The rate cut is imminent, with 89% forecast last week. Perhaps it has grown higher, and indeed, I read a news which quoted "nearly 100%" forecast on the cut. These are big!
The 25bps is the popular prediction, and my main focus is on how the market will react in case of a higher or lower than rexpected release. I expect a tsunami-like market reaction in this case. While 25bps will have a little effect, holding the rate will be disappointing and might send the USD lower.
Something at least a bit small, is a must and there is no way back. I mean it is not about trump, I hate trump personally for example, but even I think rates should be cut, it is not really about republicans or democrats anymore, literally the whole nation believes it should be done.
The only people who may not think this way, should be people who have high amounts at banks getting great returns on their interest. Otherwise the whole nation is expecting the rate to go down, because it is not helping inflation anymore, it is what it is, might as well we drop the unemployment rate. Right now, there are more unemployed people in the USA than job openings, meaning even if you put all unemployed people into a job, then there won't be enough. Which we all know, not all unemployed people fill all the roles anyways.