Quote from: LGD2Business on Today at 05:33:18 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 01:38:54 AM

How do you know that there will be a prolonged bear market? Sure, you are presuming some kind of a blow off top, and surely some kind of a blow off top would cause a prolonged winter to make more sense, but we still hae to see at what level our top reaches. If we reach only something in the range of $130k to $140k for our top, then do you still think a prolonged winter would be justified in those kinds of circumstances? I think that you ave a lot of presumptions in yout thinking, even if you might end up being correct with your overall sentiment of BTC price direction.

You know this too, everyone knows it. This cycle has an end. That's what I was talking about. I don't know if it will be 160k or higher. Don't you think this cycle will end this winter with one last ATH? Do you think we will be in a bull market next year or the year after?

Maybe we are arguing about semantics then?

I try not to make claims with high level of certainty, since the future is not guaranteed, yet I frequently like to suggest that bitcoin's future price performance is a product of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects.

Like I attempted to suggest, there can be variations in the forward pattern in such ways that each leg forward affects future legs, so it is difficult to attempt to call legs in advance of the leg that we are currently on, so surely there is a difference if the top is already in at $124,517 or maybe if the top ends up being in the $130k to $140k range or if the top ends up in the $170k to $190k range or perhaps if the top might end in the supra $250ks. Differeing tops contribute to differing levels of correction both in terms of intensity and time that the bottom might last.

Another difference is whether we end up topping the cycle in 2025 or one of the first couple of quarters in 2026 or if the top might come at some later date.

I am not narrowing in on one scenario even if I might consider some scenarios to be more likely than others, so I also would have some kind of a base case scenario, yet what can we get in a base case scenario? perhaps 40% odds at best for maybe the first leg, but then when we add another leg the odds have to go down, they are not going to continue to be 40% by the time we are describing the next leg, and so on and so on and so on.