You are going to be tempted to spend from your bitcoin or to slow down in accumulating bitcoin merely because you might not have any other investments that had performed as well as bitcoin, and you can also identify a variety of ways that bitcoin your bitcoin stash can bring you a lot more comfort in the present, and sure maybe it would be nice to drive a car rather than a motorcycle and yeah, maybe you would rather have a 2025 or 2026 model rather than a 2019 model, and surely there can be temptations to treat yourself too soon... and I am not sure how guys can get themselves out of such a mindset, except maybe if they can think about ways to gamify their bitcoin buys and even if they focus on figuring out how to make more money so that they can buy more bitcoin, so sometimes they can figure out ways to place some emphasis on every month making sure that they had more bitcoin (satoshis) than they had the month before, and yeah, maybe it is better to be able to stack 100k satoshis in a month versus a couple thousand in order to make it meaningful.

I used to create a game out of my weekly buys.  I usually tended to create a budget for 6 months, and then divide that budget into 26 parts (1 part for each week), so each week I had a budget to buy bitcoin, and so sometimes I would try to have fun with that weekly buy amount and try to time the dip within the week, but at the same time, I made sure that I bought the whole amount by the end of the week, even if the price did not dip.  Another thing that I would do is to sometimes go beyond my weekly amount, so I would try to figure out if I could get more income for the week to add to my weekly allowance, and it was not always easy, so if I ended up having an additional $100 come in, then i would divide that into 2 parts.  $50 would go into bitcoin and the other $50 would go into my cash reserves (anticipating that the amount might be needed for expenses), since sometimes even having an extra $100 come in, I would just assume that there might have had been some costs that were involved in getting that extra $100 come in... and at some point after my next paycheck came in and my various balances were looked at, then sometimes I could also add whatever extra funds into my bitcoin buys.. so even though i had a weekly bitcoin buying budget, I would also have some other funds that might come available from time to time, and I tried to make a bit of a game out of the whole process of both building up my BTC and also making sure that I was not spending them - except spend and replace (including gifts to others (like $5  or $10) that would be treated like a spend and replace).  It kept me in the process of constantly reminding myself to buy bitcoin.


This second website that you list is a sustainable withdrawal tool designed by me and bitmover, and my intention is that such tool is used after reaching overaccumulation status rather than as a means to take short term profits or to trade... Getting through your BTC accumulation stage can take years and years, perhaps a cycle or two before your bitcoin holdings might get to a large enough size that it might become eligible for sustainable withdrawal.


Bitcoin investment it not guaranteed to be successful, so you should pick an investment amount that is comfortable for you, whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that feels comfortable to you.

Hopefully, while you are investing into bitcoin you will also attempt to learn about it, so that you might not be so nervous about your choice to regularly invest into it.  Your learning about bitcoin might cause you to increase your weekly investment amount.  Perhaps?  In the end, you are the person who has to figure out your balance of your bitcoin investment and other aspects of your personal situation (your 9 individual factors). .including there is a lot of value in strengthening your cashflow management systems and practices. especially if you choose to invest aggressively into bitcoin.


In order to make it through a whole bitcoin cycle there are going to be ups and downs, and there may also be extended periods in which the bitcoin are not in profits.  It seems to me that guys have to figure out how to both hold through those periods but also to figure out how to continue buying within their budget and within their personal circumstances, such as their psychology and their views of bitcoin as compared with other places to put their money.  Hopefully they are not so retarded as to get diverted into shitcoins, but sure some folks are so lost that they don't know the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins and at some point they might need to figure that out, especially if they had not already been focusing on bitcoin first...and of course, some folks are easily distracted into scams, and that is on them if they cannot figure out the value of focusing on bitcoin first.


