Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?
by
Miramax12
on 03/09/2025, 13:41:43 UTC
Of course, each of us is responsible for our own level of aggressiveness, and we should not let pressure from online or groups affect our choices in that there is nothing wrong with being aggressive as long as we do not end up overdoing it.  If we overdo it, then we have to suffer the consequences, and it might be 10 years down the road that we realize that we cannot turn back the clock an hopefully we did what we were able to do without overdoing it and taking ourselves out of the game due to our own overly aggressive screw up(s).
if I may ask, how does someone really decide where to draw the line between being aggressive enough to see good gains and being too aggressive to the point it turns risky?

Surely that is individual specific, and yeah, if you over do it, then you will pay financially and perhaps psychologically.

If you are brand new to investing and you only have around 3-ish weeks of back up funds, then maybe you have already been employing a system like that for years before you got involved in bitcoin, so you are already used to it and you can build your bitcoin investment practices and improve you cashflow management systems and/or practices based on your already having some experience.  

If you are barely new to the working world, then you may have more that you need to learn, so you might have to error on keeping some kind of a cash cushion to see how it works.  So maybe if you always had your parents paying for everything, then you are not used to having and/or managing expenses, and parents might help out their kids in this regard, and so you might know how much you may or may not be able to rely on your parent for emergency back up, but if they already told you what they want you to do, they might not be willing to help you if it appears to them that you are not following their guidelines.

You build on what you have, and if you had not really given much consideration to what you have, then you might have to write it down and to organize your thinking on the topic, yet there are some folks who don't want to write anything down, so they think that they can manage their situation based on their memory, which I would consider to be more prone towards making mistakes and surely a person might have to learn by making mistakes if he is not proactive in regards to trying to figure out his various limits and atttept to account for his cashflows and to project them out for 3 to 6 months or even some folks might be advantaged by projecting out 18 months or longer, even though the more important projections will be in the coming few months, but it might be important to have some ideas regarding how future cashflow projections might work out.. and yeah, some folks will be better at it than others, and my own assumption is that 97% or more of normal adults (perhaps older than 18 years) would already have these various math and common sense skills, even though some younger folks might still be learning some of these matters and also trying to figure out their own emotions and hormones and the extent to which they might need to interact with others (such as their peers) to help to figure out some of these kinds of matters that might largely revolve around figuring out their discretionary income and the extent that they are able to invest 4-10 years or longer, which surely the less real world experience that a person has (such as a student or someone living with their parents), then they may have to use their imagination and/or need to experiment with some of the matters in order to learn their limits or to put what they know into practice to see if they might understand what they are doing or if they might have to ask some questions to someone, whose judgment they trust.

I see a lot of posts from various members talking about bitcoin investment theories and cash flow management theories, yet sometimes it can be difficult to know the extent to which they are actually putting their own ideas (or their own interpretation of ideas) into some kind of a meaningful practice... so yeah, with practice we might already know that we are going to make some mistakes, and some kinds of mistakes might be more tolerable than other kinds of mistakes.. .yet putting ideas into practice is likely amongst the best of ways to figure out one's own limitations in light of his own particular circumstances.

By the way, a person who is a student might have several topics that they need to study, and so maybe they dedicate a few hours a week to personal finances and financial management.  Similar things can be true of a person who is in the working world.  Some jobs might require 40-60 hours per week, yet there still can be downtime and there can be time that guys can dedicate to learning their own approach to bitcoin and/or their cashflow management practices.  Sometimes it is not easy to fit in the learning and the practice and the adjustments from time to time that will hopefully be based upon ongoing learning.

