Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 02/09/2025, 16:07:31 UTC
⭐ Merited by vapourminer (1)
First off, thanks, Jay. I really appreciate you breaking it down like that...

My situation is a bit different than most. I have not bought any corn since before this account was created. I have never had a real job. The "" was because of that. From very early on, I was a hustler. I remember my first real hustle was in grade school, selling candy to the younger kids while giving away the profits to the older kids to get to ride at the back of the bus. I was also the product of a broken home and severe drug addictions. Statistically speaking, I should be under a bridge sucking dick for crack (a bad thing, as I am not into the peen). I was on my own at 14 and had to figure out how to pretend to be an adult and get all the things that adults did as a minor done.

 How I am not dead or in jail has always been a mystery to me. That being said, I saw and was a part of some of the very first real-world use cases of these cornz and I saw with my own 2 eyes that this magic internet money only used by illicit chemical vendors was in fact a complete replacement of almost everything I saw wrong with the current debt-driven system. I was lucky enough to live in a city where they had a pretty big (at the time) conference about BTC and was orangepilled early. And the more I looked into it the more I realized that this was the way out for me.

 I still remember sending in the postal money order to a stranger in another state and receiving my first cornz at a bit of a premium over spot. I was new and needed to at least get in on the game, so I waited patiently for the email with directions on how to claim my new purchase at 3.17 USD, I believe. I still have my alpaca socks!!! I was irresponsible, and I spent so much it almost makes me sick, but if we did not back in the day, we would not be where we are now. Never did I think we would actually get here.

 I don't consider myself rich in the sense of being some super multi-millionaire. I am not greedy. The one thing, though, none of us can buy is time... it's priceless. We can buy everything else... so in that regard, I don't regret any of the time I was able to harvest by selling a bit of these cornz. That being said, I do think I have set myself up to be able to get the most out of every day, hour, minute, or second I have left on this crazy place we call earth! It has been a reverse midlife crisis for me!

 As far as being overinvested... that's just it. I don't believe that is a term that works in my scenario, as I have been 100% all in for over a decade. I haven't been able to buy more, as I effectively was able to come up with a plan that, in my mind, could not rust away. I have no other income; I live very modestly on what I have, and it has grown to more than I think I will ever need. That's just it, as it keeps exponentially growing in fiat terms. There's no reason to get off this train till I find myself a rocket!

 I just don't think there is anything else I could diversify into that would not make me regret it, as every single other thing I have tried has been a failure when you measure it in BTC not dollars! I don't want children. I believe the world is a shitehole currently. and it's going to get worse. But we all have to play the hand we were dealt.

Again I am not complaining.
K  

Of course, I can think of scenarios in which a person who came from a broken family and presumptively without any steady income could have had gotten into bitcoin and then to be able to live off of their bitcoin, yet it would be quite rare, not very typical and filled with quite a bit of luck, since the fact of the matter is that it becomes quite difficult for anyone to continue to mostly HODL, even if spending some bitcoin along the way to be able to hold back from spending all of it, since some kind of a steady income would be needed - and if not steady in the traditional sense, at least steady enough to lessen the inclinations to spend too much too soon - especially during ripping periods, but even more illogical and irrational that a lot of us end up being to end up selling too much when the price is going down out of fear of loss.

And, yeah, it could be that you just hit the matter perfectly, but seems quite a stroke of luck if you had been able to succeed in not selling too much too soon.

Even with myself, I find my own situation a kind of miracle.. maybe luck or whatever, but I did have some income sources lined up and there were a few times where I could have had ended up tapping into my bitcoin at the wrong time, but I didn't and when I reflect back there was quite a bit of going against the grain for myself...

and kind of reminds me of vapourminer's story (sorry if I got it a bit wrong, but it is in my thinking like this) in which he said that for quite a period of time, his wife was pretty much arguing that they needed to be disciplined in the sense of making sure that they cash out a certain amount of BTC on a regular basis, yet at some point, both of them come to realize that they were thinking about bitcoin wrong - and the need to regularly sell was not as great as they had previously thought. 

And, similar with philip who even admits that he did not see some aspect of the light about bitcoin (I still question a bit if he actually sees the light about bitcoin) until sometime in or after 2017.. and surely he might not have had started to really hold onto bitcoin until after 2020.. I cannot remember his situation very well, even though I seem to hound him about it on a weekly basis for the past cycle and a half or more. I surely don't dislike Philip but sometimes he shares a lot and his ideas seem to have so much short-term fiat focus that it clashes with some of my own ways of trying to both think about bitcoin and to talk with others about bitcoin and why we do it and why there is a kind of need to build up a nest egg prior to spending from it in any meaningful way, even though there could be ways that any of us are spending from our bitcoin over the years and still cme out o.k... which was a bit of my argument with WatChe recently...  and sometimes it could still end up working out if we ongoingly spend but also ongoingly accumulate so that our accumulation is greatly outpacing our spends.

