You are correct that it seems that from time to time your whining gets louder, and whining at all seems to be a sign of being overinvested.  Unless, it is a personality problem.  I don't have enough information, even though it is likely that our ways of dealing with matters carries over into other areas of our lives... like some people experience road rage, and others don't.


I am sure (in theory) that it made sense at the time that you wrote it.

Sometimes I go back and read through some of my posts, and I spend a considerable amount of time trying to figure out what I was meaning to say... Like sometimes a sentence started out with one idea but then transitioned into another idea that is not so closely related, so then the sentence does not make sense since there are two unrelated ideas but not really made in full.

Maybe the punchline is that we need to consider whether we are going to do something or not, and perhaps that the better thing is to not do anything if we do not retain some level of confidence about what the thing that we are going to do is going to be.

I tend to set my whole arrangement up so that I am not really thinking about what to do.. if the price goes up I sell and if the price goes down I buy, and sure sometimes I change the amounts or the increments (or the spread), but most of the time great changes in how the BTC price is moving does not materially affect the plan very much even though a large amount of movement in one direction or another might trigger me to make some tweaks.. and consolidation might also trigger me to make some tweaks.

When I was in my earlier bitcoin years.. Especially in my first three years, it was mostly about bitcoin accumulation, yet my enthusiasm for bitcoin accumulation became less and less since after the first year I was starting to fell like I had enough and by the second year I was thinking that I had more than enough, so then I transitioned into more of a maintenance stage.. ..so if any of us change what we do, we likely have to consider where we are at.

You were referring to potential existential threats to bitcoin, so from my view those kinds of speculative existential threats may well affect position size rather than whether or not to be in bitcoin, so if a guy is accumulating bitcoin, he might choose to accumulate less aggressively if he is worried about existential threats... even though some of the existential threats still allow for number go up, and ongoing efforts to plug bitcoin into KYC systems.. which might not be 100% successful anyhow, even if there are efforts and ongoing, persistent and even quasi-convincing scare tactics.


If some numbers are triggered, then it could open up the door to even lower numbers and maybe even a longer time to recover, but I am am not going to say, since we are not even very far time-wise or price-wise from the latest ATH of $124,517 from ONLY slight less than 8 days ago.

But yeah if $100k were to be tested, or even $107k, then we would need to break through higher numbers first... still our correction is ONLY around 10%, so it is not any kind of real BIG number either, not that it needs to be BIGGER.

By the way, my next buy orders in the lower $112ks still have not been filled..^** They were a few hundred from being filled, but then now they were less than $100 from being filled. and one of them within $12 $8 of being filled.. and surely I don't even want them to be filled, yet when they get so close to being filled, it transitions into a frustrating teaser since when it is that close, it is better for me if they fill rather than not fill... I have had a few times, where the price reverses on my order, so my order ends up getting partially filled.. sometimes 90% or so, and then other times less than 40% filled.  It is what it is, even though surely any of us who hold decent stacks of BTC would likely prefer up rather than not up... yet even if time passes, and I have some expenses that go beyond what I have in my bank accounts, I am not going to be opposed to taking them out of bitcoin.. whether it is closing lower buy orders or perhaps selling a bit of extra at current prices, whatever they may be.

** 2/3 of my lower $112k buy orders were filled, so far... which is a punishment to me for not posting my post in a more prompt timeline, since who needs edits.


You are talking about Degen traders, yet you are suggesting that you are not a degen trader since you have some idea of "exactly" where the "top" should be.  Go figure?


Let it flow.

And delete if you want.  I have already quoted you in full.. so history has already been made without having to go back to the way back machine to figure it out.


This time is different?

Of course.

Every time is a bit different.  The whole system is growing, and the participants have way larger money and even more financial tools to use to try to fuck around with it and find out.

They may or may not be successful in the ways that they are fucking around.


Sure. There are some BIG players who are way more curious about bitcoin with the passage of time, so it is causing new entrants, but it is also causing fear... and it is also not necessarily inspiring all of retail to come running to set up their various buying accounts so that they can get started buying, whether directly or indirectly through ETFs and stocks.


Same thing from the perspective of this here cat.

Bitcoin is an investment since it is a store of value, plus it is a whole hell of a lot of other things too, including but not limited to a means of payment or transacting or moving money and/or information around, and no one can stop you from moving it or even storing it... There are also likely quite a few other fancy things that can be done when we have triple validated accounting and various kinds of timely micropayments, and yeah of course, not everything needs to be done directly on bitcoin for it to be validated (periodically) back to the blockchain.


Price incentivizes participation and intervention and innovation, so the volatility does not incentivize everyone, and the price can still vary quite a bit, yet the incentives will continue to be there.. whether it is paying off directly to miners or other folks who are participating by directly or indirectly holding bitcoin or perhaps participating and/or building on other layers... even a large number of shitcoins are dependent on the success and security of bitcoin for them to play around with their quasi-valid kinds of activities...  yet bitcoin is the foundation, even the foundation for the scams to exist and to continue to scam.


I somewhat agree that if a lot of the large players have the coins that they claim to have, then surely, it can be hard to imagine how the BTC price can be going down with so many large entrance claiming to be coming in and buying coins.  But, 10% (so far) is not really much of a crash, even if the price did not go up very much in the last bump from $112k-ish to $124.5k-ish.

I don't really care too much if it crashes more or not.    What is the difference between 17x profits, 20x profits, 25x profits?  Not a whole lot.  Sure, it is better to be skimming off (if needed?) at the higher numbers, but they are all good (I am using $5k as a cost basis for this example and likely future examples to help to make it more relatable.. and sure some guys have bigger multiples and others have lower multiples).  

Perhaps I assuming investor rather than trader mentality?.. but you just said that you don't believe bitcoin is an investment?  What have you been doing holding onto it all of these years?  Sure maybe you sell some from time to time, and maybe you find various ways to buy things directly with it.. but still.. .. many of us are holding through the ups and then downs, and maybe skimming some off here and there... do we really expect that if we might be selling some 1 year, 2 years, 4 years, 6 years or some other amount of time from now that we will be selling below current prices?  Maybe we will, if something comes up suddenly, yet odds are that we will not.. We will either have cash that we had generated from other higher price points, or maybe we will still be at a higher price point at whatever of those future times that we might be wanting or needing to shave off some of the cornz...