Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Version 1

Last scraped

Scraped on 10/09/2025, 03:56:49 UTC

Quote from: LoyceV on September 02, 2025, 01:57:09 PM

Quote from: d_eddie on September 02, 2025, 01:54:27 PM

Every move up is preceded by a few ants dumping.

The way I look at Bitcoin, it's dropping most of the time. If I'd have accurate historic data I'd do the math, but if I'd have to take a guess, it feels like it's dropping 90% of the time. But when it goes up, it goes up much faster than it went down.

Visualized:
down down down down down down down down down UP down down down down down down down down down UP down down down down down down ............

I would have bet the same, but I did a little data vibe coding with Cursor, and the results were unexpected.


============================================================
Statistical Summary Since 2012-01-01 
============================================================
Total trading days analyzed: 4993
Average daily change: 0.26%
Median daily change: 0.17%
Largest gain: 33.75%
Largest loss: -39.12%
Standard deviation: 3.53%

Days with gains: 2702 (54.1%)
Days with losses: 2277 (45.6%)
Days unchanged: 14 (0.3%)



============================================================
Summary by Change Category
============================================================
Up 10%+        :   57 days (  1.1%)
Up 7-10%       :   99 days (  2.0%)
Up 5-7%        :  147 days (  2.9%)
Up 3-5%        :  404 days (  8.1%)
Up 2-3%        :  362 days (  7.3%)
Up 1-2%        :  597 days ( 12.0%)
Up 0-1%        : 1050 days ( 21.0%)
Down 0-1%      :  959 days ( 19.2%)
Down 1-2%      :  527 days ( 10.6%)
Down 2-3%      :  273 days (  5.5%)
Down 3-5%      :  288 days (  5.8%)
Down 5-7%      :  110 days (  2.2%)
Down 7-10%     :   75 days (  1.5%)
Down 10%+      :   45 days (  0.9%)

So I decided to try to cherry pick some data that would fit our expectation

============================================================
Statistical Summary Since 2018-01-01
============================================================
Total trading days analyzed: 2801
Average daily change: 0.12%
Median daily change: 0.07%
Largest gain: 16.25%
Largest loss: -21.08%
Standard deviation: 2.90%

Days with gains: 1466 (52.3%)
Days with losses: 1335 (47.7%)
Days unchanged: 0 (0.0%)

============================================================
Summary by Change Category
============================================================
Up 10%+        :   14 days (  0.5%)
Up 7-10%       :   43 days (  1.5%)
Up 5-7%        :   62 days (  2.2%)
Up 3-5%        :  216 days (  7.7%)
Up 2-3%        :  197 days (  7.0%)
Up 1-2%        :  353 days ( 12.6%)
Up 0-1%        :  581 days ( 20.7%)
Down 0-1%      :  555 days ( 19.8%)
Down 1-2%      :  330 days ( 11.8%)
Down 2-3%      :  173 days (  6.2%)
Down 3-5%      :  174 days (  6.2%)
Down 5-7%      :   51 days (  1.8%)
Down 7-10%     :   38 days (  1.4%)
Down 10%+      :   14 days (  0.5%)

But nope, each time there appears to be more up than down days.

============================================================
Statistical Summary Since 2020-01-01
============================================================
Total trading days analyzed: 2071
Average daily change: 0.17%
Median daily change: 0.12%
Largest gain: 12.29%
Largest loss: -21.08%
Standard deviation: 2.70%

Days with gains: 1104 (53.3%)
Days with losses: 967 (46.7%)
Days unchanged: 0 (0.0%)

============================================================
Summary by Change Category
============================================================
Up 10%+        :    6 days (  0.3%)
Up 7-10%       :   30 days (  1.4%)
Up 5-7%        :   42 days (  2.0%)
Up 3-5%        :  152 days (  7.3%)
Up 2-3%        :  160 days (  7.7%)
Up 1-2%        :  266 days ( 12.8%)
Up 0-1%        :  448 days ( 21.6%)
Down 0-1%      :  416 days ( 20.1%)
Down 1-2%      :  250 days ( 12.1%)
Down 2-3%      :  126 days (  6.1%)
Down 3-5%      :  120 days (  5.8%)
Down 5-7%      :   28 days (  1.4%)
Down 7-10%     :   19 days (  0.9%)
Down 10%+      :    8 days (  0.4%)

The hourly or minute data could show otherwise.
Keep stacking. Price data updated here https://pastebin.com/3C67XqKW, from Bitstamp data.

Code:

https://pastebin.com/3C67XqKW

Original archived Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Scraped on 03/09/2025, 03:56:29 UTC