Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 16, 2025, 06:46:59 PM

Quote from: Makus on August 16, 2025, 06:58:33 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 16, 2025, 05:10:23 AM

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on August 15, 2025, 11:44:48 PM

This your analysis or point really shows how crazy the difference can be over time. Selling 28.5 BTC for a car back in 2016 might have felt smart at the time, but now, That same stack could have changed his whole life. It’s wild to think about. He traded something that could’ve made him a millionaire for a car that’s probably not even running anymore.

And to be also be honest with you, I also did the same thing, In my first year I sold a chunk of my Bitcoin, both the gains and some of my stash, and spent it on things that honestly didn’t even make much sense. At the time it felt good and it felt like the earth was just spinning around me alone, but looking back I wish I had known better. Once I really understood what long term holding means I was able to chill and stop making those quick decisions. It’s all about learning and growing right thou ......The hardest part is staying patient when the price goes up. People see green and want to take profits, but if you treat Bitcoin like long term savings it changes how you think.

Yep. I am not really sure how any of us can make sure that we have the right mindset because it can become quite tempting to sell and to take some profits, and the guy may have had sold the 28.5 bitcoin with around 2x profits.. so he was selling out of profits since maybe he bought the coins at $350 or less... then at the same time, he just took for granted the significance of his having had accumulated that many coins...

And currently we have guys who may have had bought a lot of coins in the $17k to $35k prices through 2022 and 2023, so they might not even realize how valuable it is merely to have had accumulated so many bitcoin at those prices, and so some of them were selling their bitcoin at around $100k, so they ended up getting 3x and 4x profits, but then they are never going to be able to accumulate the quantity of bitcoin that they were able to accumulate in 2022 and 2023 for the amount of dollars that they put into their investment.

We have seen that so many times in bitcoin, and guys are not able to come even close to buying back the quantity of coins that they ended up selling, and they don't realize how difficult it will be to get that quantity of coins in the future.

It is hard to see while we are in the midst of the price, and even our current prices could well end up being really good when it comes to a few years down the road, and even 5-10 years down the road, and right now we can accumulate as much bitcoin that we want at the current $117k-ish prices.

I've read comments like this consecutively. It seems the market dips and fluctuations isn't the only problem after all. After a beautiful long term holding plan some may feel fulfilled and go ahead to selling off their entire bitcoin stash with one order probably because they got a 2x or more. Which is why staying around those with the right mindset can also influence your decision to suit you the best way it can. If only they had stumbled upon your [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy may they would have understood how to make withdrawal following the 200WMA and the calculations for the amount to be withdrawn each month using a fair conservative rate. With a 6% conservative rate it would take 16 years for one to fully withdraw all the bitcoin in his stash. However this gives us a leveraged ability to also make extra profits if bitcoin continues soaring for this 4 cycle without regretting our decision of selling off some bitcoin unlike those who happen to sell everything or more than half the size of their bitcoin portfolio.

There is something wrong with your description that withdrawing bitcoin at a 6% per year rate would completely deplete the bitcoin in 16 years.

My underlying presumption is that any time that we are attempting to withdraw bitcoin in a sustainable way, then the withdrawal rate is sustainable in perpetuity, meaning that you can continue to withdraw at that same rate forever and ever and ever.

Sure, the size of your bitcoin stash will continue to go down, once you start to withdraw from it, yet its dollar value should be going up at a faster and larger rate than your withdrawals from it.

For example, I assert that right now, a person who wants to have an income of $80k per year perpetually into the future and even with a 7% increase in the fiat withdrawal rate, can have 15.547 BTC and start immediately to withdraw at $6,667 per month. Of course, if a guy is worried about having enough of a value cushion and or making any mistakes, then he could have a little extra BTC, so maybe to get started the guy has an extra 0.6817794 BTC ($80,000/$117,340), so that he withdraws the first year in advance and still has 15.547 BTC, so then when next year comes, he will see that he still has enough to withdraw an additional $85.6k (which is $80k X 1.07 to account for a 7% increase in the cost of living or a 7% decrease in the value of the dollar).

I am using the 200-WMA to calculate the value of the bitcoin and then withdrawing based 10% of the 200-WMA dollar value. Part of the purpose is to allow for more conservative withdrawals, including that the 200-WMA largely attempts to account for BTC bottom prices.

If you were to be withdrawing 6% per year based on the 200-WMA, the dollar value of your BTC is likely to continue to greatly outgrow your withdrawal rate, so you would not be running out of BTC, unless for some reason the 200-WMA stops going up at greater than 6% per year rates.. including that the lowest rate, so far in all of bitcoin's history has been a 200-WMA appreciation rate of about 20% per year for the period between about June 2022 and November 2023. You can see the actual historical numbers in my latest fuck you status chart, and you can also see the projected future 200-WMA values that may or may not end up being correct, but we can adjust our plans (such as reduce our withdrawal rate) if the 200-WMA ends up performing way lower than the projected amounts.

