There are probably various ways to place limits on yourself as a kind of way of knowing that remaining mostly long in bitcoin already has really high likelihoods of paying off quite stupendously, so any trade attempts might end up losing, but they are something that kind of makes you feel good and may even involve a bit of downside hedging, since many of us realize that one of the most inevitable things about bitcoin's future price performance is that it is going to continue to be volatile in both directions, yet we cannot really determine in advance when and/or how much, yet there are likely still ways to play it without getting too greedy and as away to smooth out some of the inevitable volatility. and still being o.k. if our actions do not end up benefiting from it.

Not to glorify trading, but there are likely ways to learn too, as long as we do not get too greedy, and personally I could not justify more than 10% of my BTC holdings being employed in such direction, yet there are likely some guys (based on their skill set) who might be able to reasonably justify 30% or more of the size of their BTC holdings getting deployed in such trading/hedging plays.

So I won't completely poo poo such practices, as long as we likely can realize that an overwhelming majority of normies likely make their bitcoin position worse when they are trying to trade rather than either beating it or coming close to just matching what would have had happened with a more pure BTC buying and/or holding strategy.


We know that 2021 was a bit of a stifled year, yet at the same time, it still played out pretty well for everyone who was largely holding and/or accumulating bitcoin.. and surely at that time, many folks who would have had gotten into bitcoin prior to 2021 would have had pretty decent odds of having average costs per BTC well under $10k per coin...

And, yeah when 2022 came a long, that ended up being a pretty BIG drop, even given the two somewhat stifled 2021 tops.  Still many of us were still able to make through such a crazy-ass period.. as long as we were still HOLDing and even accumulating.. buying on the way down in 2022 could have still been a good thing, even for new entrants into bitcoin.. and yeah we know that even historically, there has been a lot of advantage, even in bitcoin, towards having more time in the market since sometimes that shorter time period in bitcoin would have had left ambiguities and even lower profit levels.


I am kind of with you, yet I think that there are ways to moderate our position.. as long as we are mostly emphasizing holding, and even a guy could be in his accumulation phase and moderately trade.. something like less than 10% of his bitcoin as an example, but there are other examples that might end up being reasonable.

Another thing is getting to overaccumulation status. 

If a guy has a goal of getting to an income of $80k per year, and he assesses sustainable withdrawal strategies, he can see that right now, as I type this post, merely 15.572 bitcoin is enough to sustain such withdrawal level of $80k per year into perpetuity (which includes a 7% per year increase in the dollar amount).

Now let's say that this same guy had prevously erroneously thought that he was going to need somewhere in the ballpark of 60 BTC to sustain such an income level, so he was working towards getting to 60BTC, yet he never made it to 60 BTC, and right now he merely has around 48 BTC, which is more than 3x higher than the 15.572 BTC that he is currently calculating to sustain such $80k per year income level forever.  Maybe the guy had started in bitcoin right around 10 years ago, so in the beginning his income was slightly lower than $30k per year, and now he is earning close to $60k per year, and so he knows that he can quit his work and he can start to draw upon his bitcoin at more than $80k per year, and he actually knows that he could draw more than $240k per year and still have his withdrawal sustainable. 

He has so much extra BTC, so he can afford to play  around with some of his extra BTC stash and still make sure that he does not lose any of his core bitcoin since he has more than 3x more than he needs and he had not been selling any BTC.. just erroneously thinking that he needed 60 BTC, yet now it is loud and clear that his 48 BTC is way more (3x than the quantity of BTC that he actually needs...and so he comes to realize that he was mistaken in his prior  thinking, and right now he realizes that he has way too much BTC. 

