Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 13, 2025, 06:17:53 AM

Quote from: Moreno233 on August 12, 2025, 04:06:00 PM

My joy is that I'm doing the right thing now, investing mainly in Bitcoin and holding with no intention of selling even in this market cycle and the next. I have not reach my accumulation goal so I'm still aggressively investing my discretionary income until I meet the target I set for myself in terms of Bitcoin quantity.

Although, if you let me give you some advice. - Be careful about "targets". Don't make them the actual goal, but use them as a sort of guide because you may want to add more Bitcoin that's more than your original "target".

For sure, if we start out and we consider that it could take us 5 years to 30 years to reach our target depending on how things go, and so we might keep working towards the target, which might be just ongoing accumulation of BTC and otherwise having other balances in our lives.

Then as we consider that we are making progress towards the goal, every year or two or maybe even more frequently, we reassess where we are and our progress. Some periods of reassessment will be deep and other areas of reassessment will be more superficial since we might see that we are still on target.

If we have been working towards our goal and 5 years pass, we might reassess and say that we could have anywhere between 5 to 20 more years to reach our goals, and if we might consider that we are making progress faster than we thought, we might recalculate based on that.

I think that in my earlier years of creating and building financial goals, it frequently seemed to me that I was not making progress quickly, yet I always could see the progress in the numbers, year after year after year, and surely after many years, the compounding of the value seems to start to add up.. and for me it was much greater in bitcoin than it had been in my traditional investments, even though even in bitcoin sometimes I have thought that the progress was slow and sometimes seeming to be stagnant.

The longer we are assessing and reassessing our progress, the more likely we will figure out some more specific ways of measuring whether we have enough and/or more than enough and also to figure out how much of a financial and/or psychological cushion that we might need in order to feel comfortable where we are at or where we are getting close to reaching.

Quote from: SmartCharpa on August 13, 2025, 08:17:22 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 12, 2025, 04:35:00 PM

[edited out]

I understand your point, and I agree that if you invest in Bitcoin for the long term, you should be able to leave the money for many years, perhaps between 4 and 10 years or even more. That is why it is important to be sure that the money that you invest will not be used for daily expenses or emergencies.

However, before investing, everyone should have a positive mindset toward their investment.

We are largely investing into bitcoin because we think that it is going to have good chances of going up in value, and even though we know it is not guaranteed to go up, we consider that it has good odds of going up. The more confidence that we have, the more aggressively we invest.

We might not have a lot of confidence but we can still invest more conservatively.

I think that we should be attempting to be somewhat emotionally and even financially detached from our investment, so we invested and if we are young, we likely have a 10 year or more timeline that we are expecting to stay invested in bitcoin. If we lose our confidence, we can cash out some or all of our bitcoin. We are never stopped from changing our mind about our investment, and likely we are learning as we go, so if we believe that the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis is going down, then we can decide to get out, even if we should have had been able to get in and have more than a 10 year investment timeline.

Quote from: SmartCharpa on August 13, 2025, 08:17:22 AM

And you should decide how much you can invest in Bitcoin, either weekly or monthly without touching it, and this should be extra money, not money for other needs. If you invest money that you might need tomorrow or next month, you may be forced to sell at a difficult time, especially if the market price falls.

You realize that the most that you can lose is 100% of what you had invested into bitcoin, yet there are also chances that your investment could go up in value.

Going by your forum registration date of December 2022 SmartCharpa, you could have had invested into bitcoin heavily in late 2022 and even into 2023 and perhaps even by investing very aggressively for 1 year in 2023, then you might have had been able to get your bitcoin at an average price of right around $25k per BTC,, so depending on how much capital you would have had been able to put into bitcoin (like front loading your investment), then right now your portfolio would be close to 5x in profits.. and not that you are necessarily wanting to trade, but instead you might have just appreciated being able to frontload your bitcoin investment in the first year that you were in bitcoin, and then just let it go from there.

Of course, you could have also supplemented your bitcoin investment by continuing to buy bitcoin after 2023 and even through 2024, and surely not everyone is in a position to front load their bitcoin investment, so then it just tends to take them longer to invest by investing over a whole cycle or two before maybe starting to feel that they are beginning to reach a place where they have enough or more than enough bitcoin.

I guess that part of my point is that if you start building a good stake into bitcoin, then even if you are not planning to sell it, you start to build more confidence and conviction if your BTC holdings had largely gone up 3-5x or more.