Ultimately each of us is responsible for our own value calculations to figure out how much BTC we need and what rate of withdrawal we can achieve if we are trying to make our withdrawal rate sustainable.. which means forever rather than a paltry 16 years.. You must have had gotten that 16 years from someplace else since I am not promoting any ideas to deplete our bitcoin principle, at least not within sustainable withdrawal systems, even if there might be other non-sustainable justifications to deplete our bitcoin based on age and/or health considerations or some other emergency situation that we might believes justifies depleting our bitcoin holdings.

Quote from: blackberrman on August 16, 2025, 08:57:40 AM

Quote from: Loyang on August 15, 2025, 10:07:20 AM

[edited out]

Determining the price of Bitcoin is a challenge, but as Bitcoin's popularity is increasing day by day, its demand has also increased many times over the past, and it continues to do so today. Bitcoin may increase its value in the future beyond our expectations, but we cannot guarantee it or deny it because it is likely to go up, because Bitcoin's limited supply. When Bitcoin's journey began in the past, many people may not have known about it, but at present, people in almost all regions are familiar with Bitcoin. The future of Bitcoin is bright,

In recent times more people have heard about bitcoin, yet hardly anyone has any clue about bitcoin, otherwise more people would own it.

Quote from: Hewlet on August 16, 2025, 02:00:28 PM

there is no point where we will talk about losses because you only loose when you sell below the point you bought you bitcoin and that can only happen when you are short term investor that is not patient enough to invest for the long term. even though it is true that one should invest based on his financial capacity, pushing yourself above the minor limit also stands help you reach your accumilation point fast enough.

You make reasonable points Hewlet, and it seems that somehow we have to get into a mindset that we are not getting too worked up about short term profits and/or losses, and surely many guys are likely going to be accumulating bitcoin for 4-10 years or more before they might even transition to a maintenance stage and then later transition to a stage where it might start to make sense in selling any bitcoin.

But, yeah, some guys get caught up upon shorter term profits and then they maybe just get such an urge to spend their bitcoin on something rather than getting to some kind of a sustainable withdrawal stage that largely signifies withdrawing slowly and over time rather than in big chunks.

Getting through the first whole cycle while continuing to buy bitcoin and not selling any bitcoin is likely a difficult task for many, and surely there could be some guys who might be able to front load their bitcoin investment, so they might feel that they don't need to accumulate for a whole cycle or more than a whole cycle, yet those folks with sufficient abilities to front load their bitcoin investment are not as common as the ones who likely need to accumulate bitcoin for 1 or 2 cycles before they strt to get to a point of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.

Quote from: EL MOHA on August 16, 2025, 03:07:48 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 16, 2025, 05:10:23 AM

Yep. I am not really sure how any of us can make sure that we have the right mindset because it can become quite tempting to sell and to take some profits, and the guy may have had sold the 28.5 bitcoin with around 2x profits.. so he was selling out of profits since maybe he bought the coins at $350 or less... then at the same time, he just took for granted the significance of his having had accumulated that many coins...

And currently we have guys who may have had bought a lot of coins in the $17k to $35k prices through 2022 and 2023, so they might not even realize how valuable it is merely to have had accumulated so many bitcoin at those prices, and so some of them were selling their bitcoin at around $100k, so they ended up getting 3x and 4x profits, but then they are never going to be able to accumulate the quantity of bitcoin that they were able to accumulate in 2022 and 2023 for the amount of dollars that they put into their investment.

We have seen that so many times in bitcoin, and guys are not able to come even close to buying back the quantity of coins that they ended up selling, and they don't realize how difficult it will be to get that quantity of coins in the future.

It is hard to see while we are in the midst of the price, and even our current prices could well end up being really good when it comes to a few years down the road, and even 5-10 years down the road, and right now we can accumulate as much bitcoin that we want at the current $117k-ish prices.

To jump into this discussion this is the exact reason why I think we need to actually time our taking of profit so well, I have recently been in argument multiple times that one shouldn’t be taking profit simply because they want to buy back because there is a tendency that bitcoin might not even re visit that price again. For example even if it is not realistic now bitcoin might get Above $200k this year and probably not visit this $117k again even if the dip comes that means people who sold just to buy Back might be getting lesser quantity with the price.

As for taking of profit, I think everyone will definitely have a sign of little regrets after taking profit because bitcoin will definitely continue to move up so the decision to take profit should be for something worth while not unnecessary spending

Even if you are largely correct in regards to your description of our current situation, there is something that is off about your assessment for the reasons why we are not selling bitcoin.

I think that the main reason that we are not selling bitcoin is because we are buying it, so if we are buying it, we will be buying all the way up to $200k and beyond if it goes to those prices this cycle, and then perhaps if there is a correction, we are continuing to buy it until we have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.

We cannot have any assurance of our being able to buy more bitcoin based on our selling it and expecting to buy back cheaper, whether we are selling now or at some later point down the road such as $200k and above.

