So I was looking at charts, trying to convince myself everything is still on track. This is what I saw:
On this date in the 2021 bull year we were at $48,000.
We rose above $50,000 in early September to then put in a low of $40,000 in late September.
By late October we were over $65,000 and obviously hit the cycle high of $69,000 in early November.
That’s a 43% price rise from late September 2021 dip to cycle high of $69,000.
I don’t see why in any way, shape or form that the top is in at $124,000 in August.
A 43% price rise from here by early November would put us at $157,000.
Even though what you are saying sounds like it could be correct, yet there seems to be some kind of an error of reductionist thinking in there..
Like y has to follow x because in all of the earlier examples y has always followed x... and also I am not really a great fan of trying to lock king daddy within calendar year specifics, even though I understand you are just attempting to give some orientation and timeline framework.
Your point about down before up seems valid.. that we are currently in a down that does not seem to be enough to cause us to worry that we have been taken out of our ongoing up.. that part seems sufficiently reasonable...
In other words, our correction down to $108,717 (so far) has ONLY been about a 12.7% from the $124,517 top from a mere 13 days ago.. which likely should mean that there is no need to worry yet since there has been ongoing demand on the cornz and no bottoms are really falling out.. so the UP had not had enough time (or even distance) to play itself out.
Are the supposed sales from OGs really able to supply so many of the new entrants? I have my ongoing doubts about there being enough coins to supply so many of the ongoing new entrants. .. at the same time, I see no reason why even a retest of $100k or even sub $100k could end up being part of what we wished would not happen, but ends up happening... that's ONLY a 20% correction.. and of course, I would be buying all the way down, even though I prefer such a test to not happen.
[edited out]
It's quite possible that the market will continue to be boring for the coming weeks. But to think that we would top out around 157K is somewhat conservative.
With the recent Powell speak and the "2% inflation target" change, cuts coming and all other catalysts lining up. I feel that we should probably see a higher number.
Might not be as explosive as previous run ups, maybe more of a prolonged bullrun. Not sure we should count on a major crash of 60-80% either. Selling in Nov/Dec with intentions of buying back lower next year seems quite risky..
Time will tell. Will be an interesting time ahead. HODL ON.
Yep. I have frequently considered selling BTC with intentions of buying back cheaper to be problematic ways of thinking about BTC, even though it does sometimes end up working out for guys.
We are now in the annoying phase where everyone who knows you have bitcoin but doesn't themselves tells you how they would have sold at the top and been rich. Which they didn't because, as previously stated, they don't have bitcoin.
That seems to be a kind of never ending phase that happens more frequently during BTC price corrections, and sometimes can be annoying and difficult to shake such folks because corrections can sometimes take a bit of time to play out, and even when we get back into recovery, the no coiners are still failing to buy..
The low coiners, on the other hand, might also be trying to figure out when they might buy and they might start to buy some BTC on recovery, even though they likely are holding back and waiting for more dip.. and perhaps thinking about buying and selling at the same time, which ongoingly keeps them as a low coiner.. a person who could have had way more coin if he had not been fucking around with trying to over think and over strategize the matter.
We likely have a quite a few low coiners in this forum and in this thread who are ongoingly fighting with their low coiner status and wanting to have their cake and eat it too.. which I consider it to be problematic to sell any bitcoin with expectations of buying back cheaper and I also consider it problematic to
not be either ongoingly buying BTC or at least ongoingly buying BTC on dips if you already know that you don't have enough coins..
We are now in the annoying phase where everyone who knows you have bitcoin but doesn't themselves tells you how they would have sold at the top and been rich. Which they didn't because, as previously stated, they don't have bitcoin.
why oh why oh why didn’t we all sell at 124k
gosh darn it
Case in point.
Selling is not how a guy accumulates more bitcoin, especially if such guy is: 1) a no coiner, 2) a low coiner and/or 3) a person who knows he does not have enough or more than enough coins.
I also am not so crazy about guys who had actually reached overaccumulation status to sell BTC with expectations to buy back cheaper, yet if they are at overaccumulation status then by definition they have enough coins (or more than enough) to sell some of their coins without falling out of overaccumulation status. .but they still have to figure out how much coins they can sell without causing themselves to get knocked out of overaccumulation status...frequently not an easy assessment for gamblers to identify without their greed inadvertently getting in the way.
I am not proclaiming greed to be a bad thing. We are all likely motivated by some level of greed (self-interestedness, doing things in our own interest), yet we still likely have to ongoingly take active efforts to try to think more long term which may well help us in order to keep our greed somewhat harnessed.