Depeting the refining capacity of Ruzzia, one (big) step at the time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGtcZM339uE~
Yep. Russia is being pushed to the point where they will have to start using Oreshnik soon. And they are just about ready, since mass manufacturing of Oreshnik has already started.
And the Burevestnik nuclear engine equipped cruise missile is just about ready to go into mass production... can stay in the air for many days without refueling; can fly at 300 feet or less; low altitude makes it virtually untrackable.
With a military ally like China, if the war has to really start with NATO and Europe, Europe is finished. Moscow considers that WW3 has already literally started. When Russia moves, nothing will stop her except wholesale destruction of the West.

Again your obsession with the Oreshnik. Again, this is an ICBM that cannot carry conventional load, it costs 18 million a pop and is technology from the 60´s and offeres ZERO effectivity in a conventional war.
If Ruzzia thought it would be convenient to use, it would have already been used.
Look at car engines. They use the Otto Cycle, developed by Nikolaus Otto in 1876. We still use it today because it works, even though we have made some modifications. And it's a lot older than a 1960's ICBM. Those ICBM's work.

Again, they do work for their intended purpose: carry a few MIRVS with either decoys or nukes. They do not carry conventional warheads and their accuracy is 500 meters radius - which is useless for conventional war.
So either Ruzzia goes nuclear - which would be an escalation that would not be in their benefit, or they do another fireworks show at 18 million cost.
All this BA is part of the Ruzzian, US, China and Ukranian calculations since the start of the war. Nothing that was not known since forever - I mean, to most people not to you probably.