I talk about base cases in regards to what I expect to be more likely upcoming BTC price dynamics to happen, so yeah on the extreme if the BTC price were to go straight down from here rather than some variation of up, then I might feel some regret based on the scenario being so greatly different thanfrom what I had expected, yet at the same time, I am tending to not take any large moves in regards to how I treat my bitcoin holdings based on these kinds ofmy BTC price expectation mattersexpectations.

So for example, if I had already established my bitcoin stash (mostly between 2014 and 2016), so then if in the beginning, starting from about mid-to-late 2015, I had been largely selling in the ballpark of 10% of themy BTC stash for every doubling of the BTC price (at the same time more granular within that) in the beginning.  From 2015 to present, yet the sales of BTC would have had happened at an increasingly reduced rate through nearly 9 doublings from $250 to present.. so maybe then the numbersquantity of BTC sales might lookhave had looked something like this below table (original table here):


0)   $250  (2015)                                    1X
1)    $500  (2015-2016)                           2X    10% shaving of the BTC stash
2)    $1,000    (2016-2017)        2X * 2 = 4X    9% shaving of the BTC stash
3)    $2,000  (2017)                  4X * 2 = 8X    8% shaving of the BTC stash
4)    $4,000  (2017-2020)          8X * 2 = 16X    7% shaving of the BTC stash
5)    $8,000   (2017-2020)        16X * 2 = 32X    6% shaving of the BTC stash
6)    $16,000  (2017-2022)       32X * 2 = 64X    5% shaving of the BTC stash
7)    $32,000  (2021-2023)      64X * 2 = 128X    4% shaving of the BTC stash
8 )    $64,000  (2021-2024)             128X * 2 = 256X    3% shaving of the BTC stash
9)    $128,000  (2025?)                    256X * 2 = 512X    2.5% shaving of the BTC stash
10)    $256,000  (2025?)                    512X * 2 = 1024X    2.25% shaving of the BTC stash
11)    $512,000  (2025?)                    1024X * 2 = 2048X    2% shaving of the BTC stash

You could figure out what the various numbers would look like with a starting BTC stash with its dollar value, and then the amount of dollars generated and the remaining value of the stash at each stage, so if you were to plug in 1020 BTC then you can see how itthat 20 BTC reduces over time, yet the dollar value goes up and the amount of dollars in storage go up (to the extent that they are not removed from the system and spent) (plugged into these formulas).

I am somewhat guestimatingHere in the formulas for whatever had been sold historically and what might be soldbelow table, our hypothetical guy started with 20 BTC when the BTC prices were $250 (an investment of $5k), so on the way up iffirst time that the BTC price were to go updoubled, he withdrew 10%, and then each subsequent time the BTC price doubled, he withdrew 7%, so then by the time the BTC [price is $128k, then he still has 10.83 BTC, his total BTC is valued at nearly $1.4 million, and he had already withdrawn about $97k.

There are similar numbers of buying back BTC on the way down, if the BTC price were to go down.  The buy backs are every $3,500, then every $3k, then every $2.5k, then every $2k etc etc etc..  all the way down to $70k and actually currently down to $31k.

IfI am somewhat guestimating the formulas for whatever BTC price goes sideways then mostly nothing happens (butI had been selling historically and what might end up getting sold on the BTC price does not tend to go sideways for very extended periods  of time).. So maybeway up if the BTC price is mostly going sideways then there may be time-based withdrawals rather than price-based withdrawalswere to the extent that the withdrawals outweigh accumulationgo up. 

There are similar numbers of buying back BTC on the way down, if the BTC price were to go down rather than up.  A guy like me could buy back every $3,500, then every $3k, then every $2.5k, then every $2k etc etc etc..  all the way down to $70k and actually currently my own buy orders go down to $31k.

If the BTC price goes sideways then mostly nothing happens (but the BTC price does not tend to go sideways for very extended periods  of time).. So maybe if the BTC price is mostly going sideways then there may be time-based withdrawals rather than price-based withdrawals to the extent that the withdrawals outweigh accumulation.  

I think that guys who are newer should be accumulating rather than withdrawing.. but yeah, maybe guys still have price-based plans too.., which might work out o.k. for some guys and others might need to be accumulating more bitcoin before starting to employ various withdrawal plans.

Yet, ultimately, yes, a plan for any of the possible BTC price directions, and guys should be attempting to tailor their plans (and their execution of such plans) to their own particular circumstances in accordance with whether they are in accumulation phase, maintenance phase or withdrawal phase, and the phases might sometimes overlap a bit without being completely pure phases.

By the way I just realize that I might not have had tailored my response as well to the situation that you describe since my point of view is that if a guy is still accumulating bitcoin in the $100k to 130k range, then I don't see how such a guy would be getting out of such accumulation even if the BTC price were to go into the $250k to $300k and above range.  Presumptively the guy had been accumulating BTC at earlier stages, so in your case since 2020, so surely he is going to have some coins that have cost bases as anywhere between $4,000 and $70k and even higher if you are still accumulating BTC in the $100k to $130k range.  There can be a bit of a dilemma to continue to accumulate if you have bitcoin from such a wide spectrum of prices.