Of course, each of us is responsible for our own level of aggressiveness, and we should not let pressure from online or groups affect our choices in that there is nothing wrong with being aggressive as long as we do not end up overdoing it.  If we overdo it, then we have to suffer the consequences, and it might be 10 years down the road that we realize that we cannot turn back the clock an hopefully we did what we were able to do without overdoing it and taking ourselves out of the game due to our own overly aggressive screw up(s).
if I may ask, how does someone really decide where to draw the line between being aggressive enough to see good gains and being too aggressive to the point it turns risky?
It would be difficult for JayJuanGee to tell you where to draw the line between being aggressive enough to see good gains because he doesn't know how good your discretionary income is, and for him not to tell you the amount that will take you out of the game, you are responsible to figure out your own level of aggressive because you know the size of your discretionary income and the amout you can comfortably use to accumulate bitcoin so that it won't take you out of the game. Being over aggressive is when you are accumulating bitcon with the amount of money that's way more above your discretionary income. So for you not to overdo your aggressive level and take yourself out of the game, always use your discretionary income to accumulate bitcoin and on no count should you use the money meant for your weekly or monthly expenses to accumulate bitcoin.

That is a fair point.

Let's say that your discretionary income tends to be $500 per month, so you consider that you can invest $100 per week, but if you make a mistake and you end up not having enough discretionary income then you might be kind of screwed and maybe you had an emergency fund to bail you out so your emergency fund only had $1k, but then you ended up using $500 to buy bitcoin, and so then you only had $500 left because you had to cover your expenses and then perhaps some kind of a real emergency hit simultaneously and you deplete your emergency fund.. and yeah of course, some folks choose to not keep much if any emergency fund, which sometimes might work out, until it doesn't.

If the mistake is small, then hopefully the guys learn from it, but if the guy had been accumulating bitcoin for 3 years, and then he has to tap into his bitcoin, and perhaps even use all of his BTC during a price drop, he might never be able to replace those BTC and to get them that cheap ever again.. so then maybe it takes him 7 years just to build his BTC holdings back to where it was, and he largely lost 7 years because he could have had double the bitcoin that he had 7 years earlier.. if he had been taking adequate precautions... and some folks are able to partially recover from their mistakes and some folks really overdo their mistake in great ways and might even compound one mistake after another, so that they turn a bad situation into even a worse situation by trying to take additional chances to try to win back their earlier position.

Maybe the TLDR would involve recognizing that each of us has to figure out the border upon which we are investing as aggressive as we can without over doing it.  Of course, if we suffer from a situation in which there were negative consequences either financially or psychologically, then that would be a sign that maybe we over did it... and likely positive or negative financial circumstances are more concrete to measure, yet if we are setting our matters up in such a way that we are contributing to our being really nervous about our set up, then we are likely overdoing it whether it results in negative financial outcomes or not.  We could set up a situation in an overly risky way, but then we end up getting lucky, so we did not suffer negative financial or psychological consequences even though we put our bitcoin at risk through our chosen behaviors.  So we could still end up being lucky even though we over did it and we engaged in bad practices.  

Sometimes the consequences for our overdoing it will be negligible or it could be somewhat damaging or it could be extremely damaging, yet I still consider that we have to figure out our threshold and even how risky that we are personally ready, willing and/or able to be.  There could be some situation where we purposefully decide to throw an additional $1k of our emergency funds into bitcoin (maybe that is 1 month of our expenses), and maybe we ONLY have 3 months in our emergency funds, so then we end up with only 2 months of emergency funds.  We may or may not end up getting lucky, so we have to consider for ourselves if we had overdone it or not and ultimately it is our choice, and if we continue to take a lot of risks it is likely to end up back firing on us, yet if we take risks once in a while (within reason), we might consider that as an acceptable way to carry out our investing and have a bit of spice once in a while from our perspective while realizing that our spice could end up blowing up on us and cause regrets.

It is something a lot of us have to figure out the hard way, i think the line between smart aggression and recklessness usually becomes clearer with experience, for me it comes down to understanding why i am a move if it's based on research. but if i am jumping in because of FOMO hype or pressure from others even indirectly that's a red flag, the moment emotion outweighs logic it gets dangerous. also knowing your own risk tolerance is the key, so many people can stomach wild volatility others can't sleep at night if they are overexposed., but if you are constantly stressed or second guessing you have probably crossed your personal line. at the end of the day, surviving the game is more important than hitting a home run every time, some times playing it a bit safer keep you in the long run where the real gains are made