Quote from: SmartCharpa on August 13, 2025, 08:17:22 AM

Sure. A steady income makes it easier to invest weekly or monthly, but even if your income is not steady, you can still invest as long as you are serious with it. Since we have to maintain our investments and separate them from the money that will cover our other needs. This allows you not to fear and hold your investment for the long term without stress.

Maybe a guy came to bitcoin a bit more than 4 years ago because he heard about bitcoin through the 2021 hype.. and surely even if he started investing sporadically in bitcoin through all of 2021 price peak and maybe his income was not that steady, so some weeks he would buy $10 worth of bitcoin and other weeks he would buy $100 or even more, so then after a whole 4 years of investing into bitcoin, maybe he averaged $70 per week investing into bitcoin since the middle of 2021, and so he had invested around $15.5k and he accumulated 0.41 BTC. Currently, 0.41 BTC has a 200-WMA value of $21.1k and a spot price value of $51k. If he keeps accumulating bitcoin for another 4-6 years, he may well be in a position in which he can stop accumulating bitcoin..

So yeah, he might still feel that he has a long way to go, but he can see after 4 years that he was making good progress. We cannot realoy say what the guy should do, but he seems to be in a good place given his consistency in ongoingly buying bitcoin.

Quote from: Derekfunds on August 13, 2025, 11:02:05 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 13, 2025, 05:58:47 AM

Quote from: HistoLock on August 12, 2025, 08:08:08 PM

Quote from: maydna on April 17, 2019, 01:04:38 PM

It is hard always to buy the dip because we don't know when the dip is coming. But we have a chance to buy after the dip is coming but still buying in the dip will always give us a big chance to make a big profit later. I always try to buy every dip, and I try to place at a very lower price, but as I said before, I am not too often to get the lowest price, but it's not a problem for me because I can get a lower price.

Perhaps, after I bought the coin, the price will down in 2-3 times then it start to increase so at least I still get a chance to make a profit after a few hours. But if the price is moving so fast, then my chance to make a profit will bigger because I don't have to wait for a long time. That is why we need to place the order buy in many places especially in every lower price so we could get the lowest price to buy.

Yes, it is true that if we can buy the dip, then we will have a chance to profit from it. After the dip comes, it gives us a chance to corner. However, I will advise everyone to try to buy the dip, because you can get it at any price. It is very important to know that it is difficult to buy the dip all the time. To buy it, you must try and place an order. You don't have to wait long after buying it, there is a chance to profit within two to three hours. You don't have to wait long to profit from it. I always try to buy the dip.

There surely are trade-offs for any newbie who gives any shits about buying the dip rather than just figuring out ways to buy bitcoin persistently, consistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively for 1-2 cycles or longer or maybe until they reach overaccumulation status.

Buying the dip adds a waiting component for something that might not happen, yet there still can be ways to buy the dip with a bit of reason and as a supplementary strategy rather than as a main strategy.

You are right, anyone that is yet to start Bitcoin investment and still trying or planning on buying during the Dip is really wasting their time and some opportunities because no one knows when the Dip will occur or come. But if someone has gone far on their accumulation let say to their overaccumulation stage, waiting for the Dip to buy at this stage is not totally bad because they are already at their desire point or state and this stage someone can even decide to miss sometime and it won't affect their holding.

Yep. A person who has reached overaccumulation stage does not need to accumulate any more bitcoin, so yeah, people who are in these stages still might have money on the side to buy the dip if the dip gets low enough, but maybe generally speaking they are no longer regularly buying bitcoin. If such a person has not started selling, he may just be in a maintenance stage where he is merely holding and so maybe selling later using price based sustainable withdrawal and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal.

Another thing is that he might have other income sources that he is living off of, and maybe he plans to start to employ his withdrawal system at some later point down the road.. and maybe he has a date that he will start.. .like June 1, 2027 or some other date that might relate to his retiring or maybe that he plans to go from fulltime work to part time.. or even to pursue anther kind of work at that point. There can be various ways of structuring once a guy has calculated that he has enough or more than enough BTC.

Also, if he is measuring the value of his BTC from the 200-WMA, he can also project the rate he expects the 200-WMA to continue to go up and he can continue to monitor it to see if he needs to make any adjustments to how much he might feel that he is able to withdraw.