I can imagine scenarios in which guys with not quite 6-ish years accumulating bitcoin who could have had front loaded their bitcoin sufficiently enough to consider themselves in some variation of overaccumulation status, even if they might still be buying on dips... and yeah, if a guy is in overaccumulation status, then frequently the price based sales would kick in at an earlier state than the time-based withdrawals... perhaps the devil is in the details regarding how much of an income any particular guy wants to get off of his bitcoin and if he had reached enough bitcoin to start to be able to generate such income, again going by BTC valuations using the 200-WMA rather than strictly spot price even though buys and sells of BTC are done at the spot price.



How could that be?  We have had pretty much UPpity since November 2022 to present, and yeah maybe we were not really convinced of the UPpity until mid or late 2023, but still.. UPpity and even getting a new ATH that was higher than $69k prior to the April 2024 halvening.  That's been pretty good... we then got the Trump pump in November that did not completely retrace all the way back down (even though it got close) and then we had a largely upward trickle in the past 4-ish months.. yeah, nothing overly spectacular... yet I doubt that the UPpity is over yet.  Don't we always have attempts to shake weak-hands?


You sound distracted by spot prices, and yeah spot price got as high as $69k, but that surely was not a sustainable price even though we did spend quite a bit of time in the $50k to $65k range, and sure there has been inflation in the past 4 years, perhaps around a doubling of some prices.., yet at the same time, BTC's 200-WMA has gone from $14,830 4 years ago on this date to $51,800 - a bit more than a tripling (right around 3.5x).  Sure it could have had been more, but it also could have had been less.  I have difficulties understanding where else you would have had put your value over the past 4 years.. even though in retrospect, there are always going to be certain places that we can see that might have done slightly better, yet you are coming off as a mere whiner to proclaim bitcoin is not doing good enough for you and your finances and your timeline.. as if king daddy were on any kind of an exact schedule.  


Yeah, the trading perspective looks all genius in retrospect.

And, retail remains retarded the extent to which they continue to fail/refuse to stack up on coins.  Retail is likely going to end up having to buy in at much greater prices than our current prices. But yeah, who knows for sure?  You can do what you like if you think that your coins are burning holes in your pockets or that you are going to be able to get them cheaper in the future or if you believe that there is some better risk-adjusted location to put your value.
 

The odds are probably at least greater than 60% that $124.5k is not the top.. and we might even have 35% or higher odds to reach $180k or higher this cycle.  You are letting a wee widdo 10% dip get you all depressed?


What is highly unlikely?  The odds are only 20%? or lower that we get over $200k?  And you are considering $150-$180k with similar numbers to me.. perhaps greater than 60%.    Perhaps part of your problem is that you had been historically assigning higher than 60% odds to such higher number scenarios.  I doubt that we can count on bitcoin price dynamics as if they were guaranteed.

There is an ongoing war going on that also includes the largest wealth transfer in history, and you think the status quo rich are not going to go down without  a bit of a fight? and some dancing, bobbing and weaving?

Sure it would be nice for BTC prices to go up faster and more directly, but how could anyone count on that kind of a guarantee?


That is for sure.  Hardly seems to be anything to whine about except: "I am not getting rich fast enough," which hardly seems like any kind of an adequate gripe.
 

Now you are talking.

I talk about base cases in regards to what I expect to be more likely price dynamics to happen, so yeah on the extreme if the BTC price were to go straight down from here rather than some variation of up, then I might feel some regret based on the scenario being so greatly different than expected, yet at the same time, I am tending to not take any large moves in regards to how I treat my bitcoin holdings based on these kinds of BTC price expectation matters.

So for example, if I had already established my bitcoin stash (mostly between 2014 and 2016), so then if I had been largely selling 10% of the BTC stash for every doubling (at the same time more granular) in the beginning, yet the sales of BTC at an increasingly reduced rate through nearly 9 doublings from $250 to present.. so maybe then the numbers might look something like this below table (original table here):


0)   $250  (2015)                                    1X
1)    $500  (2015-2016)                           2X   10% shaving of the stash
2)    $1,000    (2016-2017)        2X * 2 = 4X   9% shaving of the stash
3)    $2,000  (2017)                  4X * 2 = 8X   8% shaving of the stash
4)    $4,000  (2017-2020)          8X * 2 = 16X   7% shaving of the stash
5)    $8,000   (2017-2020)        16X * 2 = 32X   6% shaving of the stash
6)    $16,000  (2017-2022)       32X * 2 = 64X   5% shaving of the stash
7)    $32,000  (2021-2023)      64X * 2 = 128X   4% shaving of the stash
8 )    $64,000  (2021-2024)             128X * 2 = 256X   3% shaving of the stash
9)    $128,000  (2025?)                    256X * 2 = 512X   2.5% shaving of the stash
10)    $256,000  (2025?)                    512X * 2 = 1024X   2.25% shaving of the stash
11)    $512,000  (2025?)                    1024X * 2 = 2048X   2% shaving of the stash

You could figure out what the numbers look like, so if you were to plug in 10 BTC then you can see how it reduces over time, yet the dollar value goes up and the amount of dollars in storage go up (to the extent that they are not removed from the system and spent) (plugged into these formulas).

