Quote from: Die_empty on August 29, 2025, 03:51:51 PM

Crude oil and gas remain relevant mineral resources but we are gradually seeing another dimension of the struggle for resources. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has been associated with the quest for these rare earth metals. Other struggles that could have been related to the drive for these raw materials are the coup in some part of West Africa, Donald Trump's intention for the US to take over Greenland and the US support deal with Ukraine.

I became interested in this topic because of the current happenings in my area. We started seeing an increase in the population of foreigners (mainly Asians) around our community. Most of them are engaging in illegal mining of materials that we don't know. Some of them were arrested and we later discovered that they were mining some rare earth metals.

Rare earths are a group of 17 elements, including 15 silvery-white metals called lanthanides, or lanthanoids, plus scandium and yttrium. The rare minerals can be divided into strategic and critical. According to the European Union there are 34 critical raw materials of which 17 are designated strategic.

It is strategic when it is important to the transition to green technologies as well as for the defense and aerospace industry. These materials are highly needed because of a growing global demand, driven by the decarbonisation of economies.

Source
34 critical raw materials (17 of which are considered as strategic raw materials (dark yellow))

The fight for these materials is fierce between the world powers because they are essential for the production LCD screens, lasers, headphones, microphones, smartphones, space rockets, satellites, defense, and even in some modern cancer treatment drugs. These metals are China's most powerful bargaining power in the tariff negotiation with the US. You can find more of the uses of these rare earth metals here.

The world today is changing rapidly, and keeping up with these changes is equally crucial. In 1992, when China was just opening up and modernizing its industry, Deng Xiaoping said, "The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths." This phrase has since become a new "geopolitical doctrine" for China. At the time, the world was still preoccupied with oil as an instrument of power (OPEC, the 1970s oil crisis). But Deng had already foreseen that rare earths would become the new oil of the 21st century.

China immediately took strategic action by investing heavily in rare earth exploration and production. It built and monopolized refining, making the world dependent on China. It established a selective export policy, using rare earths as a diplomatic bargaining chip, and integrated industries: rare earth products went directly into domestic manufacturing (technology, energy, military). Today, more than 80% of the world's rare earth supply is still processed in China. Thanks to Deng Xiaoping's long-term vision, China has become the gatekeeper of today's most strategic minerals. In the future, there will be a shift from oil diplomacy to rare earth diplomacy, born of the transformation of the global economic structure. The primary driver of this shift is technological progress. Rare earth minerals such as lithium, cobalt, neodymium, and dysprosium are at the heart of electric batteries, solar panels, autonomous vehicles, even AI and military technology. Without them, the transition to a "green economy" would be impossible.

Countries that once dominated the OPEC region now face competition from countries possessing critical mineral reserves. China, for example, controls more than 60% of global rare earth production and over 80% of its refining. This gives Beijing a "geopolitical weapon" that is equal to, if not more strategic than, oil in the past. Developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are now the focus of attention. Like Saudi Arabia in the oil era, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia have become new hotspots due to their abundant cobalt, lithium, and nickel reserves. Rare earth minerals are not only crucial to the economy but also to the defense industry. Missiles, fighter jets, satellites, and radar all require these materials. Therefore, control of critical minerals becomes a direct part of national security strategy.

Let's see if these countries will suffer a more updated and upgraded version of the resource curse in the future, where countries with reserves can become trapped in foreign exploitation without sustainable domestic development. In the next 10–20 years, global diplomacy will likely shift toward a mineral cartelization, similar to OPEC, but focused on lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. China will be the rare earth hegemon, while the US and Europe will be challengers. Developing countries will become the arena for competition; whoever can escape the raw material supply trap will rise to become a major geopolitical player. In other words, the global power map will be determined not by "who has the most oil wells," but by who can control the rare earth mineral supply chain that underpins future technologies. "Whoever controls rare earth minerals controls the future of global technology and energy." Chinese President-for-Life Xi Jing Ping firmly holds control of these rare earth minerals, just as America maintains the dollar. These rare earth minerals serve as China's secret weapon to prevent America from overtaking them, as the majority of America's rare earth mineral needs are supplied by China.

Quote from: coupable on August 29, 2025, 09:11:46 PM

I agree with you that the goals of Russia invading Ukraine wasn't mainly for rare earth metals, but this reason became essential later in negotation file with USA and Europe. Russia first goal is to forbid NATO from setting power army in its frontieres after Ukraine showed its ambitions to join the military ally with NATO. Putin decided to invade Cremea before invading all other regions to create like a safe armyless land between the two countries. Usually there is no single reason to start a war.

The argument between Trump and Zelensky during his visit to America, as well as Trump's pressure on Zelensky to end the war, stemmed from Ukraine's inability to pay the war costs incurred by the United States. The rare earth mineral map Zelensky provided was based on Soviet-era mineral data and has not been verified by modern means. Most of Ukraine's rare earth reserves are based on Soviet-era geological surveys and have not been revalidated since Ukraine's independence. The majority of deposits, including those containing rare earths and lithium, are located in areas under Russian control. Zelensky offered Trump a winning plan, while the reality is that rare earth reserves are virtually non-existent. These reserves may not be economically viable due to high extraction costs and the need for advanced refining technology. Therefore, none of Ukraine's rare earth reserves are internationally recognized as economically viable.