Let's say that the guy wants to be able to support an $80k per year income, yet his target date is June 1, 2027, yet his BTC stash has already reached an ability to support a $60k per year income, he has 11.75 BTC. When he looks at the fuck you status chart, he sees that it is projected that only 11.6 BTC is projected to be needed for a $80k per year income in December of this year, and in mid 2027, it is projected that only around 7.5 BTC would be needed to support an $80k per year income, so he figures he has enough and/or more than enough BTC to support his target income at his target time for starting to draw upon such BTC to support such income, even though he can continue to monitor the situation, he feels confident that he has enough or more than enough BTC, so his main concerns continue to be making sure that he safeguards the BTC that he currently holds and he has systems in place to start to draw upon the BTC when the time comes.. which means that he may well already be testing out some of those avenues.

Quote from: LOCKACO on August 13, 2025, 11:21:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 12, 2025, 06:28:26 PM

[edited out]

While this is a fascinating theoretical framework, it's crucial to acknowledge the risks and assumptions:
Past Performance: The "10% rule" is based on Bitcoin's past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. Bitcoin's growth rate may slow as the market matures.

The 200-WMA Isn't Perfect: While a powerful tool, the 200-WMA is not an infallible support level. Bitcoin has, on rare occasions, dipped below it. A prolonged period below the 200-WMA could disrupt this strategy.
Tax Implications: Cashing out Bitcoin is a taxable event in most jurisdictions. Your sustainable withdrawal rate must account for capital gains taxes.

Lifestyle and Flexibility: This strategy assumes a certain level of discipline and the ability to adjust spending if the market enters a prolonged bear phase.
Hyper-Volatility: Even with a smoothed-out average, Bitcoin's price swings are significant. This kind of plan is not for the faint of heart and requires a very high risk tolerance.

You should probably attempt to engage with those concepts, in the event that you believe that they are issues that came up within my earlier post. You have not shown that you even understand what you are posting beyond what an AI might post.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 13, 2025, 01:19:37 PM

Quote from: LOCKACO on August 13, 2025, 11:21:34 AM

Tax Implications: Cashing out Bitcoin is a taxable event in most jurisdictions. Your sustainable withdrawal rate must account for capital gains taxes.

That's why I support and encourage that Bitcoin-DeFi should be built and further developed so that if we need fiat to invest/buy something, we could simply use it as collateral to borrow fiat. - The user avoids giving up the ownership of his/her Bitcoin.

If a guy had been accumulating bitcoin for a couple of cycles since mid-2016 and he had been investing about $200 per week and he invested around $80k into bitcoin and he accumulated around 20 BTC, and he goes through his calculations in regards to how many BTC that he has and what income he wants to provide for himself which is $80k per year. He sees that he has more than enough BTC to support such an income, since he sees that as long as he has at least 15.572 BTC, then he has enough to support himself perpetually at $80k per year, even including increasing his income 7% each year in terms of the dollar amount.

He can account for the taxes that he needs to pay, and if he believes that he needs more, then he has enough of a cushion that he could increase the amount if he were to feel that he needs to. From the sustainable withdrawal tool, he can see that currently 20 BTC would support an income of $103k per year, so he has already calculated that he needs $80k per year and he has also accounted for any taxes that he may be paying. It is a bit preferable to have an extra cushion either in terms of the amount of bitcoin that you have or alternatively an ability to still live comfortably with having a net withdraw amount that is lower than the gross amount that was calculated.

For sure, we have to attempt to account for any accounting errors that we may have had ended up making, and hopefully have ways of dealing with those kinds of matters. No one should end up pulling the fuck you lever and going to live off his bitcoin without sufficently and/or adequately calculating that he has enough BTC or more than enough BTC.

Quote from: Moreno233 on August 13, 2025, 01:42:10 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 13, 2025, 06:17:53 AM

Quote

My joy is that I'm doing the right thing now, investing mainly in Bitcoin and holding with no intention of selling even in this market cycle and the next. I have not reach my accumulation goal so I'm still aggressively investing my discretionary income until I meet the target I set for myself in terms of Bitcoin quantity.

Although, if you let me give you some advice. - Be careful about "targets". Don't make them the actual goal, but use them as a sort of guide because you may want to add more Bitcoin that's more than your original "target".

The final destination is overaccumulation stage, and the plan is to achieve that before retiring from active service. I have short term targets like the quantity of Bitcoin I want to achieve this year, in five years time, ten years time and so on. This is just my strategy to ensure I did not slack or get bored on the process. By achieving short term targets, it will be a motivation to pursue the long term targets. Like I said, the final goal is to achieve overaccumulation before retirement.

