Quote from: SmartCharpa on August 04, 2025, 08:49:08 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 04, 2025, 04:41:22 PM

Let's say that six years ago (that would have had been August 2019), a person had wanted to be very aggressive in his bitcoin investment, and he looked back historically, and he saw that a person who had merely invested 10% to 15% of his income into bitcoin could have had reached a good quantity of bitcoin and even to have had been on his way to reaching overaccumulaton status after a couple of cycles.

At the same time, he realizes that he cannot go back in history, yet he would likely have to be more aggressive if he wants to attempt to be able to do the same thing, so he decided to invest 25% of his income and so he figured that he would have had invested 1 full year of his income into bitcoin after 4 years and a year and a half of his income in 1.5 years.. so he considered that he might be able to get close to overaccumulation status after about 6 years investing.. perhaps? depending on how bitcoin does and if he can stay committed in investing 25% of his income into bitcoin.

Sure, if someone first started investing at least 10% to 15% of their income in bitcoin 6 years ago, they would now have a big holdings, with how much bitcoin price has increased over the years. That person might be in a strong position now, perhaps we may even call it overaccumulation. Grin

My definition of overaccumulation has changed through the years, yet I personally would not consider accumulating 15% of your income for the past 6 years as overaccumulation, even though the person would have had accumulated a decent amount of bitcoin and would have had invested 90% of his annual salary into bitcoin.

We can look this up and we can use specific numbers. A person with a $30k income would invest $4.5k in a year in order to get up to 15% of their income invested every year. That would be about $87 per week.

We can go to this website (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/dollar-cost-averaging-calculator), and we can plug in the numbers for between August 1, 2019 and today, and we get $27.3k invested and nearly 1.23 BTC accumulated.

We can see that today 1.23 BTC has a spot price value of about $142k and a 200-WMA value of nearly $63k. I suggest that we have to go by the 200-WMA when we are figuring out sustainable withdrawal, and I would suggest that a $63k 200-WMA valuation ONLY allows for a $6,300 salary per year, which is right around 1/5 his current salary, and sure maybe he can just get up to his current salary, but I would still suggest that he is quite a ways away from being able to withdraw $30k per year. If he keeps buying bitcoin at the current rate of $87 per week, then most likely within 3-4 years he would be able to get to enough bitcoin to be able to withdraw at $30k per year, if that is his target withdrawal rate level.

We can see how the 200-WMA continues to go up at a pretty great rate, and in order for his stash to be sustainably withdrawable at $30k per yer, then the 200-WMA value of the stash needs to be at least $300k, which if he gets up to 1.5 bitcoin in the next 3-4 years, he probably would be close to having his stash be sustainably able to withdraw $30k per year, which I personally believe that it is better to reach an overaccumulation status and to stay in overaccumulation status rather than pulling the trigger on cashing out BTC too soon and then overly depleting your principle so that you are not staying in overaccumulation status..

Of course having enough or more than enough depends on what it is that you are wanting to reach in terms of an income, and I merely choose the guy's current income even though I could have had suggested some other income level that could be either lower or higher than his current income.

Quote from: SmartCharpa on August 04, 2025, 08:49:08 PM

But we cannot go back to the past right now, and you're right that if someone wants to reach that level now, they will need to be more serious about their plan. Whether Investing 25% of your income will shows that you are serious, and if we can maintain this level of investment for some years, we may reach the level or even more but that will depend on how bitcoin operates.

For sure, if you are able to do a higher percentage, then you will get a higher stake in bitcoin sooner, so that if bitcoin ends up having a run, then you benefit from what you had already put in. Surely many normal people struggle to invest and/or save 10% of their income on a regular, consistent and ongoing basis, so I try not to presume too much about what normal people are ready, willing and/or able to do.

Surely there are some normal people who might be able to live comfortably off of $15k to $25k per year, and sometimes if those guys get raises in their income, and they go from an income that is $30k per year to $50k or even $80k per year, they may well be able to invest their extra income and continue to keep their expenses down... so then they may well put themselves into a place in which they can reach overaccumulation levels sooner than their peers.

Quote from: Findingnemo on August 04, 2025, 09:09:01 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 04, 2025, 08:13:42 PM

We also don't know about the ability to increase our $2,500 per month investment amount. If we are starting out with that amount and anticipating to be able to continue at that amount, then that is fine, but it might not account for everything... We also might start at $2k per month and we anticipate over the next 5 years we will be able to increase our amount to $3k per month, so we just project forward with our idea of an average of $2,500, so our actual goal might be more about maintaining an investment amount yet not exactly knowing how many BTC that will attain, even though we would like to get to 1 whole BTC in around the time frame of 5 years, so then the amount of BTC accumulated still could be a kind of tentative goal that we believe to be in the ballpark of realistic, and maybe we even consider that we might be able to accumulate anywhere between 0.65 BTC and 1.2 BTC in that timeline, and we hope to hit somewhere around 1 BTC, even though we consider it as potentially a difficult amount to achieve based on our current budget constraints and our knowledge about our future budget constraints..

I would call it as still a success when we do what we are supposed to because the price factor is not in our hands and we can only increase the potential savings that go for our DCA funds to a certain level. Because DCA is mainly used by retail investors who might have fixed income that is why we also try to upskill and increase the revenue stream from others ways it's not just for the bitcoin but to have the financial freedom that we all are talking about. Eventually, bitcoin is also one way to reach there but it's getting out of reach year after year.

About achieving the goal, DCA isn't not just a strategy but the blend of consisteny with the discipline that we are commited to achieving so be it 0.6, 0.8 or 1.2 one must keep continue to what they wanted to achieve and if that happens as we intend then it good and even if it take more time we are still progressing.

I personally believe that bitcoin will likely outgrow a lot of assets for a long time into the future, but surely the steepness of the growth curve is going to continue to be less steep. The punchline in the end does not point to some other place in which we should put our money, so we just have to do what we can do, even if we happens to be new and/or early in our bitcoin accumulation journey.