One way to assuredly lose money on an otherwise sure thing.  Use leverage.

If you have 50x leverage, then don't you need only a 2% drop to lose everything?  That's why you are using a stop loss.. but still.

I imagine that there are guys who win, from time to time, using leverage.

I know goldkingcoiner is not even talking about his accidental win on his 80x leverage.. which could mean that sooner or later he ended up giving it all back.  There may be ways to play them smartly perhaps.

If you entered the 50x leverage at $111k, then a 2% drop would be slightly below $109k .. so is that how you do it?  You have a stop loss at $109k, but you have already lost most of your money by then, no?  Of course, if it goes up from th point of your entry, then that works out pretty good.. so if you were betting a whole bitcoin and it went up to $115k and you cashed out, that would be $4k x 50 = $200k.  I understand that you are not playing with those kinds of numbers, and probably for good reasons guys get nervous when they enter positions with really high leverage.. anything beyond 5x seems very difficult to manage.


You might be responding to my d_eddie response or maybe some other part(s) of my above-linked post.

I have always considered you as a more conservative and measured kind of bitcoiner, since you have always been talking about other things besides bitcoin, so you are likely ongoingly hedging with other investments besides bitcoin, yet most likely whatever you put into bitcoin and kept in bitcoin (and perhaps continued to put into bitcoin from time to time) greatly outperformed your other investments, even though sometimes you whine about bitcoin not performing good enough, and sure I will agree with you that on the short term, we have gone through quite a few periods in which it seems that bitcoin is underperforming relative to other assets, yet if you continued to largely hold onto your bitcoin, then whatever shorter periods of seeming underperformance ended up working itself out in favor of dee cornz.

I really have difficulties measuring bitcoin's performance from the spot price, since how are you going to decide from where to start?  Of course, the 200-WMA gives us pretty solid numbers even though you might consider it not fair to be averaging out nearly 4 years worth of data, but still we buy and sell from spot price, and the 200-WMA gives us a pretty decent idea where we are at relative to bottom-ish territory, even if maybe there are some future periods that end up getting worse BTC price performance than what we had between June 2022 and October 2023.  I am not even going to presume that worse performance is not in the cards...

yet we can also have tools in place to deal with that.. so what shits are we going to give if our average cost per BTC might be quite a bit below $10k, yet we end up having periods of BTC price performance in which it spends extended periods of 20-30% below the 200-WMA and maybe even the 200-WMA ends up having some periods of negative performance... Of course, it is possible, but if our average cost per BTC is way less than 1/5 the current price, then we should not end up getting overly anxious merely because the BTC price is spending considerable time below the 200-WMA.. and yeah, maybe even at some point there may be information that bitcoin's investment thesis is breaking, so even if we get out.. we would still be around 5x in profits.. unless there is some catastrophic break and the break in the BTC price ends up playing out faster than we are  able to cash out in profits.. which takes us back to the idea of not investing more than we can afford to lose.

Ultimately bitcoin's future is filled with enough unknownunknowns that we ongoingly have to make sure we adjust our BTC position size so that we are financially and psychologically prepared for a variety of scenarios, even extreme scenarios that could be to the upside or the downside.

What is the worry right now?  We might possibly go below $100k before touching $130k?  I am not sure if that is bettable, but there could be some version of those kinds of propositions that are bettable.

We are also still in bull season, until we aren't, and hopefully, I am not one of the last ones to realize when we are actually no longer in bull season... It kind of bothers me, even though I have not really suffered too much financially and/or psychologically from my seeming greater than usual lagging indicator in my historical attempts at bitcoin price calling (ie when we are out of the bull market).

One way to assuredly lose money on an otherwise sure thing.  Use leverage.

If you have 50x leverage, then don't you need only a 2% drop to lose everything?  That's why you are using a stop loss.. but still.

I imagine that there are guys who win, from time to time, using leverage.

I know goldkingcoiner is not even talking about his accidental win on his 80x leverage.. which could mean that sooner or later he ended up giving it all back.  There may be ways to play them smartly perhaps.

If you entered the 50x leverage at $111k, then a 2% drop would be slightly below $109k .. so is that how you do it?  You have a stop loss at $109k, but you have already lost most of your money by then, no?  Of course, if it goes up from th point of your entry, then that works out pretty good.. so if you were betting a whole bitcoin and it went up to $115k and you cashed out, that would be $4k x 50 = $200k.  I understand that you are not playing with those kinds of numbers, and probably for good reasons guys get nervous when they enter positions with really high leverage.. anything beyond 5x seems very difficult to manage.


You might be responding to my d_eddie response or maybe some other part(s) of my above-linked post.

I have always considered you as a more conservative and measured kind of bitcoiner, since you have always been talking about other things besides bitcoin, so you are likely ongoingly hedging with other investments besides bitcoin, yet most likely whatever you put into bitcoin and kept in bitcoin (and perhaps continued to put into bitcoin from time to time) greatly outperformed your other investments, even though sometimes you whine about bitcoin not performing good enough, and sure I will agree with you that on the short term, we have gone through quite a few periods in which it seems that bitcoin is underperforming relative to other assets, yet if you continued to largely hold onto your bitcoin, then whatever shorter periods of seeming underperformance ended up working itself out in favor of dee cornz.

I really have difficulties measuring bitcoin's performance from the spot price, since how are you going to decide from where to start?  Of course, the 200-WMA gives us pretty solid numbers even though you might consider it not fair to be averaging out nearly 4 years worth of data, but still we buy and sell from spot price, and the 200-WMA gives us a pretty decent idea where we are at relative to bottom-ish territory, even if maybe there are some future periods that end up getting worse BTC price performance than what we had between June 2022 and October 2023.  I am not even going to presume that worse performance is not in the cards...

yet we can also have tools in place to deal with that.. so what shits are we going to give if our average cost per BTC might be quite a bit below $10k, yet we end up having periods of BTC price performance in which it spends extended periods of 20-30% below the 200-WMA and maybe even the 200-WMA ends up having some periods of negative performance... Of course, it is possible, but if our average cost per BTC is way less than 1/5 the current price, then we should not end up getting overly anxious merely because the BTC price is spending considerable time below the 200-WMA.. and yeah, maybe even at some point there may be information that bitcoin's investment thesis is breaking, so even if we get out.. we would still be around 5x in profits.. unless there is some catastrophic break and the break in the BTC price ends up playing out faster than we are  able to cash out in profits.. which takes us back to the idea of not investing more than we can afford to lose.

Ultimately bitcoin's future is enough unknown that we ongoingly have to make sure we adjust our position size so that we are prepared for a variety of scenarios, even extreme scenarios.