I am not even saying that the guy has to sell any of us BTC in order to get himself down to his original goals, yet I am saying that if the guy protects his stash, he has a lot of stash to work with and to still withdraw $80k or more per year, including increasing the dollar amount 7% each year.  It is nice to have options, and this guy has options.. a lot of options so long as he makes sure that he protects his BTC stash, whether or not he decides to sell some of it.. and it may well be cleaner for hime to sell portions of it (Whether $80k per year or more) than to enter into complicated relations of loaning out his BTC... yet he has loaning out portions of his BTC as one of his options too...


$1 million in 4-5 years is one of the possible scenarios, yet each of us should be attempting to prepare ourselves both financially and psychologically for a variety of scenarios.

There were so many folks in 2016 and early 2017 who continued to think that the top of the 2017 run would be around $5k at most, yet in that year when the BTC price went up to $19,666, there were some folks who held through all of that and maybe only sold a few BTC at various points along the way up, but they still had plenty of bitcoin, even when the BTC price got into the $17ks and above... so then some of those guys just held through much of that whole period, even if they might have had gone from 3x to 5x to 10x to 19x and beyond in the level of the BTC profits on paper. 

So there can be some advantages in regards to being prepared even for scenarios that are way beyond your expectations and to have a general plan regarding how to treat such BTC price move situations if they were to play out.

My own style has been to have various points along the way that I sell, yet with me, I had already proclaimed to have had gotten to overaccumulation status in 2014-ish.. and I had never fallen out of such overaccumulation status, so even if I might have had been wrong in my assessment of my won overaccumlation status, the BTC price ongoingly going up in the last 10-ish years has largely just bolstered that overaccumulation status, so I have already outlined a tentative plan past $1 million and even past $10 million, yet I ONLY have concrete sell orders set up to about $500k.. since from my current perspective, it seems a bit unrealistic to set up my BTC sell orders beyond $500k.. even though if the BTC price starts to get close to $250k, I will likely have to reconsider the extent to which it might be practical for me to set sell orders up higher than $500k..


Since you have been registered on the forum for less than a whole year, I am having some difficult times how your fucking around with plans to sell BTC at $125k is actually helpful to your long term treatment  of your bitcoin holdings, but yeah, sure there are a lot of guys who have screwed up their bitcoin journey by either trying to trade and/or selling too much BTC too soon.

Of course, you are free to do whatever you like, even dumb shit while imagining yourself as being smarter than everyone else.


Enabler!!!!!! 

 


My have times changed.

i recall you whining like a little baby.. was it in 2018, 2019 and 2020 and you were saying something like the BTC price is never going back to ATH. .and it is going to take years and blah blah blah..

And, now look at you...



The most chipper a guy could be, even accounting for our currently rapid 6%-ish dip from $124,517 to $117,201, and you are seemingly unfazed.


I will admit that my sustainable withdrawal theory could have its problems if BTC were to go into an infinite downward spiral, and I think that part of the plan would be to have had also to have had hedged with some other investments.. for those kinds of going to zero scenarios, that are not non-zero probabilities.

So, yeah.  It could be the case that I might need to consider if there might be some better ways to hedge my own bitcoin (or learn from you d_eddie), since surely even going to sub $20k, right now (which woudl be more than 60% below the current 200-WMA), would truly hurt and even cause considerations that bitcoin might be broken, even though my selling at that point would still be around 20x in profits.


Over the years, none of us likely get into bitcoin at any one price, and it might take us a bit of time to get started and also a bit of time to build up our holdings, even once we got started.  Surely with Richy_T, there were possibilities in getting some corn prior to the two price runs in 2013.

Even though I though that I mostly accumulated my position in 2014, I could not resist continuing to accumulate in 2015 and even a bit in to 2016...and maybe I slowed own in 2017, even though I still had some continued accumulation periods at later dates, even once in a while in recent times, I have some times that I decide to throw a bit of additional value into bitcoin, even though at the same time, when we have been in bitcoin for a while, we might not always know from our our funds are coming.. like if it is new money coming in or is it money that is just getting rolled over.. so for example selling and then buying back later.


You must be a tough old bastard if you think that you can accomplish all of that.