Look at uie pooie.

Not holding back.   

Ongoingly not refusing to bring culture to this here thread.

 


The UPpity seems to be in an ongoing reserve status, yet the reserved UPpity should not really be a problem.. it gives more normies an opportunity to jump on board, even though normies are likely not taking advantage of our reserved UPpity as much as they should be, and I get the sense that BIGGer players are absorbing coins to the extent that real coins are being sold.. and the are assuring that they actually have the coins that they believe that they are buying.

Are bags are still being pumped, and I would imagine that many of us who have been around these here parts since before 2021 and maybe we even accumulated most of our stash prior to 2021, then we likely have BTC stashes that are averaging less than $10k per coin.

I think my new talking point will be assume that many of us longer term players have average BTC prices that are less than $10k per coin, so even if we might not specify our coin stash, we are still doing pretty good whether our stash is in 12.4x profits or $11x profits, and surely even if we go back in the 9-ish x profits, we are still not necessarily in a bad place, even if our profit cushion is a bit more stifled than we would prefer.

I am not sure the odds of going back into the sub $100ks or even sub $106ks.. maybe less than 50% for the sub $100ks, and the odds for sub $106k might be slightly higher than 50%... and yeah, of course we likely to realize that many things can happen in the short term, even seemingly outrageous things.

I was thinking that so far with our current local low of $112,730, as I type.  We are ONLY about 9% from the ATH, and historically, we have surely experienced corrections that are way greater than 9% - even though historically many times the larger corrections were also coupled by larger UPpity breakouts - yet beggars cannot be choosers.

We already seem to have lots of seemingly BIG players coming into bitcoin and mostly pumping our bags, even though they couple their bag pumping with other ambiguous FUD, yet what else is new?   Historically, almost every pump that we have had in bitcoin has been coupled by ongoing FUD.. and most of the time FUD is not completely fantasy, in order for FUD to work it has to be somewhat believable to get some folks to sell their coins way sooner than they probably should be doing.. (i.e. shaking the weak-hands). 


Nice to have a secret weapon.


For sure I tend to be a lagging indicator, but still.  It is difficult to imagine the top being in, even if sub $100k is tested again.  Any top that is less than $180k is going to have me with a gappingly open mouth... .. that would also mean that the 200-WMA would end up moving up slower than otherwise anticipated.. yet in the end, if many of us have average cost that are less than $10k, I can still hardly imagine BTC prices going below the $200 WMA for very long, especially given our fairly whimpy top action, up until now.

There goes the plane, yacht and mansion that some of us were considering to be in the potential mix, and we might just have to choose one of the three, with the mansion likely holding its value better and having less maintenance costs.. and if that does not work then, just have to go back to hookers, lambos and blow.. could be worse.. .. and even the guys in the habit of chomping on Ramen with only a few ornamental ingredients surely might even be able to upgrade, even if the top happens to already be in, no?


Since I am an ongoing admitted lagging indicator, I probably would need something close to your $77k or maybe even going below $85k and staying there for a significant period of time of several days or maybe a week before I might start to think that we have gone from a bull market and transitioned into a bear market.. and yeah my track record on these matters (of ongoing pondering that the top is still not in) has not been very stellar... I usually don't end up calling the transition into a bear until 6 months or so after the top had already been in and has become clear to everyone else, except for me as the one of the last hold outs.. So far, that has happened to me in 2014, 2018 and 2022..  Why break a streak?


That is another thing.  We frequently have so much whining in spite of the reality, like you mentioned, the top was only 6 days ago, as I type this post.  We have the attention span of a gadfly, no? (or is it a fruit fly?)


Most of us here should recognize and appreciate that the BTC price does not go straight up, and almost no matter what, any correction (even relatively small ones of 8% to 12%) is filled with complaining and disgruntled-ness, even if there is not necessarily selling based on such DOWNity.