Quote from: justdimin on August 23, 2025, 11:11:21 AM

There is one more thing you need to consider. The higher we go, the lesser the volatility could happen. So going from 1 dollar to 2 dollars was easy because it required maybe ten grand? Or even if a million dollars, that's still low. Compared to going from 100k to 200k, which would require hundreds of billions of dollars. Same 100% increase, and yet it requires so much more money going into bitcoin for it to happen.

This is true to some extent, but the relationship is less linear between "the money needed to move the price" and the current market cap. Everything depends on liquidity: the more liquid the markets are, the fuller are the order books, and the more money is needed to move the price.

Let's have an example. We have a spot price of $99,999 and an order book with the following sell orders: 1 BTC on $100,000 , 2 BTC on $101,000 (+1%), 3 BTC on $105,000 (+5%).

In another situation in the future, we have a spot price of $999,999 and sell orders: 0.02 BTC on 1,000,000, 0.03 on 1,010,000 (+1%) and 0.05 on 1,050,000 (+5%).

In this situation, it takes more US$ to move the price from 99,999$ to 105,000$ than from 999,999$ to 1,050,000. We need 6 BTC in total (around 600,000$) to move the price 5% in the first case, but only 0,1 BTC (100,000$) in the second case.

It is likely that the order books are "thicker" and the liquidity higher when the price is higher, but it is not guaranteed. In the altcoin world for example you have very liquid coins (which tend to be more stable) with a relatively low market cap and others with less liquidity, a higher market cap, and probability of stronger price swings. I can search for concrete examples if someone is interested.

Quote from: Mrbluntzy on Today at 06:56:04 PM

Some bitcoinist on youtube and twitter are stating that the market will become more volatile during the month of the last bullish move and what's going to cause the spike is because of FOMO, since the market volatility will be high, so many will have the FOMO and buy as the price continues to run up to the peak where the move is going to be exhausted, that's going to be in the last quarter of 2025.

Indeed it is possible that we see a significantly more volatile phase near the end of the bull market (if we're still in a bull market Wink

). But the charts above show that volatility in the early and mid bull markets was also much lower this time than in previous bull markets, so imo it's unlikely that the volatility peak will be higher than in 2021 or 2017.