Quote from: SamReomo on Today at 09:39:45 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 09:15:14 PM

~Snip~
For me, even a test of $100k or a drop below $100k would not be enough unless the BTC price started to be persistently staying at those levels or lower. Maybe i am too biased towards our being in a bull market, until we aren't.

I don't think that the price of Bitcoin is going to drop to those $80k's range again, the 100 week moving average will stay up and the bull run will continue. Well, surely if the Bitcoin's price drops even below $95k that will make many people worried but someone like you're who's not a weak hand may not get worried by such drop.

Even if it were to drop to $95k, by the time it gets there, then what am I or anyone else going to do? Probably just wait it out for a couple of years or however long that it takes to play out. Many of us have already been there and done that. So, either we had sold some on the way up, and if we did not sell enough then we might be feeling resentment.. yet if guys are still in their BTC accumulation stage, then they would not be (or should not be) selling anyhow... so they ride out the ups and the downs, and they are just continuing to buy if the price goes to those levels.

Surely, I cannot say what all guys do, because it can be quite stressful for some guys who had thought that the BTC price was going to certain price targets that they had, and so maybe they get upset because it did not make it to such price targets, and so they likely have to wait another couple of years for the price to go back up..

At the same time, there are some guys who are at such great overaccumulation status that it does not really matter so much, so then if some of the guys might have average costs per BTC that are $1k or lower, so that if the BTC price goes up or above $150k, thne they get 150x profits, but if the price is only $120k then they get 120x, and so it might not matter so much if they shave off a few BTC (or satoshis) at 110x or 95x or 80x in profits... and yeah, maybe they sell way less BTC during these kinds of correction periods and they might have already been selling small amounts of their BTC at various points on the way up... so sure they would have had preferred to not have to sell as many coins to get 150x from their sale rather than a meager 80x, but it still is not any kind of thing that makes them poor in any kind of meaningful (or life-shattering) kind of way, even if their preferences are not met as much as they would have had been with higher prices that were within what they had considered to have had been reasonable expectations.

Accordingly, I personally consider that $180k has decently high odds of playing out this cycle, but I am not going to be overly depressed if the top happens to be in at $124.5k. .In some sense, it is what it is, even though I had already had pretty strong beliefs that $180k or higher had decently good chances of being in the cards for this calendar year or maybe on the outside a couple of quarters into 2026... but who knows, right? I already have my sell orders tentatively set between $124.5k (well now $116k) and $500k..and yeah, if they don't happen this cycle, then they don't happen... I had my sell orders set up to $150k last cycle, and they did not fill either... so I did not really feel any need to set my sell orders higher than $150k until the BTC price came within about 50%, so then I set my sell orders from $150k to $500k in around mid-December.. but at the same time, I think I revised them around 3 times too.. in order to each time make them a wee bit more comfortable for my reflections on my own comfort levels.

Quote from: SamReomo on Today at 09:39:45 PM

To be honest, majority of the people will sell their Bitcoin if the price dips below $100k but surely the dip towards $100k won't be enough to break the belief of the ones who know Bitcoin.

Whether you have reached overaccumulation status or not, it seems a bad practice to sell on the way down rather than buying on the way down. Do you think that it is good to sell on the way down?

You have been registered here since August 2016, so sure it is possible that you have accumulated enough or more than enough bitcoin,.. but if you are going to sell any then you either would be selling on the way up or alternatively just shaving off small amounts when you need it or otherwise you could just employ a regular withdrawal strategy that would be time based, but it still should not be selling on the way down.

Just seems like fuzzy thinking to be selling after a 25% correction, since that may well result in opposite results that people should want to have.

I am pretty sure that I had some variation of this conversation with you earlier and you had been asserting that you had not gotten started accumulating bitcoin aggressively right away in your bitcoin journey, so you had a lagging start of your bitcoin accumulation, yet even if you started nearly a whole cycle later, then investing $100 per week between early 2020 and now, you would have had invested around $30k and you would have had accumulated right around 1.2 BTC. Which would not be a bad place to be... even though you might still want to continue to accumulate BTC rather than taking chances with selling and trying to buy back cheaper... when that is gambling and on average not necessarily going to get you more BTC.

Quote from: SamReomo on Today at 09:39:45 PM

Those who sell in fear will regret when Bitcoin peaks at $150k or $175k or even at $200k with some possibility. I'm fully sure the bull run isn't over yet and I'm pretty sure the history will repeat itself and in this cycle we might once again see the peak of Bitcoin in October-December of the year.

Even if you are recognizing others to be selling on the way down, that seems problematic to be suggesting that it is some kind of a normal behavior. Normies should be able to learn their way out of such behavior of selling on the way down.

Are you planning on selling on the way up between $150k and $200k and maybe higher? Will you still have BTC if the price goes to $300k? I anticipate that I will have more than 95% of the same stash that I have now if BTC prices go to $300k..and maybe that is not a good idea... but I already have a system that is comfortable for me, even though maybe these days I am considering sayin that my own profits might be in the ballpark of 22x right now and around 60x if we go to $300k (using $5k as my own personal average cost per BTC number). .. so whether it is 0.63BTC or some other size of stash, it still can be a nice place to be, even if there might be some expectations regarding how to manage our holdings through scenarios that could be either positive or negative from here, and sure maybe your base case is similar to mine, but your way of dealing with the scenario might be different from mine partly due to our stacking journey has been different and likely our finances and other personal factors are different, too.

Quote from: El duderino_ on Today at 09:53:36 PM

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 08:39:41 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on Today at 08:01:42 PM

[edited out]

A lot of them are just doing it for seeking comfort responses…. “No top is not in BC of…. Messages… that’s what there looking for.” Or just trying to be meaningful while being clueless etc….

Perhaps fake accounts, then.

Quote from: BTCETFInvestor on Today at 10:21:42 PM

Let's see if anyone is interested in snagging this image and posting it on some other website! Roll Eyes

Perhaps show something like that within the context of your various Ham operations (and set ups), then it might become a wee bit more convincing... perhaps?