Quote from: dropt on May 06, 2014, 02:40:35 PM

Quote from: ericisback on May 06, 2014, 02:01:14 PM

Quote from: eleuthria on May 06, 2014, 12:45:05 AM

2) There have been no backend changes for ScryptGuild. There have been no changes to the backends period in the last 9 months. 6 of those months were positive on luck. The last 2 were not. The 9th month isn't available since luck only started being tracked across multiple difficulties 8 months ago (prior to that it only showed the most recent shifts of the current difficulty).

eleuthria, you should just eliminate the luck graph on the site entirely. Even though the metric is measurable, it cannot be acted upon, so, in this instance, the measurement is not valuable. And if I have to read the "bad luck" posts for 4 more months (until we are even again), I'm going to kill myself.

P.S. Yes, I do know that the 4 month number is not really the guaranteed length of time it will take until the variances work themselves out - it was a joke.

Bad luck graph or not. It's pretty fucking obvious when there's a continual stream of >6 blocks found per shift when historically it's been >9.

BTC Guild is smaller (relative to network size) than it was months ago. The days of a public facing pool being 25%+ of the network are over, unless they have an obscenely large private farm propping it up. Private mining entities now make up ~40% of the network, leaving only 60% left to fight over. As a result, shifts are no longer setup around 15-20x difficulty, they're setup to be roughly 10x difficulty. This means bad luck shifts are no longer 8-10 blocks. A neutral shift right now is 8.75 blocks (meaning 9 blocks or more in a shift is positive luck).