Yes, you're of course correct, probably most of the movements would not really constitute a part of a "GDP". But even if 80% of the "sent coins" (excluding the change) would be covered by consolidations by service providers, mixing/coinjoins and other use cases, I would have still expected a lower value.

I'd love to see some stats about this but I haven't found any charts about consolidation transactions as I expect them to be the biggest group of "non-GDP transactions" due to their generally huge value and their efficient space usage. At mempool.space it seems that consolidations make up around a third of the transaction size. Judging by the incentives to move coins for a certain fee, I expect the impact in the "sent USD" to be a little bit higher. I'd estimate it at 50%.

Edit: Found that chart: https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-in-house-flow-total (sign in required, but free). It is only exchanges, so the consolidations of casinos and other service providers are not included. The numbers are however very high: about 150,000 BTC per day (between about 60,000 and 300,000). 150,000 per day would be 13,5 million coins per quarter, or about 1,5 billion USD, so that would make up a bit more than half of the total sent coins (around 60-65%). That indeed seems to be the main explanation for the high amount of sent coins per day.

Yes, you're of course correct, probably most of the movements would not really constitute a part of a "GDP". But even if 80% of the "sent coins" (excluding the change) would be covered by consolidations by service providers, mixing/coinjoins and other use cases, I would have still expected a lower value.

I'd love to see some stats about this but I haven't found any charts about consolidation transactions as I expect them to be the biggest group of "non-GDP transactions" due to their generally huge value and their efficient space usage. At mempool.space it seems that consolidations make up around a third of the transaction size. Judging by the incentives to move coins for a certain fee, I expect the impact in the "sent USD" to be a little bit higher. I'd estimate it at 50%.