I am somewhat guestimating the formulas for whatever had been sold historically and what might be sold on the way up if the BTC price were to go up.

There are similar numbers of buying back BTC on the way down, if the BTC price were to go down.  The buy backs are every $3,500, then every $3k, then every $2.5k, then every $2k etc etc etc..  all the way down to $70k and actually currently down to $31k.

If the BTC price goes sideways then mostly nothing happens (but the BTC price does not tend to go sideways for very extended periods  of time).. So maybe if the BTC price is mostly going sideways then there may be time-based withdrawals rather than price-based withdrawals to the extent that the withdrawals outweigh accumulation. 

I think that guys who are newer should be accumulating rather than withdrawing.. but yeah, maybe guys still have price-based plans too.., which might work out o.k. for some guys and others might need to be accumulating more bitcoin before starting to employ various withdrawal plans.

Yet, ultimately, yes, a plan for any of the possible BTC price directions, and guys should be attempting to tailor their plans (and their execution of such plans) to their own particular circumstances in accordance with whether they are in accumulation phase, maintenance phase or withdrawal phase, and the phases might sometimes overlap a bit without being completely pure phases.

By the way I just realize that I might not have had tailored my response as well to the situation that you describe since my point of view is that if a guy is still accumulating bitcoin in the $100k to 130k range, then I don't see how such a guy would be getting out of such accumulation even if the BTC price were to go into the $250k to $300k and above range.  Presumptively the guy had been accumulating BTC at earlier stages, so in your case since 2020, so surely he is going to have some coins that have cost bases as anywhere between $4,000 and $70k and even higher if you are still accumulating BTC in the $100k to $130k range.  There can be a bit of a dilemma to continue to accumulate if you have bitcoin from such a wide spectrum of prices.

I can imagine scenarios in which guys with not quite 6-ish years accumulating bitcoin who could have had front loaded their bitcoin sufficiently enough to consider themselves in some variation of overaccumulation status, even if they might still be buying on dips... and yeah, if a guy is in overaccumulation status, then frequently the price based sales would kick in at an earlier state than the time-based withdrawals... perhaps the devil is in the details regarding how much of an income any particular guy wants to get off of his bitcoin and if he had reached enough bitcoin to start to be able to generate such income, again going by BTC valuations using the 200-WMA rather than strictly spot price even though buys and sells of BTC are done at the spot price.



How could that be?  We have had pretty much UPpity since November 2022 to present, and yeah maybe we were not really convinced of the UPpity until mid or late 2023, but still.. UPpity and even getting a new ATH that was higher than $69k prior to the April 2024 halvening.  That's been pretty good... we then got the Trump pump in November that did not completely retrace all the way back down (even though it got close) and then we had a largely upward trickle in the past 4-ish months.. yeah, nothing overly spectacular... yet I doubt that the UPpity is over yet.  Don't we always have attempts to shake weak-hands?


You sound distracted by spot prices, and yeah spot price got as high as $69k, but that surely was not a sustainable price even though we did spend quite a bit of time in the $50k to $65k range, and sure there has been inflation in the past 4 years, perhaps around a doubling of some prices.., yet at the same time, BTC's 200-WMA has gone from $14,830 4 years ago on this date to $51,800 - a bit more than a tripling (right around 3.5x).  Sure it could have had been more, but it also could have had been less.  I have difficulties understanding where else you would have had put your value over the past 4 years.. even though in retrospect, there are always going to be certain places that we can see that might have done slightly better, yet you are coming off as a mere whiner to proclaim bitcoin is not doing good enough for you and your finances and your timeline.. as if king daddy were on any kind of an exact schedule. 


Yeah, the trading perspective looks all genius in retrospect.

And, retail remains retarded the extent to which they continue to fail/refuse to stack up on coins.  Retail is likely going to end up having to buy in at much greater prices than our current prices. But yeah, who knows for sure?  You can do what you like if you think that your coins are burning holes in your pockets or that you are going to be able to get them cheaper in the future or if you believe that there is some better risk-adjusted location to put your value.
 

The odds are probably at least greater than 60% that $124.5k is not the top.. and we might even have 35% or higher odds to reach $180k or higher this cycle.  You are letting a wee widdo 10% dip get you all depressed?


What is highly unlikely?  The odds are only 20%? or lower that we get over $200k?  And you are considering $150-$180k with similar numbers to me.. perhaps greater than 60%.   Perhaps part of your problem is that you had been historically assigning higher than 60% odds to such higher number scenarios.  I doubt that we can count on bitcoin price dynamics as if they were guaranteed.

There is an ongoing war going on that also includes the largest wealth transfer in history, and you think the status quo rich are not going to go down without  a bit of a fight? and some dancing, bobbing and weaving?

Sure it would be nice for BTC prices to go up faster and more directly, but how could anyone count on that kind of a guarantee?


That is for sure.  Hardly seems to be anything to whine about except: "I am not getting rich fast enough," which hardly seems like any kind of an adequate gripe.
 

Now you are talking.