For sure it is good to have short, medium and long term targets to make sure that we remain on track and we can make some adjustments along the way, and yeah we should also prepare to either overshoot or to undershoot our short or medium term targets, which may well end up affecting the longer term targets, and I would think any of us who attempt to be conservative in our targets is that we become likely to overshoot the targets, and we also realize that bitcoin's performance is not guaranteed.. even though surely 3x in 10 years is a pretty conservative goal.

Historically, the dollar has debased by 50% every 7-10 years.. so just to keep up with the debasing of the dollar we would expect our investment should 2x or 2.5x in 10 years. The dollar is expected to debase more in the coming 7-10 years as compared to how much it had debased in the past 10 years or even in the 10 years previously.

Of course, there are other ways to measure our investment in terms of our own cost of living and how much we think that we need to support ourselves at our expected standard of living. I think bitcoin is built to be able to account for the debasement of the dollar and the frailty of using the dollar as our measuring instrument (our denominator).

Quote from: LOCKACO on August 13, 2025, 02:34:15 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 13, 2025, 01:19:37 PM

[edited out

I SUPPORT BITCOIN-DeFi too, LETS LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE OF HAVING IT
The ability to borrow against Bitcoin without selling it is a powerful tool. It allows individuals and businesses to unlock the liquidity of their assets for various purposes, such as:

Making a down payment on a house
Funding a business

Paying off high-interest debt
Investing in other assets (without selling their Bitcoin)

Your point about Bitcoin-DeFi is spot-on. It represents the natural evolution of Bitcoin as a financial asset. It allows users to have the best of both worlds: the long-term value appreciation of their Bitcoin and the immediate utility of a loan to meet their short-term financial needs. It's a critical step in turning Bitcoin from a "frozen" store of value into a productive and dynamic asset within the global financial system

Be careful on counting on bitcoin defi and/or giving your coins to someone else. There may be advantages to selling them, but yeah, each person can decide which options to use as those options are available and accounting for what terms are offered.

Quote from: Sim_card on August 13, 2025, 05:00:09 PM

Quote from: LOCKACO on August 13, 2025, 11:21:34 AM

Tax Implications: Cashing out Bitcoin is a taxable event in most jurisdictions. Your sustainable withdrawal rate must account for capital gains taxes.

After reaching an over accumulation stage and decides to withdraw using the sustainable withdrawal method, tax payment will be nothing because your portfolio have compounded overtime. Since tax is applicable to your bitcoin withdrawal is the main reason why you should only be buying till you reach your over accumulation target or already old without a discretionary income.

Quote from: LOCKACO on August 13, 2025, 11:21:34 AM

Lifestyle and Flexibility: This strategy assumes a certain level of discipline and the ability to adjust spending if the market enters a prolonged bear phase.

No matter how bear the market will be in future, someone who have been investing into bitcoin for three circles and above will be in profits because the bottom line of the dip in every new circle is always higher that the previous. Also, bitcoin creates a new ATH in every new circle.
However, you are not to be withdrawing from your bitcoin portfolio constantly, but once in a while, to avoid selling too many bitcoin too soon and be left with little portfolio so that you don't regret your actions.

Personally, I believe that any guy who has reached his overaccumulation stage, he has options to withdraw BTC in accordance with price based systems and/or time-based systems, and sure, he can figure out how much he is able to withdraw under either or both systems without causing himself to fall out of over accumulation status, and so he could be withdrawing monthly or quarterly or yearly or even cyclically. He has to figure out his withdrawal systems and even his determinations of how much bitcoin he needs to have to stay in overaccumulation status.. so if he fucks up, then that is on him, and surely I would think that if a guy realizes that he currently needs 15.572 BTC for his fuck you status of $80k per year, yet if he has more than 20 BTC, then surely he has a cushion (of 4.428 BTC), and every year the amount that he needs to stay in overaccumulation status is less and less and less, so a guy in that particular situation should be able to figure out a way to draw his $80k every year, even accounting for 7% per year increases in the dollar amount without falling out of overaccumulation status.. and if he is worried about falling out of overaccumulatoin status, then maybe he needs to have more of a bitcoin cushion before he starts the employment of his sustainable withdrawals system.. perhaps he feels he needs 21 BTC to start rather than 20 BTC or maybe he wants to employ the easier solution which is that if he waits until next year, then it is likely that an $85k per year income would need less than 12 BTC, so then with the mere passage of time (1 year in this example), his BTC cushion has gotten bigger next year without his having to accumulate more BTC (8 BTC of a cushion next year as compared with this year's cushion of only 4.42 BTC).