Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:44:40 AM

@jjg
You know I have posted about selling off all my btc in 2022.
For around 23 or 24 k a coin.

Maybe a bit more I had a 60k loss.
But it allowed me to keep the mine afloat from fall of 2022 until April 2024 and to pivot .
Plus my new mining is all mine no partners.

It is prepaid until August 2026
And in theroy I will finally have my 2022 coins back in hand by then.
Yeah mining is hard.

Dca would have been better.
As for picking a date
Nov 2013 1300 price is one of the worse times to buy and hold 10 years.

NOV 2013 1300
NOV 2023 35000. So that 10 year hodl is around 27 x 1
Hodling for ten years kills
Anything .
So far.

Maybe it is unfair for me to grill you about your past bitcoin accumulation and/or maintenance of your BTC holdings behaviors?

I think that sometimes you have gotten yourself into worse (or inferior) positions based on your having had deviated away from focusing on ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, to the extent that you were benefited by your mining set ups might be side questions, and surely you have the right to make those of kinds of decisions, yet it becomes problematic when you are presenting some of those ideas and/or practices as if they were good ideas and/or financially beneficial to you, even though surely I understand that there had been times in 2021 and likely even other times when mining had become greatly profitable to potentially make a lot of money and to stack a lot of sats, yet you did not keep your money in sats. You either converted it to dollars or you used it to ongoingly buy more mining rigs which may or may not end up generating close to enough bitcoin to make up for the various outlays as compared to just keeping that money in bitcoin.

We cannot go back so it remains a bit unfair to you, even though I frequently try to suggest that it may well not even take very much BTC to start to generate a decently large perpetual income from just holding BTC and cashing out periodically, whether monthly or quarterly or yearly or even cyclically.

I had given you several examples regarding how 8 bitcoin works right now to achieve a perpetually sustainable income of $40k per year, or how by the middle of 2027 the same BTC could support a perpetual $80k per year income.

So from my perspective it is just getting to a certain quantity of bitcoin that is enough or more than enough in order to be able to have that bitcoin as a way to either completely support us in the event that we do not have any other income sources or perhaps to supplement our income in cases where we already have various income sources (which seems to be your current case).

I don't necessarily want to grill you or to beat you up, even though when you give more facts you are tending to continue to show that you are not really building up your bitcoin stash.. and sure maybe this time is different and you are going to start to focus on mostly accumulating bitcoin, yet ongoingly any kind of rise in the bitocin price you talk about the additional miners that you are buying so you really are making slow progress in stacking bitcoin when you keep buying miners with your bitcoin and your bitcoin stash is not significantly growing..

And, I even pointed out that gettig to even as low as a 4 BTC stash would be able to get you to an $80k per year income from that by late 2029 - even in the event that you might not be at that level (or exceeding that level already).

We might be talking past each other, and rather than beating up on you, I am largely just preferring to help guys (even potentially you) in regards to coming to realizations that it is good to focus on keeping on accumulating BTC, and even the quantity of BTC keeps going down in terms of even supporting an $80k per year income, right now guys who have reached at least 15.6 BTC have crossed the entry level BTC quantity threshold to be able to sustainably be able to withdraw at that $80k per year level, even accounting for a 7% per year increase in the amount of income that you will need, so yeah this first year would be $80k, then next year would be $85.6k, and then year three would be $91.6k, etc etc etc.

Quote from: Cipherpz on Today at 03:59:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:04:51 AM

[edited out]

If you only sell and don't buy back, which you reinvest, cashing out all at once just for the joy of price increases can create a huge long-term opportunity cost. Even if your future income increases significantly, your future total value can decrease significantly even if your BTC holdings decrease or increase in price. Especially if a big opportunity arises in the BTC price, this difference will be even greater.

I not completely opposed to what you are saying Cipherpz, yet I am trying to communicate about various formulas to sell either price based selling or time based selling that does not involved needs to buy back cheaper, so there is a bit of an assumption of reaching a status of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin to sustain the income level that you are targetting.