You should be thinking about buying for 4-10 years or longer, unless you can front load your investment, so I am not sure what the fuck purpose you have constantly thinking about selling.. If you are so worried about selling or not selling, you are likely to get scared out of your investment, so you likely need to adjust your mindset to actual long term thinking and lose your focus on whether or not your holdings are profitable and think about accumulating for 4-10 years or more and at the same time learning about bitcoin so that you know how to talk about it and think about it.. .. also make sure that you learn about your cashflow management systems, so that you don't fuck up your building and maintaining various back up funds and otherways of making sure that you are investing into bitcoin within your discretionary money rather than money that you need to cover current or future expenses.


You think that you are going to be ready to start selling bitcoin 5 years from your beginning date Oshio-man?  Hopefully you can figure out how to express this better?  Unless you happen to be old or have some age consideration, it likely is not wise to be selling between 4-10 years.. ... but yeah, each person has to figure out these kinds of matters and whether he is a trader or an investor and then how is he going to treat his bitcoin once it starts to become a large portion of his net worth..   How is he going to manage it?  Sell it all?  You going to spend 5 years accumulating bitcoin and then just sell it all? Does that make sense?


You bring up some decently good points.

As we are accumulating bitcoin, we are likely going to start to feel richer and richer and richer, as we are exercising better and better cashflow management practices and also hopefully building and guarding our bitcoin since we are likely going to be having to make sure that we are not messing up our holdings.

Even if we might start to modify our bitcoin accumulation strategies and our cashflow management practices, we are likely making these modifications based on both ongoing learning, and also based on changes in the facts, which facts hopefully relate to our putting ourselves into a better and better financial place, and when are finances are build our good psychology will likely follow from that.


You think that a full cycle is enough Jostern.  For sure, I frequently suggest a minimum of a full cycle in bitcoin in order for what we are doing to be considered to be an investment rather than a trade, but still?  What conditions do you believe need to exist in order to sell bitcoin within a 4-10 year timeline?

I understood your point about potentially needing to continue to invest, even after 4 years, so in that regard, we might need to figure out how aggressive we had been able to be in the first cycle in order to determine if we might either be able to transition away from ongoing accumulating of bitcoin or if we might even need to increase our level of aggressiveness, perhaps based on our own improvements in our income with the passage of time, which sometimes happen to younger people who get better jobs, promotions and otherwise improve their incomes through the years... Some times older folks or maybe folks in bad circumstances might have troubles increasing their incomes, even if they know that they have something valuable (namely bitcoin) that they can invest into.


You are probably going to have fun staying poor with your trading approach to bitcoin, HistoLock.  Of course, you can do whatever you like, and hopefully not too many members follow your suggestions, especially if they see the value in investing in bitcoin for the long term, 4-10 years or longer.

It takes a long time to build up a bitcoin stash, but you are so worried about getting short-term dollar profits that you likely are not going to end up building a decently-sized bitcoin investment, even if you spend many years fucking around skimming off profits and then end up selling too much too soon because bitcoin price dynamics do not allow you to buy back cheaper than you sold.


You think that 2-3 years is enough time to be in bitcoin and call yourself an investor?  You seem to be trading rather than investing, even though you are criticizing others for having an even shorter timeline for their investment/trade. 

You likely don't believe in the idea of 4-10 years or longer, yet you still want to call yourself an investor even though it seems to me that you are trading. What are you going to do when you sell in 2-3 years?  Plan to buy back cheaper or just spend the profits?


Ultimately you likely need to work through the numbers, and if you think that 6% is going to overly deplete your bitcoin and dip into the principle, then you  might want to reduce the withdrawal rate until you believe that it reaches a point that the bitcoin is increasing in value (in terms of dollars) faster and higher than the amount that you are withdrawing.  Surely some guys are comfortable  to reduce their withdrawal rate or to stack more bitcoin so that they are at a higher accumulation level.

The idea of sustainable withdrawal is not new to bitcoin, and in traditional investments, there is typically the idea of withdrawing 4% per year, yet at the same time, the assets should on average be returning more than 4% per year in order to justify that withdrawal rate. There of course are going to be  ups and downs along the way, and surely in traditional investments guys sometimes with overly deplete their assets even when sticking with a 4% per year withdrawal rate, especially if they are not invested in assets that return at least 4% per year.

