Quote from: bitmover on August 26, 2025, 10:50:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 26, 2025, 05:02:08 PM

In some sense, extended downward scenarios for the BTC price relative to the 200-WMA seem more likely and sustainable as compared to extended upside scenarios, such as if we were to try to get to 1,400% again. Yet even 300% to 400% from today's 200-WMA would merely be prices of $155k to $207k, which surely seem within reach even if yeah the 200-WMA is currently going up right around $40 per day, so it is not like we would shoot up to get within that range in a day or two, it might take a few days or even a few weeks.

The lower number of 300% is surely bettable, yet I also don't see any reason to remove 1,400% from the tool, even though you might want to consider that the tool should be more granular and therefore more realistic in terms of numbers that you believe can get hit, such as less than 300%.. hahahahaha.. There is hardly any interesting action needing to be contemplated based on price if we might be considering ONLY such low levels of exuberance in bitcoin's price future. Sure the tool can still be helpful in terms of just attempting to figure out ways to value our portfolios and then to potentially draw upon our holdings based on such valuations of our BTC holdings.

Indeed, 150k (300%) is possible this year, but I really doubt about 400%.

1400% is completely off table imo (700k this year). The time of those scenarios has passed; bitcoin is not so small anymore...

Of course, the greater the extreme the lower the chances, and so initially you seemed to be saying that 300% to 400% were not possible even from now until 2030... so I was attempting to initially go with that.

The tool is not talking about when the price might get to any of the various levels, but instead helping to provide some guidelines in order to attempt to contextualize where we are at and how BIG of a deal it might be since both the spot price and the 200-WMA are continuously bouncing around, yet the 200-WMA is ongoingly seeming to go up, yet at some points in time going up faster than other times, yet if the gap between BTC's spot price and the 200-WMA gets too large, then surely having such tool helps to highlight the fact that the bigger the gap then the more significant the place that we are is.. .even if having such gap might only last for a day or two.

If we don't have the tool, we might lose our bearing and not recognize the significance of what we are seeing, especially if we are ONLY looking at the spot price moving around without having it within the context of how it compares with the 200-WMA.

People frequently seem to get lost by the spot price and fail to have grounding, which hopefully our tool helps to give us grounding while it is happening, yet our being able to use the tool to attempt to make historical comparisons.

Quote from: bitmover on August 26, 2025, 10:50:16 PM

I can only see a 1400% above 200WMA scenario if there was a kind of apocalypse, where US economy is destroyed or something like that, and the btc price spike would probably be more caused by USD downward movement than to a bitcoin upward movement. Probably BTC/EUR pair would remain at a much more stable price. All speculation....

I am going to assume that the dollar is going to remain the strongest of the various shitty fiat currencies, and sure there could be some extremes in which the dollar loses its dominance status amongst the various shitty fiat currencies, yet there is no reason for us to get distracted by those various scenarios and to overly complicate our attempts to use the tool. Sure, we can take the matter of the debasement of the dollar into account, yet by now we should already know that bitcoin's changes in valuations is not merely a product of the dollars devaluation but also due to the power of various fundamental bitcoin attributes.

Bitcoin is not a mature asset, and we should not be trying to act as if it is, and so part of bitcoin's ongoing appreciation and its expected future appreciation has to do with its ongoing growth and adoption.. which might sometimes be difficult to recognize and/or appreciate in shorter time periods.. and surely any time we could end up spiraliing into some outrageous scenario that might not even only be a product of Armageddon, whether we are talking about supra 1,400% or some variation that is higher than 400% but lower than 1,400%. The tool hopefully can help us to figure out how to deal with any of the variations on those scenarios without necessarily contribute to our panicking and/or not knowing what to do about such scenarios if they were to occur short of Armageddon.

Quote from: bitmover on August 26, 2025, 10:50:16 PM

Anyway, just holding bitcoin forever won't make me happy. Spending money is important. I recently read Die With Zero, which has nice ideas about how to spend money in your life.

We already argued about this previously. Are you moving away from the earlier topic?

Earlier you stated that 300% to 400% would never occur, yet you seemed to amend to the possibility of 300%, but not 400%..