My own approach had been largely spend and replace between late 2013 and early 2017.. and perhaps even spend and replace after early 2017, even though in about early 2017, I kind of learned to let go of the idea that my BTC holdings had to ongoingly continue to grow.  My ideas of over accumulation and the ramifications of it has surely changed at various points since late 2014 when I had first considered that I might have reached such status of at least sufficient accumulation and in 2015 I was more inclined to consider myself in over accumulation status, yet for reasons somewhat (but not totally) different than how I would come to such assessment of over accumulation status these days.

Back above 110K and running! Breaking through several days of resistance. If we go above 111K the recovery could be quick… All eyes on MSTR this week. I’m crossing my fingers for a big week and the next two weeks really. My 4-year cycle indicator is flashing that the cycle top is quickly approaching.

Funny that some guys continue to have the cornz on a strict schedule, and even if such expectations might end up being correct, there should be less absolute ways of presenting such matters... even though surely many of us expect that the odds are quite great for more up to come, yet if we don't end up going through exponential UP (like some kind of a blow off top, even if it might ONLY be another 50% to 80% rise in the coming months, then it becomes more and more difficult to consider that a great downfall is coming.. yet I doubt that means the end of the 4-year cycle, even if the cycle might end up getting extended a bit and then perhaps even end up overlapping into time in which the next cycle should be beginning and the old cycle had not ended or gone through some kind of a meaningful crashening.

I have never had a real job. The "" was because of that. From very early on, I was a hustler. I remember my first real hustle was in grade school, selling candy to the younger kids while giving away the profits to the older kids to get to ride at the back of the bus.
A hustle will always be better than being told what to do.

I wonder?

Sometimes there can be advantages to get stuck in a large organization at a few different times in our lives and to see how they work from the inside and from individually experiencing aspects of them - like a kind of training about procedures and checks and balances that sometimes have to play out within organizations.   I don't even claim to have a vast swath of experiences, even though I have gone through some interesting ones when I was part of various organizations, and not necessarily making into some of the roles of my peers based on various choices that I made from within my own choice of contribution within places that had a variety of roles and a variety of interesting characters, even within the organizations.

Even the break up of those kinds of various relations can play out in interesting ways, to be part of such organization and then no longer being a part.

Oh yeah, and I recall some periods of doing volunteer work and even variations of internships, and some of the view of the inside and/or the dedication that might be needed could be "going through the motions" or maybe trying to learn at a more in-depth level, and gosh those experiences ended up being stepping stones, and sometimes caused me to wonder what the fuck I was doing by engaging myself in non-paying jobs for relatively extended periods of time merely for the sake of having some things that I could put on my resume when I applied for the BIGGER positions.. yet on my own, I likely would not have had even imagined the path that was going to take place or how that path ended up actually taking place as compared with the earlier visions and even sometimes the goal setting that can take place in youth as compared with how goal setting might play out differently as we get older and there might not be reasons to have goals beyond or reasons to engage in certain kinds of work, whether for pay or for "learning" experiences.. .or maybe to consider the extent to which whatever we might be doing is making any difference for others beyond our ability to say that we did such things.

By the way, I frequently had been skeptical of various kinds of authority which sometimes got me into pickles, yet also sometimes there is quite a bit of value in terms of trying to learn from folks who might be telling us what to do, especially in our youth when we are potentially most receptive to learning and finding out why some things in the world play out the way that they do, but yeah, even reporting for a job for several years and/or trying to stay on a schedule and being committed to doing certain kinds of work within the guidelines of the position can have some liberation, even within seeming constraints of acceptable versus not acceptable.

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.
Here are the USA nontaxable gift limitations through the past 45-ish years.
Here, the tax-free gift amount is €2690 per person per year. But if you receive it from someone abroad, there is no limit and you don't need to report it to taxes!

I was almost considering that I should have had amended my post to observe that for the first 40-ish years on the chart, from 1981 to 2021, the amount of increase had ONLY gone up $5k (which would have had been 50% from the original $10k in 1981 to $15k in 2021), and from 2022 to 2025, it went up $1k per year, which would have had been 26% for the last 4 years.

The tax free gift rate in the USA is a pretty good amount, relatively speaking compared with your mentioning your €2690 per person per year rate.