Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".
I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).
What range would you use and why?
You know predicting Bitcoin future return is something that still remains uncertain because of its volatility nature, but if we use some data available, we will come up with a possible number for the yearly return rate.
Here is what I think
Very bad scenario; Caterophic event:
let say we have a world war 3 break out, and Nukes event happened, another government after Trump comes out with a heavy regularly crackdown, or some twists in the original agenda for Bitcoin and which result in great FUD and lose of trust for Bitcoin.( -15% -50%) is possible.
Bad situations: where Bitcoin bitcoin faces another competitor coin, as we've seen the government adopted, Sol, XRP
, and ADA, and suddenly
bank preferred xrp as some rumours has been around over the Banks adopting XRP as their preferred mode of
botherboder settlement due to its fast and cheaper fees. ( - 5% -10% anual return rate)
Neutral case : Nothing happened, adoption isn't much but not decreasing, everything remains stable, ( +5%, 10% - 15% annual return rate)
Good : everything is in good shape, technology advancement that enhances the use of Bitcoin, such as reduced costs of mining or even we experience a reduced cost of transaction fees
etc. (+15% - 35% anual return rate)
Very good: (a.k.a God came to dinner) Here the world came together and agreed ( various government of the world to use Bitcoin as one global currency for trade and medium of exchange on the
international/institutional level, imagine, out of 7+Billion population adopt Bitcoin, and Bitcoin sucks the market cap of Gold. (40% 60% anual return rate is possible)