely to continue to be coming down, yet at the same time, Bitcoin's CAGR is likely to continue to beat various traditional assets at least for some time into the future. It is not guaranteed, but it is likely. We can measure out any asset and let's say that the investment timeline is something like 8 years, and we see that in the last 8 years bitcoin has a CAGR of 58%.. that means every year during that period, on average, it has grown 58% which gold and the S&P have only grown on average 13% and 12% per year during that time.

Surely there may well be some assets (specific assets like NVIDIA or even certain properties) that have CAGRs that approach bitcoin's CAGR over similar periods of time, such as over 8 years, and yes, it is interesting to continue to see how bitcoin's ongoing CAGR will continue to measure in comparison to other places that value can be placed/invested.

Yes, exactly, CAGR is just a fancy way of saying, How fast did this thing actually grow over time,When you see Bitcoin with a CAGR of 58% over 8 years, that is like watching a tiny sapling turn into a giant oak tree while gold basically sat around like an old houseplant. Of course, nobody expects Bitcoin to keep growing like a rocket forever, because eventually it has to slow down a bit unless Satoshi left us some kind of magic growth fertilizer. Even then, it still has a good chance of outperforming traditional investments for quite a while.

I think that both are true.

1) bitcoin will slow down in it CAGR, yet it could take 50-200 years to really reach a kind of stable level. .. so it is likely that each 4 year cycle will have a bit of a lower amount of UP with the passage of time.. and so the overall average amount of growth per yer (the CAGR) will continue to come down too.. .. but there will also likely be up and down years along the way.. and the heavily down years will drag the numbers down and the heavily up years will drag the numbers up.. yet the trend overall should continue to be down as bitcoin is still in its adoption phase, yet at the same time, adoption still continuing to grow.

2) bitcoin will continue to outperform various traditional investment both in terms of its fundamentals being better than a lot of them, and since bitcoin is a (money and information) protocol and also since bitcoin has a disadvantage of being in its early stages of adoption... so bitcoin's network effects (like those outlined by Trace Mayer) continue to grow and fold upon themselves.

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on Today at 05:07:19 PM

What is great is Bitcoin doesn’t care who you are. You don’t need to be a Wall Street hotshot or some rich uncle in a suit. If you have a phone and a little bit of spare cash, you can start stacking sats. Meanwhile, some big institutions and governments are still scratching their heads, trying to figure out how to get in without looking late to the party. That is your cue to quietly front run them while they are still drafting memos......Plus, Bitcoin limited supply is like a party with only 21 million seats, once they are taken, that is it. No printing more tickets, so while your local currency is busy shrinking in your pocket thanks to inflation, Bitcoin just keeps sitting there, stubbornly refusing to be diluted.

I agree with all of this, while at the same time, seats will come available as the price goes up, but yeah at the same time, if the price did not go up enough, then some of those seats will still not come available and people surely can choose whether or not to give up some seats, even if they know that they are limited.. and yeah, if they are holding 100 chairs but they only need 1 or 2 or 10, they may well be willing to give up 5 of their chairs at $115k, and then perhaps another 3 chairs at $173k and another chair or two at $276k.. .. so they might not even realized that they were holding so many chairs until at some later point down the road.. and surely there are some guys with 1,000s of chairs...

By the way, the idea of limited supply is correct, but it probably is still fair to suggest that we have 2.1 Quadrillion chairs.. but at the same time, there are some folks who hold trillions of those chairs.. ... and even folks who are considered relatively small potatoes are holding billions of those chairs... some are still accumulating chairs and others are o.k. with letting some of the chairs go since they have way more chairs than they need or want relative to how much the chairs cost them versus how much they can get for their chairs currently.

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on Today at 05:07:19 PM

Sure, nothing is risk free and if it were, we all be sipping cocktails on the beach by now, but with some common sense, a long term view, and maybe a DCA strategy so you don’t lose sleep every time the price dips, Bitcoin can be one of the most interesting places to put value over the next decade......And hey, at least with Bitcoin, you don’t have to pretend to understand the fine print of the traditional financial system, because half the time, even the bankers don’t.

Like you say, there is likely to continue to be a lot of growth in bitcoin in the coming 10 years, and surely we live in interesting times, and hopefully guys who are accumulating bitcoin are making sure that they hold decent amounts of their stack in self-custody... especially the longer that they are in bitcoin and the more that they build their bitcoin stash.

There is a lot that can be learned in bitcoin, yet we do not need to know all of the details in order to figure out how much of a stake that we might want to take and how we might choose to manage our stash through the years, whether we are still accumulating bitcoin or we might transition into maintenance stage or even if we are lucky we might get to overaccumulation stage in which we can start to live off of our bitcoin.. and even starting to draw from our bitcoin might not necessarily require that we reach overaccumulation stage if there might be some other reasons such as age and/or health that might cause us to move into some kind of a withdrawal stage.