Quote from: kotajikikox on September 02, 2025, 11:54:31 AM

Are you aware of the term value bets? Maybe you know what it is but you just do not know that it is called that. Well anyway, value bets are bets where their odds are a lot higher than the true probability. A value bet is when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the actual likelihood of the outcome happening. This allows you to have an edge over the bookmakers. There are a few things you can do to find value bets. First is to get into smaller leagues. When the market is smaller, there are more room for error or mispriced lines. Make your own statistical observations. Do your own analysis by looking into stats and track record. Do not just depend on the bookmaker. Take into consideration also the public bias because bookmakers might depend on them too much. Sometimes bookmakers adjust lines based on where money is going not really based on true probability. With these in mind, you can score a few consistent payouts. It is not just about choosing the winner but taking advantage of the odds presented.

Good!!!!

This is actually how some bettors are making money... identifying in smaller leagues or less popular sports when the odds are "out of line" with the real probability of the final outcome.
But many newbies see this same opportunity and end up making two big mistakes...

The first is believing that every value bet is a winning bet... sometimes you will find a odds of 3.0 when it should be 2.5. Its an opportunity but it still has a 60% chance of going wrong. So the profit is always in the long run, with repeated good decisions... that is where the edge will appear.

And the other mistake is believing its easy... that you just open the website and find a "strange odds" and bet on it... it isnt quite like that... you need to research, follow the statistics, injuries, etc. to see if there really is a real advantage there... its not easy, often it is not obvious just by looking at it at first.