Historically bitcoin has been returning way north of more than 20% per year, and I personally had come out with formulas at first to follow the 4% withdrawal rate, and then I kept moving it up, and so I am quite comfortable that 10% per year is infinitely sustainable, yet of course, the future is not guaranteed, so part of my own rationale to use the 200-WMA to measure value is in order to attempt to be conservative with valuations.. and whether you end up using the 200-WMA or you figure out some way to measure the value of your bitcoin based on spot value, in the end, you should attempt to be comfortable that you are able to perpetually withdraw at the rate that you choose... especially if you are a young person at the time that you start your bitcoin withdrawals.

On the other hand, there are folks who purposefully want to deplete the principle of their investment, and there is nothing wrong with that if you have some reason that you want to deplete your bitcoin principle based on age or health considerations or perhaps you no longer believe in bitcoin, then you are free to make your choices in regards to depleting your bitcoin principle.... I personally think that guys are likely more empowered to withdraw within their limits and not to ever fall out of overaccumulation status, except maybe age and/or health considerations.. but surely others are not necessarily going to agree with my perspective, which is fine...especially since there are likely plenty of people who do not even understand the idea of getting to a status of overaccumulation, so all that they know is to spend their investment in a way to deplete its principle, and then they are left without any bitcoin, and they can do whatever they like, if they think that there is value in becoming a low coiner or a no coiner while they are still living. 

At the same time, there are plenty of folks (used-to-be coiners) who already regret selling too many of their bitcoin too soon... so there are a lot of folks who are likely going to continue to make those kinds of mistakes that cause them to become a low coiner or a no coiner way too soon in their lives.


I doubt any post about past happenings is going to be perfect, and surely many of us go through dilemmas in the process of accumulating bitcoin, and even wondering about if we are making the right choices in regards to where we put our time, energies and value.  There surely are no guarantees that even if we do everything perfectly in the present that we are going to be rewarded in the future.  Therefore we need to figure out our own ongoing investment amount in terms of what is reasonable for ourselves. 

I have a friend who in around mid-2021, I suggested to invest $100 per week into bitcoin and to do so for 4-10 years or longer.  That friend decided to invest only $50 (even though this friend surely had the resources to invest at least that amount if not more), and after a year or so the friend gave up and made several mistakes that could have had been avoided or lessened if he had remained focused on ongoingly buying and even studying into bitcoin in order to reinforce knowledge about bitcoin. 

Merely sticking with $100 per week, right now that person could have had invested around $21k into bitcoin and accumulated close to 0.6 BTC, which woud have had been a very good place to be.


The style of investing is likely to be different for an older investor versus a younger investor, and surely if the older person is considering bitcoin as an investment rather than a trade, then his timeline should be at least 4 years, and surely older people have more potential of something going wrong with their health than a younger person, even though young people can end up having health issues too.

In any event people invest  based on their own circumstances, and a 60 year old may or may not still be working, and surely a 60 year old does not have as much time for compounding to take place, yet those still would not be reasons not to invest in bitcoin whether he is investing from his salary or if he might be reallocating from other investments that he may have made through the years. 

A 60 year old investor who had been earning $30k per year might have had invested for 20-30 years or more and may have an investment portfolio that is already several hundred thousand dollars in value, and he might choose to invest 5% to 25% into bitcoin or some other amount that he believes is appropriate for his situation.  Maybe he owns real estate and other assets, and he might even have older parents who died and left him money and/or property and/or business assets. I would not write off a person because of age, even though there might be more and more limitations especially the older we get, including people in their 80s and older might already be having a lot of health issues, but if they have a lot of assets, it still might be practical for them to allocate some of their value into bitcoin, especially if they consider themselves as having an investment timeline that is 4 years or more... and of course, the older a person is the more difficult it might become to establish a 4-year or longer investment timeline.