I talk about a lot of these ideas in my sustainable withdrawal thread.

I also talk about various ways to incorporate buying back strategies and/or attempts to play the BTC price within the selling and/or buying back strategies, yet my own perception is the reaching of overaccumulation status first so you are not selling with intentions to buy back cheaper.

Quote from: Cipherpz on Today at 03:59:41 AM

It is wise not to repeat the same mistakes — such as suddenly selling all of them when you reach a profit or buying at the top of the market — without getting discouraged.

My own suggestions tend to be never selling so many coins as to knock yourself out of overaccumulation status. So for example if currently you have reached a status where you are selling $80k per year (or $6,666 per month) because you have at least 15.6 BTC, then if you have more than 21 BTC or alternatively more than 27 BTC, then you would have an extra 5.4 BTC and/or 11.4 BTC respectively for each of those scenarios, so the more BTC that you have then the more BTC that you have to work with in the event that you want to sell more than your monthly allotted amount as shows up in the sustainable withdrawal tool, which is currently showing as 0.0561296 BTC per month for a guy who has the bear minimum threshold stash of 15.6 BTC.

Each of us is responsible to figure out if we are still in BTC accumulation stage or if we have reached maintenance stage or if we might be in sustainable withdrawal stage, and surely sometimes the stages might overlap depending on how we are choosing to manage our bitcoin stash.

Quote from: Cipherpz on Today at 03:59:41 AM

Because the real advantage of BTC comes from holding a position for a long time, which is difficult to get back once you lose it. Investing $50k in 2018-2020 and being able to withdraw $80k a year from 8 BTC today is not a fantasy, but the result of being patient at the right time and avoiding wrong decisions.

8 BTC right now ONLY allows for a withdrawal rate of $41k per year, yet by mid 2027 it should be enough to allow for an $80k per year withdrawal rate. Right now, from my own formulas, 15.6 BTC is the minimum threshold that is needed to sustainably withdraw $80k per year. Guys have to figure out their comfort levels with their formulas and to make sure that it is sustainable. It may be better for guys to either withdraw a bit less than the maximum or to make sure that they have a bit of a bitcoin cushion so that they do not end up withdrawing too much bitcoin too soon and then knocking themselves out of overaccumulation status.

Quote from: Cipherpz on Today at 03:59:41 AM

Again, even if your BTC holdings decrease slightly over time, your total net worth in dollars can become much larger, and the tax burden can also be reduced step by step.

I am not sure if the tax burden would reduce, if your wealth is continuing to grow and perhaps you keep withdrawing more and more in terms of the dollar value, so the tax burden would not necessarily go down unless you figure out ways to exempt some of you income from taxes.

If we are measuring bitcoin value by the 200-WMA, then so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has continued to go up in value so our bitcoin would continue to go up in value, even though it may well take less bitcoin to support the same income level in dollars with the passage of time, and so part of the idea is that if we are withdrawing at a rate that is lower than the amount of value that our bitcoin is increasing, then our bitcoin would be increasing in value more than we are withdrawing and that is part of the reason that we try to figure out rates that are sustainable and would also likely account for the cost of living increases whether we calculate them at 7% per year or maybe we use some other rate that we consider to be sufficiently accounting for the cost of living increases that we are experiencing and/or expecting to experience.

Quote from: Cipherpz on Today at 03:59:41 AM

With a low selling frequency, you can stay out of the market swings and take larger positions to lock in the next cycle's profits.
I think BTC's price decline is unlikely, but there is always some risk in the market. This strategy will reduce that risk, if not eliminate it completely.

Historically BTC spot price swings have been all over the place so sometimes they go up and down and can even stay down for extended periods.

So far the 200-WMA has tended to go up. The 200-WMA is not guaranteed to continue to go up, yet there are some advantages in using it as a value measurement, even while acknowledging the 200-WMA as a lagging indicator.