Quote from: dumpsterhawk on August 19, 2025, 08:02:32 PM

Quote from: virasog on August 19, 2025, 05:59:22 PM

Quote from: free-bit.co.in on August 14, 2025, 02:30:05 PM

Quote from: icebar on August 12, 2025, 08:10:05 AM

Although nothing can be predicted, if the CPI and PPI data are released next week, which will affect the Fed's interest rate and there will be a new move in the market.

CPI was released 2 days ago and was lower than expected, which made the market optimistic, as 95% believe that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. That also helped stocks and bitcoin hit all-time highs, but with the PPI data just released and significantly higher than expected. Bitcoin reacted immediately again and dropped below $118k. This index will put the Fed in a difficult position and a rate cut will be difficult to happen next month when inflation is showing signs of rising again.

Just yesterday, I was convinced that bitcoin could hit $130k by August, but with the PPI just released I'm a little worried.

Indeed, the CPI data and PPI data are contradictory to each other and that is one of the reasons that the market seems to be in panic. However, if we see the Fed Interest Rates data at polymarket, still 71% of the votes are in favor of 25 bps decrease. 3% believe that there will be 50+ bps decrease (that is highly unlikely) and 26% believe that there will be no change. Even then the market price action suggest that no one has the clear direction on rate cuts and bitcoin next price movement. Sad

Why the sad face? The situation is still pretty good all things considering. A lot of votes are in favor of a small decrease which is significant because there is no precedent for it according to what happened this year. It is also possible that the market reacts negatively to the first cut but later responds more favorably. Sometimes it happens simply because something is different, not because a rate cut was a mistake.

The sad face was not because we are worried about the bitcoin dump. I know that we are in bull market and the dumps are regular in the bull market, and they recover quickly. The thing is that I find it difficult to predict the short term move for the Bitcoin and that makes life difficult for the day traders.

As you said yourself, interest rate cuts can dump the market unexpectedly in the short term or even pump because of this bullish news, making it difficult for future trade. Anyways, the spot trading with long-term investments is easy as we know that bitcoin is yet to make another all time high.