Even you, EL MOHA (if we go by your forum registration date) seem to have ONLY a year and a half in bitcoin. I cannot imagine very many circumstances that a guy with only a year and a half in bitcoin would have gotten out of accumulation status... but sure, the more bitcoin you already accumulated could justify, perhaps, your stopping or slowing down of your accumulation of bitcoin. I suppose only you are in a position to really know and yeah if you screw up because you stop accumulating, then sure that is not as bad as selling too much too soon, but it could still be a problem in the event that you have not yet reached ovreraccumulation status. ONLY you are the one to figure out whether you are at overaccumulation status, and if you screw up your assessment, then that is on you.

I recall a person who had gotten into bitcoin around late 2014, and only bought a few thousand dollars in bitcoin even though the person had something close to $50k in his bank account... and he was largely skeptical of bitcoin...

The person might have gotten around 10 bitcoin with the first purchase for $4k (so maybe $400 per BTC), and then the person bought some more bitcoin in the next year or two between 2015 and 2016, and maybe got up to around 19 BTC... with maybe a total invested of less than $8k. The person had cashed out in bitcoin several times in 2017 and even in 2021, and perhaps the person cashed out around $150k worth of bitcoin in the various times cashing out, and perhaps sold a total of around 8 or 9 BTC. The rest of his bitcoin (maybe 8 BTC?) got hacked based on mistakes he made, and he lost the others (around 4 BTC) in some of the 2022 exchange fiascos because he was trying to earn yield (but he got back 0.8 BTC from the one that he lost 4 BTC), so maybe now he has less than 1 whole BTC.

it can be crazy what people do in terms of their whimpiness of buying bitcoin and their selling too much BTC too soon and then also their sloppy management of their bitcoin holdings. In some ways, I feel bad for the guy, yet in other ways his own sloppiness and reluctancies in learning how to self-custody and to not get greedy with coins were parts of the problem, even though overall he still made $150k (maybe $140k after subtracting costs) from his coins, and he still has around 0.8 BTC. Way less than he could have had, and surely he is not really in a position to earn money to replace those coins.

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on August 16, 2025, 04:18:10 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 16, 2025, 05:10:23 AM

[edited out]

Yeah , that is the tricky part with Bitcoin. People always think they are being smart locking in profits, but history keeps showing that most end up selling too soon. It is just human nature to want quick gains, but the tough part is realizing how much harder it will be to rebuild that same stack later when prices have already moved up.

The way I see it, if you were lucky enough to stack a good amount during 2022 and 2023 when prices were still in that 17k to 35k zone, that is a huge win already. Selling a chunk now for a 3x might feel good, but down the line those same coins could be worth life changing amounts. Even at 117k today, it might look high, but in 5 to 10 years this could be the price we wish we loaded up on. That is why holding and thinking long term usually beats trying to time the market.....

There should be a good feeling in our having had been able to accumulate some cheaper coins and to still have them in our bitcoin stack, yet over the years, we are likely going to have coins that have costs that are all over the place, and sure, if we get some chances to buy some coins cheaper, then we should do it, yet ongoingly we can never really know bitcoin's price direction, yet we can know that if we still don't have enough bitcoin, then from time to time (perhaps even every week?) we should be ongoingly, persistently, regularly, consistently and perhaps even aggressively buying bitcoin.

Each of us has to judge our bitcoin buying/accumulating approach and if we think that modifying our approach might be helpful from time to time, yet any of us can imagine that there were newbies to bitcoin in 2022 who might have had been waiting for price dips, and largely since 2022, the BTC price has gone up and up and up and up, and there hardly would have had been any justification in waiting rather than regularly buying bitcoin, even if the BTC price continues to go up.

Part of the issue regarding a guy who is regularly receiving an income is that he does not have the money until the money comes in, so even if a guy might have had been buying bitcoin as aggressively as he could have done in 2022 and 2023, he still cannot use the income that he received in 2024 and 2025 to retroactively buy bitcoin at 2022 and 2023 prices. He has to buy bitcoin as his money comes in, and sure many times, he wishes that he could earn more money, yet frequently there is ONLY so much a guy can do to either increase his income or to decrease his expenses, so he has to work with what he has as it comes in.

It is very crazy how clear everything looks in hindsight , but in the moment , we are trying to make the most of what you have . i think a lot of us have been there spending early gains thinking we are making the right move , only to look back , it is a learning curve. Once you start seeing Bitcoin as a long term wealth and not just fast money.
Yeah, you’re right time in the space matters, and I have still got a lot to learn. A year and a half is not much in Bitcoin terms, but i have been trying to soak up as much as I can and approach things with a long-term mindset. I hear you on over accumulation too it’s a tricky line to walk between stacking hard and knowing when you have done enough.
That story you shared is a heavy reminder that it’s not just about buying early it’s about how you manage what you have got. Hacks, yield chasing, bad decisions it really puts risk management into perspective. Definitely gives me more to think about.