Quote from: Bazil240 on May 06, 2014, 05:08:36 PM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 06, 2014, 03:15:42 PM

well you would have to sell lower (430) and hopefully buy lower. Do the math and decide if it all makes sense.
Selling now at 430. If sold at 430, then you take 120 loss per btc. If you think it will go to 310 (which would be a break even point....if my math is correct) then consider doing so (remembering it was 339 ish a few weeks ago....might or might not break that)

Your math may be flawed. The price doesn't have to drop to 300 for him to break even.

For example, lets say he invested his 55k @ $550 (100 coins) with the hope of doubling his money. Easy if he holds; just wait unit the price hits $1100 and profit 55k.

However, he could sell now and take the 12k hit (ouch). And let's say he either gets impatient or he catches the bottom at $380. Doomed, right?

Well, not really. 43k @$380 nets him ~113 coins. If he sells at the same time as if he had held ($1100), he'll have 124k.

124 - 55 - 12 = 57k

If he "catches the knife" @ 300, then his profit will be 90k.

So whether or not it is a good idea to sell now depends on both when he buys back and when he sells. It is only riskier to sell now if you believe $430 is the bottom and your not willing to wait to sell when it does go back up (if he buys back in @ $400 for whatever reason he will have to wait all the way until $1150 instead of $1100 to "break even").

I think my math was probably flawed, so let me see again. He bought at 550. I said if he sold at 430, he would sell off 120 off each coin as a loss. For him to make up that 120, he would have to buy back in at 120 lower than 430 which is 310.

I agree with what you said about it going back to 1100, which is why I was telling him that maybe he should not hope to catch lower and be greedy because it could stay here (and most likely go a little more down).

You are probably right or close when it comes to his future potential profit if it goes higher. And I personally think its best to keep what you have, maybe miss out on several coins (rather than have it rally up because it might take time to liquidate the coins and then rebuy in etc).