Ok. fair enough.. So are you saying that 400% will never occur prior to 2031, so then we can bet on it? I hate to take your money, but it would be good to now how serious you are about your statements in regards to your thoughts that 400% will never happen, and then in the context of wanting to die with zero, you end up selling the remaining of whatever bitcoin that you have at 375%, and then at that point the BTC price might continue to go up to reach higher numbers.

Even in 2021, we had something in the ballpark of 470%, and that was thought to be a fairly whimpy top of the cycle. Note the BTC spot/200-WMA gap in early on April 14, 2021 when BTC prices reached $64.4k-ish was higher than the BTC spot/200-WMA gap in late 2021 when the BTC price reached $69k.

Quote from: bitmover on August 26, 2025, 10:50:16 PM

This is also one reason for our tool to exist. And for today, it is recommending taking off 5 months in advance, in addition to the current month withdrawal.

Of course, people can use the tool however they want, yet if the BTC price reaches between 200% and 300% higher than the 200-WMA, and a person cashes out 5 months in advance, then where does that put him? He either cannot cash out for 5 months or he just stays cashed out for those 5 months in advance by taking an additional month each month until the BTC price reaches the next threshold, which is the 300% to 400% range.

If such person is already in overaccumulation status, then hopefully whatever he is doing in regards to his sales is not knocking him out of overaccumulation status.

Yeah, sure it is up to each person to figure out when they have reached overaccumulation status, but you don't seem to be using the tool in that kind of a way, and I cannot stop you from doing it, even though I think that you are likely selling too much too soon if you are selling bitcoin to buy back more and you have not yet reached overaccumulation status and so sure maybe we could disagree about whether a person is in overaccumulation status yet or not, and so your interpretation of the tool might come to differing outcomes than I had expected for a guy to not fall below overaccumulation status, yet if you are using the tool prior to reaching overaccumulation status, then we are just coming to a different interpretation regarding how the tool should be used.. There is already attempts to explain these kinds of ideas, yet there can be interpretations that end up merely trying to use the tool to try to trade better...

Quote from: bitmover on August 26, 2025, 10:50:16 PM

We argued about these ideas previously, and I am not against the idea of dying with zero, even though I think that it is better to set up systems of sustainable withdrawal.. so those are philosopical differences, since I would not necessarily agree with the idea of depleting one's principle until perhaps later in life.. which surely could end up in a lot of cases of not dying with zero.

Quote from: Richy_T on August 26, 2025, 11:05:29 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 26, 2025, 08:00:03 PM

A sad thing was that we could have had been screaming our heads off for guys to buy during that period, and they don't listen.

I have long since stopped advising people to buy Bitcoin. Outwardly, I'll say because it's a big risk and people should do their own research for themselves (which is true) but inwardly, it's because I know they'll find a way to fuck it up and blame me. I sold a friend a small sliver of coin and he immediately used it to buy some "red hot" shitcoin. He'd be up about 10x now if he'd just sat on it.

I understand that a certain level of trying beyond just saying.. you should buy bitcoin becomes repetitive if you might have already said it in the past and they aren't asking questions.

Part of the problem is that many of these guys from previous bitcoin discussions will bring it up again. Instead of saying, "how is that bitcoin thing doing?" they will say,. " I should have had listened to you the first time when you first said something."

Frequently, I will say that my advice or suggestion is the same - just get started, even if it is ONLY $100 per week.. whatever, it is better to get started and to have some bitcoin rather than not having any and continuing to presume that it is too late.

They will say something like.. "yeah, yeah, yeah... This is not a good time." As if they have any fucking clue about when might be a good time, and that ultimately they do not want to take action to get started, since they also might have spend more time studying and looking into bitcoin, and they continue to be scared about it, and no one wants to buy something that continues to go down and does not come back up merely because they bought at the top without realizing that they were buying at the top.. so without really knowing anything, they continue to believe that the BTC price looks toppie, which is true.. Bitcoin is likely going to always look toppie, all the way to $1 million and then to $10 million and beyond, it is going to continue to look toppie... but the only way to actually prepare for UP is to buy some rather than staying on zero and refusing to get off zero.