I'd say that at least 70-80% premium is justified, imho.
I'm curious as to how you come to this conclusion. Their software business operates at a net loss and their non-Bitcoin assets are about 1% of their total asset value.
A couple of points (from less to more relevant):
1. They have a positive cash flow from software, I believe, otherwise they wouldn't be able to accumulate those $500mil in cash they started with.
2. Most importantly, imho, their price should reflect (at a discount) both their
future bitcoin buying and the future bitcoin price of the existing stack, similarly to how P/E of a growth company could be 50-100 when no one actually expects the company to catch up with that P/E in a 100 years, but much sooner, probably (because
earningearnings are expected to increase).
Here is is basically the same idea(s), but coming from someone you might trust:
https://youtu.be/ykLZ_xg6FB4?t=1688https://youtu.be/WIsV0QWyCYM?t=2308Interestingly, Adam Back thinks that 1.5X is the bottom of the range.
Therefore, if his thesis holds true, 1.
324X4X (currently) is VERY undervalued, indeed.
If 1.
34-3.5X is the range, then my "proposed" 1.7-1.8X is a very conservative upside.
What is happening now, imho, is Wall Street bringing MSTR "home" for a large buy for SP500 inclusion (it happened to Coinbase too, check the chart).
Imho, if MSTR "kisses" $300, then 6 mo after Sp500 inclusion, it may double.
I might even play this soonish.
Not an investment advice, just entertainment.